scholarly journals Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Convolution Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 8498
Author(s):  
Tingting Zhu ◽  
Yiren Guo ◽  
Zhenye Li ◽  
Cong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Direct Normal Irradiance ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Photovoltaic power generation is highly valued and has developed rapidly throughout the world. However, the fluctuation of solar irradiance affects the stability of the photovoltaic power system and endangers the safety of the power grid. Therefore, ultra-short-term solar irradiance predictions are widely used to provide decision support for power dispatching systems. Although a great deal of research has been done, there is still room for improvement regarding the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance and diffuse irradiance. This study took the direct normal irradiance (DNI) as prediction target and proposed a Siamese convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (SCNN-LSTM) model to predict the inter-hour DNI by combining the time-dependent spatial features of total sky images and historical meteorological observations. First, the features of total sky images were automatically extracted using a Siamese CNN to describe the cloud information. Next, the image features and meteorological observations were fused and then predicted the DNI in 10-min ahead using an LSTM. To verify the validity of the proposed SCNN-LSTM model, several experiments were carried out using two-year historical observation data provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results show that the proposed method achieved nRMSE of 23.47% and forecast skill of 24.51% for the whole year of 2014, and it also did better than some published methods especially under clear sky and rainy days.

scholarly journals Short-term power prediction of photovoltaic power station based on long short-term memory-back-propagation

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 155014771988313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Hua ◽  
Erxi Zhu ◽  
Liang Kuang ◽  
Dechang Pi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Accurate prediction of the generation capacity of photovoltaic systems is fundamental to ensuring the stability of the grid and to performing scheduling arrangements correctly. In view of the temporal defect and the local minimum problem of back-propagation neural network, a forecasting method of power generation based on long short-term memory-back-propagation is proposed. On this basis, the traditional prediction data set is improved. According to the three traditional methods listed in this article, we propose a fourth method to improve the traditional photovoltaic power station short-term power generation prediction. Compared with the traditional method, the long short-term memory-back-propagation neural network based on the improved data set has a lower prediction error. At the same time, a horizontal comparison with the multiple linear regression and the support vector machine shows that the long short-term memory-back-propagation method has several advantages. Based on the long short-term memory-back-propagation neural network, the short-term forecasting method proposed in this article for generating capacity of photovoltaic power stations will provide a basis for dispatching plan and optimizing operation of power grid.

scholarly journals Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Long Short Term Memory Neural Network and Attention Mechanism

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 78063-78074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hangxia Zhou ◽  
Yujin Zhang ◽  
Lingfan Yang ◽  
Qian Liu ◽  
Ke Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Power Forecasting

scholarly journals Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Munir Husein ◽  
Il-Yop Chung
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Irradiance Data ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In microgrids, forecasting solar power output is crucial for optimizing operation and reducing the impact of uncertainty. To forecast solar power output, it is essential to forecast solar irradiance, which typically requires historical solar irradiance data. These data are often unavailable for residential and commercial microgrids that incorporate solar photovoltaic. In this study, we propose an hourly day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting model that does not depend on the historical solar irradiance data; it uses only widely available weather data, namely, dry-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, and relative humidity. The model was developed using a deep, long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN). We compare this approach with a feedforward neural network (FFNN), which is a method with a proven record of accomplishment in solar irradiance forecasting. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of this approach, we performed six experiments using measurement data from weather stations in Germany, U.S.A, Switzerland, and South Korea, which all have distinct climate types. Experiment results show that the proposed approach is more accurate than FFNN, and achieves the accuracy of up to 60.31 W/m2 in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE). Moreover, compared with the persistence model, the proposed model achieves average forecast skill of 50.90% and up to 68.89% in some datasets. In addition, to demonstrate the effect of using a particular forecasting model on the microgrid operation optimization, we simulate a one-year operation of a commercial building microgrid. Results show that the proposed approach is more accurate, and leads to a 2% rise in annual energy savings compared with FFNN.

scholarly journals Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on a Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu ◽  
Alexandru Pîrjan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Storage Room ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Commercial Center ◽  
Business And Management

The accurate forecasting of the hourly month-ahead electricity consumption represents a very important aspect for non-household electricity consumers and system operators, and at the same time represents a key factor in what regards energy efficiency and achieving sustainable economic, business, and management operations. In this context, we have devised, developed, and validated within the paper an hourly month ahead electricity consumption forecasting method. This method is based on a bidirectional long-short-term memory (BiLSTM) artificial neural network (ANN) enhanced with a multiple simultaneously decreasing delays approach coupled with function fitting neural networks (FITNETs). The developed method targets the hourly month-ahead total electricity consumption at the level of a commercial center-type consumer and for the hourly month ahead consumption of its refrigerator storage room. The developed approach offers excellent forecasting results, highlighted by the validation stage’s results along with the registered performance metrics, namely 0.0495 for the root mean square error (RMSE) performance metric for the total hourly month-ahead electricity consumption and 0.0284 for the refrigerator storage room. We aimed for and managed to attain an hourly month-ahead consumed electricity prediction without experiencing a significant drop in the forecasting accuracy that usually tends to occur after the first two weeks, therefore achieving a reliable method that satisfies the contractor’s needs, being able to enhance his/her activity from the economic, business, and management perspectives. Even if the devised, developed, and validated forecasting solution for the hourly consumption targets a commercial center-type consumer, based on its accuracy, this solution can also represent a useful tool for other non-household electricity consumers due to its generalization capability.

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