scholarly journals Modeling and Estimating Volatility of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 750
Author(s):  
Sherzod N. Tashpulatov
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Power Market ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Generalized Error Distribution ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

We model day-ahead electricity prices of the UK power market using skew generalized error distribution. This distribution allows us to take into account the features of asymmetry, heavy tails, and a peak higher than in normal or Student’s t distributions. The adequacy of the estimated volatility model is verified using various tests and criteria. A correctly specified volatility model can be used for analyzing the impact of reforms or other events. We find that, after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, price level and volatility increased.

scholarly journals The Impact of Behavioral and Structural Remedies on Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Electricity Market

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3420
Author(s):  
Sherzod Tashpulatov
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

During the liberalization process the UK regulatory authority introduced a behavioral remedy (through price-cap regulation) and structural remedy (through divestment series) in order to mitigate an exercise of market power and lower the influence of incumbent producers on wholesale electricity prices. We study the impact of these remedies on the dynamics of the wholesale electricity price during the peak-demand period over trading days. An extended autoregressive and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (AR–ARCH) model with a novel skew generalized error distribution is used. This distribution allows one to capture the features of asymmetry, excess kurtosis, and heavy tails. The model is extended to include individual incumbent producers’ market shares and other explanatory variables reflecting seasonal patterns and regulatory regimes. We find that the structural remedy was more successful than the behavioral remedy because the effect of market share of the previously larger incumbent producer on the wholesale price is statistically insignificant. Moreover, after the second series of divestments, price volatility reduced.

scholarly journals The impact of neoadjuvant chemotherapy on cardiopulmonary physical fitness in gastro-oesophageal adenocarcinoma

2016 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. 396-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
RCF Sinclair ◽  
M Navidi ◽  
SM Griffin ◽  
K Sumpter
Keyword(s):  
Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy ◽  
Oxygen Uptake ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing ◽  
Peak Oxygen Uptake ◽  
Perioperative Risk ◽  
Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Operable oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma management in the UK includes three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by resection. Determination of oxygen uptake at the anaerobic threshold (AT) with cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is used to objectively measure cardiorespiratory reserve. Oxygen uptake at AT predicts perioperative risk, with low values associated with increased morbidity. Previous studies indicate NAC may have a detrimental impact on cardiorespiratory reserve. Methods CPET was completed by 30 patients before and after a standardised NAC protocol. The ventilatory AT was determined using the V-slope method, and the peak oxygen uptake and ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide measured. Median AT before and after chemotherapy was compared using a paired Student’s t-test. Results Median oxygen uptake at AT pre- and post-NAC was 13.9±3.1 ml/kg/min and 11.5±2.0 ml/kg/min, respectively. The mean decrease was 2.4 ml/kg/min (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3–3.85; p<0.001). Median peak oxygen delivery also decreased by 2.17 ml/kg/min (95% CI 1.02–3.84; p=0.001) after NAC. Ventilatory equivalents were unchanged. Conclusions This reduction in AT objectively quantifies a decrease in cardiorespiratory reserve after NAC. Patients with lower cardiorespiratory reserve have increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Preventing this decrease in cardiorespiratory reserve during chemotherapy, or optimising the timing of surgical resection after recovery of AT, may allow perioperative risk-reduction.

The Film World’s Cooperative Store: Institutions and Films of the 1930s and 1940s

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Claire Thomson
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Meat Products ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Early History ◽  
World War ◽  
International Context ◽  
German Occupation ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This chapter traces the early history of state-sponsored informational filmmaking in Denmark, emphasising its organisation as a ‘cooperative’ of organisations and government agencies. After an account of the establishment and early development of the agency Dansk Kulturfilm in the 1930s, the chapter considers two of its earliest productions, both process films documenting the manufacture of bricks and meat products. The broader context of documentary in Denmark is fleshed out with an account of the production and reception of Poul Henningsen’s seminal film Danmark (1935), and the international context is accounted for with an overview of the development of state-supported filmmaking in the UK, Italy and Germany. Developments in the funding and output of Dansk Kulturfilm up to World War II are outlined, followed by an account of the impact of the German Occupation of Denmark on domestic informational film. The establishment of the Danish Government Film Committee or Ministeriernes Filmudvalg kick-started aprofessionalisation of state-sponsored filmmaking, and two wartime public information films are briefly analysed as examples of its early output. The chapter concludes with an account of the relations between the Danish Resistance and an emerging generation of documentarists.

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