Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?

Geopolitical factors are considered a crucial factor that makes a difference in crude oil prices. Over the last three decades, many political events occurred frequently, causing short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices. This paper aims to examine the dynamic correlation and causal link between geopolitical factors and crude oil prices based on data from June 1987 to February 2020. By using a time-varying copula approach, it is shown that the correlation between geopolitical factors and crude oil prices is strong during periods of political tensions. The GPA (geopolitical acts) index, as the real factor, drives the rise in prices of crude oil. Moreover, the dynamic correlation between geopolitical factors and crude oil prices shows strong volatility over time during periods of political tensions. We also found unidirectional causality running from geopolitical factors to crude oil prices by using the Granger causality test.

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Impacts of Changing Crude Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Conditions on Short-Term Output Fluctuations in Japan

Japanese Economy ◽

10.2753/jes1097-203x360205 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 36 (2) ◽

pp. 103-114

Author(s):

Yu Hsing

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Short Term ◽

Macroeconomic Conditions ◽

Output Fluctuations ◽

Crude Oil Prices

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Short-Term Compumetric Forecast of Crude Oil Prices

IFAC Proceedings Volumes ◽

10.1016/s1474-6670(17)33092-6 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 34 (20) ◽

pp. 365-370 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

M.A. Kaboudan

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Short Term ◽

Crude Oil Prices

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Smart System for Detecting Anomalies In Crude Oil Prices Using Long Short-Term Memory

International Journal of Advanced Trends in Computer Science and Engineering ◽

10.30534/ijatcse/2021/071062021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 3122-3127

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Experimental Result ◽

Short Term ◽

Smart System ◽

Term Memory ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Long Short Term Memory

Crude oil is leading globally, as it represents roughly about 33% of the total energy consumed globally. It is one of the most significant exchanged resources in the world, oil in one way or the other affects our day to day routines, like transportation, cooking and power, and other numerous petrochemical items going from the things we use to the things we wear. The increment sought after for petroleum derivatives is on a persistent ascent, making it vital for the oil and gas industry to think of new methodologies for further developing activity. This paper presents a smart system for detecting anomalies in crude oil prices. The experimental process of the proposed system is of two phases. The first phase has to do with the pre-processing stage, and the training stage while the second phase of the experiment has to do with the building/training of the Long Short-Term Memory algorithm. The experimental result shows that LSTM model had an accuracy result of 98%. The result further shows that our proposed model is under fitting since the training loss is lesser than the validation loss. The proposed model was saved and was used in detecting anomalies of the crude oil prices ranging from 1990 to 2020.

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The dynamic information spill-over effect of WTI crude oil prices on China’s traditional energy sectors

China Agricultural Economic Review ◽

10.1108/caer-05-2017-0094 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 516-534 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Yue-Jun Zhang ◽

Yao-Bin Wu

Keyword(s):

Crude Oil ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Petroleum Processing ◽

Time Varying ◽

Causality Test ◽

Content Type ◽

Market Values ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Linear And Nonlinear

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.Design/methodology/approachHong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.Originality/valueThe general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.

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