Remaining life prediction is an effective way to optimize maintenance strategy and improve service life for light-emitting diode driving power in rail vehicle carriage. In this article, a Wiener process–based remaining life prediction method is proposed with the analysis of performance degradation data of light-emitting diode driving power in rail vehicle carriage. First, the temperature and humidity stress accelerated degradation tests are put forward in order to measure the output current of light-emitting diode driving power. Based on the output current, the accelerated degradation model is established. The drift and diffusion coefficients of the Wiener process are then obtained without prior information. Finally, the reliability of light-emitting diode driving power in rail vehicle carriage is assessed and the remaining lifetime is predicted after updating the degradation model parameters with Bayesian inference. The results show that the proposed method can improve the precision of assessment and reduce the uncertainty of prediction significantly. It also provides a potential solution for life prediction of other similar products.
A General Accelerated Degradation Model Based on the Wiener Process
