scholarly journals Maximum Market Price of Longevity Risk under Solvency Regimes: The Case of Solvency II

Risks ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanna Levantesi ◽  
Massimiliano Menzietti
Author(s):  
Susanna Levantesi ◽  
Massimiliano Menzietti

Longevity risk constitutes an important risk factor for life insurance companies and it can be managed through longevity-linked securities. The market of longevity-linked securities is at present far from being complete and does not allow to find a unique pricing measure. We propose a method to estimate the maximum market price of longevity risk depending on the risk margin implicit within the calculation of the technical provisions as defined by Solvency II. The maximum price of longevity risk is determined for a survivor forward (S-forward), an agreement between two counterparties to exchange at maturity a fixed survival-dependent payment for a payment depending on the realized survival of a given cohort of individuals. The maximum prices determined for the S-forwards can be used to price other longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model is used to represent the evolution of mortality over time, that combined with the information on the risk margin, enables us to calculate upper limits for the risk-adjusted survival probabilities, the market price of longevity risk and the S-forward prices. Numerical results can be extended for the pricing of other longevity-linked securities.


2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Börger ◽  
Daniel Fleischer ◽  
Nikita Kuksin

AbstractStochastic modeling of mortality/longevity risks is necessary for internal models of (re)insurers under the new solvency regimes, such as Solvency II and the Swiss Solvency Test. In this paper, we propose a mortality model which fulfills all requirements imposed by these regimes. We show how the model can be calibrated and applied to the simultaneous modeling of both mortality and longevity risk for several populations. The main contribution of this paper is a stochastic trend component which explicitly models changes in the long-term mortality trend assumption over time. This allows to quantify mortality and longevity risk over the one-year time horizon prescribed by the solvency regimes without relying on nested simulations. We illustrate the practical ability of our model by calculating solvency capital requirements for some example portfolios, and we compare these capital requirements with those from the Solvency II standard formula.


Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Pauline Milaure Ngugnie Diffouo ◽  
Pierre Devolder

This paper captures and measures the longevity risk generated by an annuity product. The longevity risk is materialized by the uncertain level of the future liability compared to the initially foretasted or expected value. Herein we compute the solvency capital (SC) of an insurer selling such a product within a single risk setting for three different life annuity products. Within the Solvency II framework, we capture the mortality of policyholders by the mean of the Hull–White model. Using the numerical analysis, we identify the product that requires the most SC from an insurer and the most profitable product for a shareholder. For policyholders we identify the cheapest product by computing the premiums and the most profitable product by computing the benefit levels. We further study how sensitive the SC is with respect to some significant parameters.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-444
Author(s):  
Fabrice Balland ◽  
Alexandre Boumezoued ◽  
Laurent Devineau ◽  
Marine Habart ◽  
Tom Popa

AbstractIn this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database show particularly low and high mortality rates, respectively. To provide corrected tables for the three countries of interest here (France, Italy and West Germany), we use the approach developed by Boumezoued for countries for which the method applies (France and Italy) and provide an extension of the method for West Germany as monthly fertility histories are not sufficient to cover the generations of interest. These mortality tables are crucial inputs to stochastic mortality models forecasting future scenarios, from which the extreme 0.5% longevity improvement can be extracted, allowing for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement. More precisely, to assess the impact of such anomalies in the Solvency II framework, we use a simplified internal model based on three usual stochastic models to project mortality rates in the future combined with a closure table methodology for older ages. Correcting this bias obviously improves the data quality of the mortality inputs, which is of paramount importance today, and slightly decreases the capital requirement. Overall, the longevity risk assessment remains stable, as well as the selection of the stochastic mortality model. As a collateral gain of this data quality improvement, the more regular estimated parameters allow for new insights and a refined assessment regarding longevity risk.


2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
An Chen ◽  
Peter Hieber ◽  
Jakob K. Klein

AbstractFor insurance companies in Europe, the introduction of Solvency II leads to a tightening of rules for solvency capital provision. In life insurance, this especially affects retirement products that contain a significant portion of longevity risk (e.g., conventional annuities). Insurance companies might react by price increases for those products, and, at the same time, might think of alternatives that shift longevity risk (at least partially) to policyholders. In the extreme case, this leads to so-called tontine products where the insurance company’s role is merely administrative and longevity risk is shared within a pool of policyholders. From the policyholder’s viewpoint, such products are, however, not desirable as they lead to a high uncertainty of retirement income at old ages. In this article, we alternatively suggest a so-called tonuity that combines the appealing features of tontine and conventional annuity. Until some fixed age (the switching time), a tonuity’s payoff is tontine-like, afterwards the policyholder receives a secure payment of a (deferred) annuity. A tonuity is attractive for both the retiree (who benefits from a secure income at old ages) and the insurance company (whose capital requirements are reduced compared to conventional annuities). The tonuity is a possibility to offer tailor-made retirement products: using risk capital charges linked to Solvency II, we show that retirees with very low or very high risk aversion prefer a tontine or conventional annuity, respectively. Retirees with medium risk aversion, however, prefer a tonuity. In a utility-based framework, we therefore determine the optimal tonuity characterized by the critical switching time that maximizes the policyholder’s lifetime utility.


Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua Zeddouk ◽  
Pierre Devolder

Annuities providers become more and more exposed to longevity risk due to the increase in life expectancy. To hedge this risk, new longevity derivatives have been proposed (longevity bonds, q-forwards, S-swaps…). Although academic researchers, policy makers and practitioners have talked about it for years, longevity-linked securities are not widely traded in financial markets, due in particular to the pricing difficulty. In this paper, we compare different existing pricing methods and propose a Cost of Capital approach. Our method is designed to be more consistent with Solvency II requirement (longevity risk assessment is based on a one year time horizon). The price of longevity risk is determined for a S-forward and a S-swap but can be used to price other longevity-linked securities. We also compare this Cost of capital method with some classical pricing approaches. The Hull and White and CIR extended models are used to represent the evolution of mortality over time. We use data for Belgian population to derive prices for the proposed longevity linked securities based on the different methods.


2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149
Author(s):  
Sana Ben Salah ◽  
Lotfi Belkacem

<p>This paper deals with the longevity risk assessment within the Solvency II framework. We propose a methodology allowing obtaining longevity shocks specified by gender, age and maturity. These shocks, which are calibrated on experience mortality data relative to a French insurance company, are proved to be far away from that assumed in the standard formula and the resulting solvency capital requirement (SCR) leads to significant capital savings as compared to the standard approach.</p>


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