scholarly journals Carbon Futures Trading and Short-Term Price Prediction: An Analysis Using the Fractal Market Hypothesis and Evolutionary Computing

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1005
Author(s):  
Marc Lamphiere ◽  
Jonathan Blackledge ◽  
Derek Kearney
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Evolutionary Computing ◽  
Computing Methods ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
Derivative Markets ◽  
Fractal Market Hypothesis

This paper presents trend prediction results based on backtesting of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme futures market. This is based on the Intercontinental Exchange from 2005 to 2019. An alternative trend prediction strategy is taken that is predicated on an application of the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) in order to develop an indicator that is predictive of short term future behaviour. To achieve this, we consider that a change in the polarity of the Lyapunov-to-Volatility Ratio precedes an associated change in the trend of the European Union Allowances (EUAs) price signal. The application of the FMH in this case is demonstrated to provide a useful tool in order to assess the likelihood of the market becoming bear or bull dominant, thereby helping to inform carbon trading investment decisions. Under specific conditions, Evolutionary Computing methods are utilised in order to optimise specific trading execution points within a trend and improve the potential profitability of trading returns. Although the approach may well be of value for general energy commodity futures trading (and indeed the wider financial and commodity derivative markets), this paper presents the application of an investment indicator for EUA carbon futures risk modelling and investment trend analysis only.

Unfolding the case of returnees: How the European Union and its member States are addressing the return of foreign fighters and their families

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Carlota Rigotti ◽  
Júlia Zomignani Barboza
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
Term Response

Abstract The return of foreign fighters and their families to the European Union has mostly been considered a security threat by member States, which consequently adopt repressive measures aimed at providing an immediate, short-term response to this perceived threat. In addition to this strong-arm approach, reintegration strategies have also been used to prevent returnees from falling back into terrorism and to break down barriers of hostility between citizens in the long term. Amidst these different strategies, this paper seeks to identify which methods are most desirable for handling returnees.

scholarly journals The Effect of Remittances on Poverty in the Emerging Countries of the European Union

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anca Mehedintu ◽  
Georgeta Soava ◽  
Mihaela Sterpu
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Poverty Threshold

In this paper we study the evolution of remittances and risk of poverty threshold for nine emerging countries in the European Union and analyzed the evolution and trend of the share of remittances in the risk of poverty threshold. The analysis was performed on data taken from the Eurostat database for the period 2005–2017. The statistical analysis of the data showed that the evolution of both remittances and risk of poverty threshold was heavily influenced by the global economic crisis. Although after the crisis, the risk of poverty threshold has seen a growing trend in all emerging countries, the remittances have experienced sinuous variations, dramatic declines for some of the countries (drastically for Romania and Latvia) and significant increases for others (Hungary). The results of the analysis using time-dependent regression models lead to the conclusion that, although the share of remittances in risk of poverty threshold diminished abruptly after the 2009 economic crisis, in the short term it is expected to maintain a growth trend for most of the analyzed countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia), followed downward tendency after 2018 for Bulgaria and Romania, and after 2020 for Hungary and Lithuania. For Latvia and Estonia, both quadratic and cubic models estimate a decreasing evolution.

ANALYSIS OF THE NATURE OF THE EUROPEAN DIGITAL TAX IN COMPARISON WITH THE CURRENT VAT SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY AND MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC ENTITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
S. V. ZAYTSEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
The Many

In March 2018 the European Commission presented a proposal to adopt a digital services tax (DST) on certain types of revenues of multinational digital Companies. The purpose of the digital services tax is to compensate in the short term for the low level of corporate taxation of these companies in the European Union and thus meet the urgent need of civil society for greater tax fairness. DST is presented as an indirect tax on turnover and is often compared to value-added tax (VAT). In this article, the author seeks to highlight the many differences that exist between the harmonized European Union VAT and the new DST. In addition, the author challenges the idea that the DST will actually be an indirect tax and, most importantly, that it will effectively increase tax justice in the European Union.

Trading Schemes, Risks, and Costs: The Cases of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Renewables Obligation

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 938-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Toke
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Command And Control ◽  
False Belief ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
And Control

The appropriateness and importance of market-based environmental governance systems vary according to different cases. Although so-called ‘market trading’ regimes can be useful in some circumstances, a false belief in the inevitability of their cost-effectiveness compared with so-called ‘command and control’ systems has allowed policy distortions to occur. So-called ‘command and control’ policies are being underemphasised, despite the fact that they may achieve reductions in carbon emissions that are cheaper than those likely to be achieved through emissions (or ‘certificate’) trading regimes. I address theoretical arguments which I then place in context with analysis of some features of the British Renewables Obligation and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.

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