scholarly journals No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Giglio ◽  
Matteo Maggiori ◽  
Johannes Stroebel

Econometrica ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 1047-1091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Giglio ◽  
Matteo Maggiori ◽  
Johannes Stroebel


Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1755-1766 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Domeij ◽  
Tore Ellingsen

Giglio, Maggiori, and Stroebel (2016) show that there is no significant price difference between freeholds and ultra‐long leaseholds in the UK housing market. They claim that this finding precludes the presence of large rational bubbles, as these can only attach to the price of freeholds. But the conclusion presumes that leaseholders cannot acquire bubbles through enfranchisement at favorable prices. We find that the presumption is violated. Enfranchisement rights are comprehensive and cheap to exercise. We also dispute the counter‐argument that cheap enfranchisement proves that market participants, if they have rational expectations, must have explicitly concluded that freehold prices are bubbleless.



2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Giglio ◽  
Matteo Maggiori ◽  
Johannes Stroebel


2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Dayan

Abstract Bayesian decision theory provides a simple formal elucidation of some of the ways that representation and representational abstraction are involved with, and exploit, both prediction and its rather distant cousin, predictive coding. Both model-free and model-based methods are involved.





2009 ◽  
pp. 4-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Zamaraev ◽  
A. Kiyutsevskaya ◽  
A. Nazarova ◽  
E. Sukhanov

The article analyzes the current economic conditions in Russia. Succession, distribution and the transmission mechanism of the world financial and economic crisis to the Russian economy are considered in this article as well as the changes in the banking system, share and housing markets. Production, consumption and investment on the boundary of 2008-2009 are described. The conclusion about the basic change of conditions of national economy development is presented.





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