Weights Allocation Based on Optimal Uncertainty Evaluation

In the traditional measurement theory, precision is defined as the dispersion of measured value, and is used as the basis of weights calculation in the adjustment of measurement data with different qualities, which leads to the trouble that trueness is completely ignored in the weight allocation. In this paper, following the pure concepts of probability theory, the measured value (observed value) is regarded as a constant, the error as a random variable, and the variance is the dispersion of all possible values of an unknown error. Thus, a rigorous formula for weights calculation and variance propagation is derived, which solves the theoretical trouble of determining the weight values in the adjustment of multi-channel observation data with different qualities. The results show that the optimal weights are not only determined by the covariance array of observation errors, but also related to the model of adjustment.

Methodological approach to characterizing pollution of natural water bodies using satellite data with account of aggregation of finely dispersed mineral processing waste

The level of the environmental impact of the mining industry specifies the urgency of ecological management of the natural resources based on the satellite monitoring data. The high content of the suspended mineral particles in the industrial waters and the requirement to reduce their access to the natural water reservoirs determine the need to characterize the mininginduced pollution that can be carried out correctly with due account of the aggregate stability of dispersions. In spite of the theoretical concepts, prediction of the particles aggregation is limited by a lack of data on their interaction parameters. In order to parametrize the interactions in the mineral-water-mineral system it is proposed to use experimental data on aggregation of finely dispersed particles, obtained by the laser diffraction method in the equilibrium conditions. For this purpose the procedure of the experimental appraisal of the effective Hamaker constants has been elaborated using ores of developed deposits of the Kola mining complex as an example. The authors have studied the conditions of the surface layer of natural water reservoirs in the most industrially developed central part of the Murmansk region and defined characteristics of pollution with finely dispersed by-products of the mineral raw material treatment, according to the satellite observation data of the spatial distribution of the normalized difference turbidity index. The authors have established that the least propagation of the pollution into the natural water reservoirs is observed in the case of the apatite-nepheline ores processing by-products, which is explained by the effective aggregation of the finely dispersed nepheline particles. The proposed approach to apply data on mineral particles aggregation for interpretation of the satellite observations does not require carrying out in-situ observations and makes it possible to identify the mining-induced pollution of natural water reservoirs in industrial territories using suspended particles.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework for Air Quality Forecasts in Northeast Asia: A Case Study Utilizing Virtual Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer and Surface Monitored Aerosol Data

Prior knowledge of the effectiveness of new observation instruments or new data streams for air quality can contribute significantly to shaping the policy and budget planning related to those instruments and data. In view of this, one of the main purposes of the development and application of the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) is to assess the potential impact of new observations on the quality of the current monitoring or forecasting systems, thereby making this framework valuable. This study introduces the overall OSSE framework established to support air quality forecasting and the details of its individual components. Furthermore, it shows case study results from Northeast Asia and the potential benefits of the new observation data scenarios on the PM2.5 forecasting skills, including the PM data from 200 virtual monitoring sites in the Gobi Desert and North Korean non-forest areas (NEWPM) and the aerosol optical depths (AOD) data from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS AOD). Performance statistics suggest that the concurrent assimilation of the NEWPM and the PM data from current monitoring sites in China and South Korea can improve the PM2.5 concentration forecasts in South Korea by 66.4% on average for October 2017 and 95.1% on average for February 2018. Assimilating the GEMS AOD improved the performance of the PM2.5 forecasts in South Korea for October 2017 by approximately 68.4% (~78.9% for February 2018). This OSSE framework is expected to be continuously implemented to verify its utilization potential for various air quality observation systems and data scenarios. Hopefully, this kind of application result will aid environmental researchers and decision-makers in performing additional in-depth studies for the improvement of PM air quality forecasts.

Long and Short-Term Coastal Changes Assessment Using Earth Observation Data and GIS Analysis: The Case of Sperchios River Delta

The present study provides information about the evolution of the Sperchios River deltaic area over the last 6500 years. Coastal changes, due to natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities, were analyzed utilizing a variety of geospatial data such as historic records, topographic maps, aerial photos, and satellite images, covering a period from 4500 BC to 2020. A qualitative approach for the period, from 4500 BC to 1852, and a quantitative analysis, from 1852 to the present day, were employed. Considering their scale and overall quality, the data were processed and georeferenced in detail based on the very high-resolution orthophoto datasets of the area. Then, the multitemporal shorelines were delineated in a geographical information system platform. Two different methods were utilized for the estimation of the shoreline changes and trends, namely the coastal change area method and the cross-section analysis, by implementing the digital shoreline analysis system with two statistical approaches, the end point rate and the linear regression rate. Significant river flow and coastline changes were observed with the overall increase in the delta area throughout the study period reaching 135 km2 (mean annual growth of 0.02 km2/yr) and the higher accretion rates to be detected during the periods 1805–1852, 1908–1945 and 1960–1986, especially at the central and north part of the gulf. During the last three decades, the coastline has remained relatively stable with a decreasing tendency, which, along with the expected sea-level rise due to climate change, can infer significant threats for the coastal zone in the near future.

Triggering Mechanism of Extreme Wind over the Complex Mountain Area in Dali Region on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China

Wind disasters are responsible for significant physical destruction, injury, loss of life, and economic damage. This study examined the extreme wind triggering mechanism over a typical mountain area with complex terrain, i.e., Dali city in Yunnan Province on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in China. Using the observation data, we first optimized the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration and parametrization schemes for better simulating the wind in this area using a 1-month simulation. Then, the triggering mechanism of extreme wind was investigated by performing a series of sensitive experiments based on a typical extreme wind case. The results indicate that terrain uplift is critical for triggering the local 8–9-scale (the wind velocity between 17.2 and 24.4 m/s) extreme winds over high topography regions. When a large-scale atmospheric circulation is passing, accompanied with regional terrain lifting, the instantaneous wind velocity can reach 9- to 10-scale (the mean wind velocity between 20.8 and 28.4 m/s), causing broken power lines. These results suggest that it is essential to avoid sites where these factors can affect the operation of power transmission lines, or to establish warning systems in the existing systems.

Initial state estimation from limited observations of the heat equation in metric graphs

This paper deals with initial state estimation problems of the heat equation in equilateral metric graphs being admitted to have cycles. Particularly, we are concerned with suitable placements of observation points in order to uniquely determine the initial state from observation data. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for suitable placements of observation points, and such suitable placements are determined from transition matrices of metric graphs. From numerical simulations, we confirm effectiveness of a necessary and sufficient condition.

Prediction of Shoreline Change for the Calculation of the Integrated Littoral Sediment Budget

The severe coastal erosions are being accelerated along the east coast of South Korea owing to the intermittent erosions and depositions caused by the imbalance between the effective sediment volume supplied from coasts and rivers and the sediment transport rate. Consequently, many studies are being conducted to develop coastal-erosion reduction measures. To accurately determine the cause of coastal erosion, the causes of the erosion and deposition should be accurately diagnosed, and a comprehensive evaluation system for the sediment transport mechanism in the watershed and sea while considering regional characteristics is required. In particular, realizing the evaluation of the effective sediment volume that flows from the river to the sea through observations is a highly challenging task, and various research and developments are required to realize it, as it is still in the basic research stage. The purpose of this study was to systematically analyze the comprehensive sediment budget for coastal areas. First, an analytical system was developed. Then, a shoreline model was constructed by considering the size of the mixed particles. The parameters required for developing the model were determined using the observation data to improve the shoreline model. A sediment runoff model was applied to evaluate the effective sediment volume supplied from the river to the sea, and the applicability of this model was evaluated by comparing it with the sediment supply volume according to the soil and water assessment tool model. The representative wave and the input parameters of the model were set using the observation data of several years. It was found that the prediction performance of the shoreline change model improved when the effective sediment volume was considered, and the particles of the sediment on the shore were assumed to comprise multiple sizes. In particular, the prediction performance improved when the balance of the sediment budget was adjusted by applying a groin having a structurally similar performance to take into consideration the geographic features of the Deokbongsan (island) in front of the river mouth bar. The model demonstrated a good performance in reproducing long-term shoreline changes when the characteristics of the sea waves and the effective sediment volume were considered.