Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

Abstract Background: Tests have false positive or false negative results, which, if not properly accounted for, may provide misleading apparent prevalence estimates based on the observed rate of positive tests and not the true disease prevalence estimates. Methods to estimate the true prevalence of disease, adjusting for the sensitivity and the specificity of the diagnostic tests are available and can be applied, though, such procedures can be cumbersome to researchers with or without a solid statistical background.Objective: To create a web-based application that integrates statistical methods for Bayesian inference of true disease prevalence based on prior elicitation for the accuracy of the diagnostic tests. This tool allows practitioners to simultaneously analyse and visualize results while using interactive sliders and output prior/posterior plots.Methods: Three methods for prevalence prior elicitation and four core families of Bayesian methods have been combined and incorporated in this web tool. |tPRiors| user interface has been developed with R and Shiny and may be freely accessed on-line.Results: |tPRiors| allows researchers to use preloaded data or upload their own datasets and perform analysis on either single or multiple population groups clusters), allowing, if needed, for excess zero prevalence. The final report is exported in raw parts either as .rdata or .png files. We utilize a real multiple-population and a toy single-population dataset to demonstrate the robustness and capabilities of |tPRiors|.Conclusions: We expect |tPRiors| to be helpful for researchers interested in true disease prevalence estimation and they are keen on accounting for prior information. |tPRiors| acts both as a statistical tool and a simplified step-by-step statistical framework that facilitates the use of complex Bayesian methods. The application of |tPRiors| is expected to aid standardization of practices in the field of Bayesian modelling on subject and multiple group-based true prevalence estimation.

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Study of diseases prevalence among children in areas of spacerocket activity

Bulletin of Siberian Medicine ◽

10.20538/1682-0363-2002-4-21-27 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 21-27

Author(s):

G. Ya. Evlashevsky

Keyword(s):

Ecological Risk ◽

Disease Prevalence ◽

Control Group ◽

Prevalence Rates ◽

Rocket Fuel ◽

Space Rocket ◽

Direct Association ◽

Liquid Rocket ◽

And Control ◽

Fuel Components

An objective of this investigation is to study disease prevalence in children residing at territories of falling of separable parts from second stages of space crafts rocket-carriers. The areas of falling and the adjacent areas are the territories of increased ecological risk. The reason is that they are used as dumps for wastes from space-rocket activity: metal fragments of worn-out second stages of rocket-carriers and toxic guarantee remnants of liquid rocket fuel components. In the scope of the study a profound medical examination of children (0—14 years) has been conducted. The main and control group included correspondingly 750 and 312 children. Obtained intensive, extensive and standardized rates of pathological affection have been analyzed (table 1—3). Prevalence rates of pathologies in children residing at territories, adjacent to areas of falling of parts of rocketcarriers, increase significantly the control rates. This fact provides steady scientific claims for discussion of direct association between the observed pathology and prolonged space-rocket activity in the region.

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