scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of Manufacturing Lines with Distribution by Process: A Markov Chain Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
pp. 3269
Author(s):  
Gilberto Pérez-Lechuga ◽  
Francisco Venegas-Martínez ◽  
José Francisco Martínez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Productive Efficiency ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Line Production ◽  
Final Destination ◽  
Markov Chain Theory ◽  
Average Production ◽  
Statistical Frequency ◽  
To Receive

Today, there are a wide variety of ways to produce goods in a manufacturing company. Among the most common are mass or line production and process production, both of which are antagonists. In an online production system, materials move from station to station, receiving added value on a well-defined layout. In a production line by process, the materials randomly visit a set of machines strategically located in order to receive a treatment, almost always through metalwork machines, according to the final product of which they will be part. In this case, there is not a predefined layout, as the incoming materials are sectioned and each piece forms a continuous flow through different workstations to receive some process. This activity depends on the function of the product and its final destination as a component of a finished product. In this proposal, Markov chain theory is used to model a manufacturing system by process in order to obtain the expected values of the average production per machine, the total expected production in all the facilities, the leisure per machine and the total productive efficiency of the system, among other indicators. In this research, we assume the existence of historical information about the use of the equipment, its failures, the causes of failure and their repair times; in any factory, this information is available in the area of manufacturing engineering and plant engineering. From this information, statistical frequency indicators are constructed to estimate transition probabilities, from which the results presented here are derived. The proposal is complemented with a numerical example of a real case obtained from a refrigerator factory established in Mexico in order to illustrate the results derived from this research. The results obtained show their feasibility when successfully implemented in the company.

Finite non-homogeneous Markov chains: Asymptotic behaviour

1976 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Cohn
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Asymptotic Behaviour ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Homogeneous Markov Chain ◽  
Stochastic Matrices ◽  
Weak Ergodicity ◽  
General Picture ◽  
Markov Chain Theory ◽  
Chain Theory ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

The paper is concerned with aspects of the behaviour of the products of finite stochastic matrices, the methods used in the proofs being of a probabilistic nature. The main result of the paper (Theorem 1) presents a general picture of the asymptotic behaviour of the transition probabilities between various groups of states. A unified treatment of some results of non-homogeneous Markov chain theory pertaining to weak ergodicity is then given.

Finite non-homogeneous Markov chains: Asymptotic behaviour

1976 ◽  
Vol 8 (03) ◽  
pp. 502-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Cohn
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Asymptotic Behaviour ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Homogeneous Markov Chain ◽  
Stochastic Matrices ◽  
Weak Ergodicity ◽  
General Picture ◽  
Markov Chain Theory ◽  
Chain Theory ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

The paper is concerned with aspects of the behaviour of the products of finite stochastic matrices, the methods used in the proofs being of a probabilistic nature. The main result of the paper (Theorem 1) presents a general picture of the asymptotic behaviour of the transition probabilities between various groups of states. A unified treatment of some results of non-homogeneous Markov chain theory pertaining to weak ergodicity is then given.

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

scholarly journals Calibration of Transition Intensities for a Multistate Model: Application to Long-Term Care

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Manuel L. Esquível ◽  
Gracinda R. Guerreiro ◽  
Matilde C. Oliveira ◽  
Pedro Corte Real
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Chain Process ◽  
Term Care ◽  
National Network

We consider a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chain model for Long-Term Care with five states: the autonomous state, three dependent states of light, moderate and severe dependence levels and the death state. For a general approach, we allow for non null intensities for all the returns from higher dependence levels to all lesser dependencies in the multi-state model. Using data from the 2015 Portuguese National Network of Continuous Care database, as the main research contribution of this paper, we propose a method to calibrate transition intensities with the one step transition probabilities estimated from data. This allows us to use non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chains for modeling Long-Term Care. We solve numerically the Kolmogorov forward differential equations in order to obtain continuous time transition probabilities. We assess the quality of the calibration using the Portuguese life expectancies. Based on reasonable monthly costs for each dependence state we compute, by Monte Carlo simulation, trajectories of the Markov chain process and derive relevant information for model validation and premium calculation.

scholarly journals A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

2004 ◽  
Vol 2004 (8) ◽  
pp. 421-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Souad Assoudou ◽  
Belkheir Essebbar
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Bayesian Estimator ◽  
Jeffreys Prior ◽  
Data Set

This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

scholarly journals Infinitely divisible random transition probabilities with application to dependent Markov chains

1984 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-472
Author(s):  
Peter L. Chesson
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
White Noise ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Rates ◽  
Infinitely Divisible ◽  
Random Transition ◽  
Transition Probability Matrices ◽  
Probability Matrices

AbstractRandom transition probability matrices with stationary independent factors define “white noise” environment processes for Markov chains. Two examples are considered in detail. Such environment processes can be used to construct several Markov chains which are dependent, have the same transition probabilities and are jointly a Markov chain. Transition rates for such processes are evaluated. These results have application to the study of animal movements.

scholarly journals Comparing an Approximate Queuing Approach with Simulation for the Solution of a Cross-Docking Problem

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Briesemeister ◽  
Antônio G. N. Novaes
Keyword(s):  
Queue Length ◽  
Computational Analysis ◽  
Queuing Model ◽  
Simulated Model ◽  
Final Destination ◽  
Cross Docking ◽  
Efficiency Performance ◽  
Management Concept ◽  
Intermediate Facilities ◽  
To Receive

Cross-docking is a logistics management concept in which products are temporarily unloaded at intermediate facilities and loaded onto output trucks to be sent to their final destination. In this paper, we propose an approximate nonstationary queuing model to size the number of docks to receive the trucks, so that their unloading will be as short as possible at the receiving dock, thus making the cross-docking process more efficient. It is observed that the stochastic queuing process may not reach the steady equilibrium state. A type of modeling that does not depend on the stationary characteristics of the process developed is applied. In order to measure the efficiency, performance, and possible adjustments of the parameters of the algorithm, an alternative simulation model is proposed using the Arena® software. The simulation uses analytic tools to make the problem more detailed, which is not allowed in the theoretical model. The computational analysis compares the results of the simulated model with the ones obtained with the theoretical algorithm, considering the queue length and the average waiting time of the trucks. Based on the results obtained, the simulation represented very well the proposed problem and possible changes can be easily detected with small adjustments in the simulated model.

scholarly journals On a non-homogeneous difference equation from probability theory

2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Luc Guilbault ◽  
Mario Lefebvre
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Difference Equation ◽  
Mathematical Expectation ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Current State ◽  
Constant Coefficients ◽  
Gambler’S Ruin ◽  
Gambler's Ruin Problem ◽  
Ruin Problem

Abstract The so-called gambler’s ruin problem in probability theory is considered for a Markov chain having transition probabilities depending on the current state. This problem leads to a non-homogeneous difference equation with non-constant coefficients for the expected duration of the game. This mathematical expectation is computed explicitly.

Perturbation theory and finite Markov chains

1968 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 401-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Schweitzer
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Theory ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Fundamental Matrix ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Semi Group ◽  
Partial Derivatives ◽  
Finite Markov Chains ◽  
Derivatives Of

A perturbation formalism is presented which shows how the stationary distribution and fundamental matrix of a Markov chain containing a single irreducible set of states change as the transition probabilities vary. Expressions are given for the partial derivatives of the stationary distribution and fundamental matrix with respect to the transition probabilities. Semi-group properties of the generators of transformations from one Markov chain to another are investigated. It is shown that a perturbation formalism exists in the multiple subchain case if and only if the change in the transition probabilities does not alter the number of, or intermix the various subchains. The formalism is presented when this condition is satisfied.

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