Risk analysis model and agricultural derivative market use

This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.

The Oil Futures and Options Markets in 2020: The “Message from Markets”

This paper considers the response of the equity and oil markets to the onset of crisis conditions after February 15, 2020. Based on derivative markets for equities and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude-oil futures contracts, implied equity and oil volatilities quantify the depth of the crisis and contrast it with the previous ones. The estimated Black [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 167–179] vol skew and Merton [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125–144] option model parameters are able to discern between demand- and supply-side facets. The time when the futures curve is in contango identifies the beginning and, to date, conclusion of the crisis. Using the CAPM, co-movement of oil and equity prices permits computing forecasts of spot oil prices. In considering these events, we recognize the essential role of prices in financial markets: They are conveyors of information, the “Message from Markets,” in which financial theory proves useful, practical and applicable.

Analysis of risk spillover effect of copper option in China

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the changes in the risk spillover effects between the copper spot and futures markets before and after the issuance of copper options, analyze the risk spillover effects between the three markets after the issuance of the options and can provide effective suggestions for regulators and investors who hedge risks. Design/methodology/approach The MV-CAViaR model is an extended form of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to the quantile model, and it is also a special form of the MVMQ-CAViaR model. Based on the VAR quantile model, this model has undergone continuous promotion of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (CAViaR) and the Multi-quantile Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (MQ-CAViaR), and finally got the current form of the model. Findings The issuance of options has led to certain changes in the risk spillover effect between the copper spot and its derivative markets, and the risk aggregation effect in the futures market has always been significant. Therefore, when supervising the copper product market and investors using copper derivatives to avoid market risks, they need to pay attention to the impact of futures on the spot market, the impact of options on the futures market and the risk spillover effects of spot and futures on the options market. Practical implications The empirical results of this paper can be used to hedge market risk investment strategies, and the changes in market relationships also provide an effective basis for the supervision of the copper product market by the supervisory authority. Originality/value It is the first literature research to discuss the risk and the impact of spillover effects of copper options on China copper market and its derivative markets. The MV-CAViaR model can capture the mutual risk influence between markets by modeling multiple markets simultaneously.

The Dynamics of Foreign Exchange Derivative Use in China

The aim of this study is to determine the main factors affecting the use of foreign exchange hedging instruments by Chinese firms, following their regulatory changes in the derivative markets. The original contributions to this literature include the use of a panel dataset of 316 Chinese firms with the data running from 2012 to 2017 and a dynamic random effects probability approach. The results suggest the main determinants of derivative use are the overseas trade conducted by these firms, with some evidence of non-linearity, as well as firms being more likely to use derivatives when there is more information asymmetry and agency problems, potentially due to greater controls on their use in China.

Carbon Futures Trading and Short-Term Price Prediction: An Analysis Using the Fractal Market Hypothesis and Evolutionary Computing

This paper presents trend prediction results based on backtesting of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme futures market. This is based on the Intercontinental Exchange from 2005 to 2019. An alternative trend prediction strategy is taken that is predicated on an application of the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) in order to develop an indicator that is predictive of short term future behaviour. To achieve this, we consider that a change in the polarity of the Lyapunov-to-Volatility Ratio precedes an associated change in the trend of the European Union Allowances (EUAs) price signal. The application of the FMH in this case is demonstrated to provide a useful tool in order to assess the likelihood of the market becoming bear or bull dominant, thereby helping to inform carbon trading investment decisions. Under specific conditions, Evolutionary Computing methods are utilised in order to optimise specific trading execution points within a trend and improve the potential profitability of trading returns. Although the approach may well be of value for general energy commodity futures trading (and indeed the wider financial and commodity derivative markets), this paper presents the application of an investment indicator for EUA carbon futures risk modelling and investment trend analysis only.

Infrastructure, ontology and meaning: The endogenous development of economic ideas

In contrast to work showing exogenous social influences on the production of economic ideas, this article asks how a market’s own infrastructure can endogenously shape practitioners’ economic perspectives. It investigates this question by comparing the evolution of opposed views on speculation across two 19th-century American futures markets. The analysis locates the origins of this divergence in features of the grading, receipting and contracting processes that linked these new derivative markets to underlying agricultural markets. This connective infrastructure both made possible new speculative practices and established market ontologies from which traders theorized the economic significance of those practices. These ontologies served as distinct cores around which incompatible constellations of ideas – including beliefs about price relations between spot and futures markets, the character of the global market and the motives and capabilities of speculators – were elaborated.

DERIVATIVE MARKETS-USING OPTIONS TRADING STRATEGY IN MONGOLIAN STOCK MARKET

This study identifies some opportunities to introduce derivative instruments based on the practical experience of other countries, and provides some estimates of the implementation of derivative market mechanisms, pricing, and trading strategies. KEY WORDS: Financial derivative, option, and spread

Early Results on Depth of the Nascent Kenyan Derivative Market

Despite their importance in hedging against risk and reducing price uncertainty, derivative markets remain undeveloped or absent in many African countries. This paper describes market depth using key trends observed in the Kenyan derivatives market for the first 30 weeks of trading using mixed methods. Market depth was measured by the number of open interests of 142 trading days (30 weeks. The market was described using trend analysis, tests of means, and thematic analysis. The results revealed a market highly dominated by one company's single stock futures (Safaricom Plc), whose overall trade was 68% of the 6179 open contracts. Further, the market has strong weekly swings fluctuating from no trade to a high of 326 and a weekly average of 206 contracts. The market segment of single stock futures is significantly deeper than that of equity index futures. The qualitative study attributed the results to limited knowledge on derivatives amongst investors, unclear market policies, few derivatives products, and skepticism associated with developing financial markets. The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) is advised to intensify investor education, introduce market makers, add new derivatives products, and transform the Nairobi Securities Exchange Clearing House into a full Central Counterparty (CCP) structure to accelerate market depth. This will create a pathway to market depth through efficiency and reduction of operational risks.