New Definition of Default—Recalibration of Credit Risk Models Using Bayesian Approach

After the financial crisis, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has established tighter standards around the definition of default (Capital Requirements Regulation CRR Article 178, EBA/GL/2017/16) to increase the degree of comparability and consistency in credit risk measurement and capital frameworks across banks and financial institutions. Requirements of the new definition of default (DoD) concern how banks recognize credit defaults for prudential purposes and include quantitative impact analysis and new rules of materiality. In this approach, the number and timing of defaults affect the validity of currently used risk models and processes. The recommendation presented in this paper is to address current gaps by considering a Bayesian approach for PD recalibration based on insights derived from both simulated and empirical data (e.g., a priori and a posteriori distributions). A Bayesian approach was used in two steps: to calculate the Long Run Average (LRA) on both simulated and empirical data and for the final model calibration to the posterior LRA. The Bayesian approach result for the PD LRA was slightly lower than the one calculated based on classical logistic regression. It also decreased for the historically observed LRA that included the most recent empirical data. The Bayesian methodology was used to make the LRA more objective, but it also helps to better align the LRA not only with the empirical data but also with the most recent ones.

Does Board Collective Suitability Affect Performance and Risk? Evidence from European Banks

This paper analyzes the features of the boards of large listed European banks and their degree of “collective suitability” as formalized by the Capital Requirements Directives (CRD4) and evaluates whether closer proximity to the collective suitability regulatory paradigm affects banks’ performance, risk and risk-adjusted performance. We leverage Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) to analyze board features and suitability (i.e. competence, diversity, independence and time commitment) jointly as a multifaceted, non-linear combination of all board variables, rather than evaluating the single variables individually as in the mainstream literature. Using a hand-collected dataset based on numerous features of boards of directors, we find that European banks’ boards can be classified in four different board archetypes characterized by different degrees of collective suitability. Our findings also suggest positive relationships between the degree of collective suitability and performance, risk-adjusted performance, and risk, confirming that the regulatory provisions on governance are going in the right direction, enhancing effective and prudent management.

The impact of natural disasters on the performance and solvency of US banks

PurposeThis paper explores the effect of natural disasters on the profitability and solvency of US banks.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a sample of 187 large-scale natural disasters that occurred in the United States between 2000 and 2014 and a sample of 2,891 banks, we examine whether and how disaster-related damages affect various measures of bank profitability and bank solvency. We differentiate between different types of banks (with local, regional and national operations) based on a breakdown of their state-level deposits and explore the reaction of these banks to damages weighted by the GDP of the states they operate in.FindingsWe find that natural disasters have a pronounced effect on the net-income-to-assets and the net-income-to-equity ratio of banks, as well as the banks' impaired loans and return on average assets. We also observe significant effects on the equity ratio and the tier-1 capital ratio (two solvency measures). Interestingly, the latter are positive for regional banks which appear to benefit from increased customer deposits related to safekeeping, government payments for post-disaster recovery, insurance payouts and decreased withdrawals, while they are significantly negative for banks that operate locally or nationally.Originality/valueWe contribute to the literature by offering various new insights regarding the effects natural disasters have on financial institutions. With climate change-driven natural disasters widely expected to increase both in terms of frequency and severity, their economic fallout is likely to impose an increasing burden on financial institutions. Large, nationally operating banks tend to be well diversified both geographically and in terms of their product offerings. Small, locally operating banks, however, are increasingly at risk – particularly if they operate in disaster-prone areas. Current banking regulations generally do not factor natural disaster risks into their capital requirements. To avoid the next big financial crisis, regulators may want to adjust their reserve requirements by taking this growing risk exposure into consideration.

The Risk-Taking Behaviour of Tunisian Banks in the Post-Revolution Era: A Panel ARDL-PMG Approach

This study investigates the long-term determinants of capital buffers and risk-taking adjustment by focusing on a sample of listed Tunisian commercial banks. This research uses hand-collected semi-annual data. The panel autoregressive distributed lags technique is used to control for unit root processes and to check for long-term determinants of capital and risk-taking adjustment. The empirical findings prove the existence of a moral hazard and procyclical behaviour of Tunisian banks in response to capital requirements. However, some results indicate that capital standards are still an important prudential tool for ensuring the robustness of Tunisian banks. There have been no previous studies focusing on this issue in the context of the Tunisian banking system in the turbulent post-revolution era. This paper innovates by assuming that a set of bank-specific, macroeconomic and regulatory variables exert a long-term rather than a short-term influence on capital buffers and risk-taking. The research does not consider a possible long-term simultaneous relationship between capital and risk-taking. The sample could be extended if data were available. Tunisian banks are advised to diversify their sources of revenues and to thoroughly revise their business models in order to become less dependent on revenues from traditional intermediation activities and to reduce the procyclicality of the banking system.

Capital Regulation and Market Competition in the MENA Region: Policy Implications for Banking Sector Stability During COVID-19 Pandemic

This article investigates the impact of capital requirements and market competition on the stability of financial institutions in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. We test the hypothesis that capital requirements significantly affect the risk behaviour of both Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region. We also investigate the moderating effect of market power and concentration on the relationship between capital regulation and bank risk. We find that capital ratio has a strong positive impact on conventional banks’ credit risk, whereas this effect is insignificant in the sample of Islamic banks. Our analysis indicates that, for the conventional banking sector, the increase in the capitalization level is negatively linked to bank credit risk only when banks’ level of market power is high. Regarding the Islamic banks’ behaviour, we find that the relationship between capital and credit risk is weakly moderated by banking competition. This means that Islamic banks are less sensitive to the market’s competitive conditions in the MENA countries, as they still apply their theoretical models, based on prohibition of interest. Our findings inform regulatory authorities concerned with improving the banking sector’s financial stability in the MENA region to strengthen their policies and force banks to better align with regulatory capital requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Regulation, banking competition and risk-taking behavior in the MENA region: policy implications for Islamic banks

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of regulation and market competition on the risk-taking Behaviour of financial institutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Design/methodology/approach The empirical framework is based on panel fixed effects/random effects specification. For robustness purpose, this study also uses the generalized method of moments estimation technique. This study tests the hypothesis that regulatory capital requirements have a significant effect on financial stability of Islamic and conventional banks (CBs) in the MENA region. This study also investigates the moderating effect of market power and concentration on the relationship between capital regulation and bank risk. Findings The estimation results support the view that capital adequacy ratio (CAR) has no significant impact on credit risk of Islamic banks (IBs), whereas market competition does play a significant role in shaping the risk behavior of these institutions. This study report opposite results for CBs – an increase in the minimum capital requirements is followed by an increase in a bank’s risk level, which has a negative impact on their financial stability. Furthermore, the results support the notion of a non-linear relationship between banking concentration and bank risk. The findings inform the regulatory authorities concerned with improving the financial stability of banking sector in the MENA region to set their policy differently depending on the level of concentration in the banking market. Research limitations/implications This study contributes to the literature on the effectiveness of regulatory reforms (in this case, capital requirements) and market competition for bank performance and risk-taking. In regard to IBs, capital requirements are less effective in requiring IBs to adjust their risk level according to the Basel III methodology. This study finds that IBs’ risk behavior is strongly associated with market competition, and therefore, the interest rates. Moreover, banks operating in markets with high banking concentration (but not necessarily, low competition), will decrease their credit risk level in response to an increase in the minimum capital requirements. As a result, these banks will be more stable compared to their conventional peers. Thus, regulators and policymakers in the MENA region should restrict the risk-taking behavior of IBs through stringent capital requirements and more intense banking supervision. Practical implications The practical implications of these findings are that the regulatory authorities concerned with improving banking sector stability in the MENA region should proceed differently, depending on the level of banking market concentration. The findings inform regulators and policymakers to set capital requirements at levels that would restrict banks from taking more risk to increase their returns. They are also important for bank managers who should avoid risky strategies in response to increased regulatory pressure (e.g. increase in the minimum required capital level of 8%), as they may lead to an increase in the level of non-performing loans, and therefore, a greater probability of bank default. A future extension of this study will focus on testing the effect of bank risk-taking and market competition on the capitalization levels of banks in the MENA countries. More specifically, this study will investigates if banks raise their capitalization levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. Originality/value The analysis of previous research indicates that there is no unambiguous answer to the question of whether IBs perform differently than CBs under different competitive conditions. To fill this gap, this study examines the influence of capital regulation and market competition (both individually and interactively) on bank risk-taking behavior using a large sample of banking institutions in 18 MENA countries over 14 years (2005–2018). For the first time in this line of research, this study shows that the level of market power is positively associated with the level of a bank’ insolvency risk. In others words, IBs operating in highly competitive markets are more inclined to take a higher risk than their conventional peers. Regarding the IBs credit risk behavior, this study finds that market power has a limited impact on the relationship between CAR and risk level. This means that IBs are still applying in their operations the theoretical models based on the prohibition of interest.

Liquidity risk and regulation in the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) banking industry

The recurring crises have evidenced poor liquidity risk management and ineffective regulation in banking. Consequently, banking regulations have undergone continuous reforms to bolster stability in the banking system. Nonetheless, theoretical and empirical evidence provide conflicting results that warrant comprehensive research, particularly for emerging Islamic banking. This study examines the role of banking regulation on the liquidity risk of 245 conventional banks and 68 Islamic banks from selected 14 Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) from 2000 to 2017 utilising the dynamic panel GMM (generalized method of moments) technique. We measure liquidity risk using the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and the total financing-to-total deposits and short-term funding (LDEP). Meanwhile, the regulatory measures are asset restriction (AR), private monitoring (PM), supervisory power (SP) and capital requirements (CR). The findings suggest that regulation has a limited impact on bank liquidity risk. The CR supports the value creation of regulation through the reduction in banks’ liquidity risks, while PM and SP are agency costs of regulation that lead to higher liquidity risks. The impact of CR is lower on liquidity risk in Islamic banking than conventional ones, probably due to limited Islamic liquidity risk management facilities. Thus, regulators should strengthen Islamic liquidity risk instruments and markets to facilitate Islamic banking growth.

Calculating capital requirements for operational risk

Operational risks have become increasingly important for banks, especially against the background of growing IT dependency and the increasing complexity of their activities. Further-more, the corona pandemic contributed to the increased risk potential. Therefore, banks have to back these risks with own funds. There are currently three measurement approaches for determining the capital requirements for operational risk. In recent years, and especially during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008, however, some of the weaknesses inherent in these approaches have become apparent. Thus, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision revised the current capital framework. Therefore, this article examines the various measurement approaches, addresses inherent weaknesses and moreover, presents the future measurement approach developed by the supervisory authorities.

Climate Risk with Particular Emphasis on the Relationship with Credit-Risk Assessment: What We Learn from Poland

This research seeks to identify non-financial enterprises exposed to the climate risk relating to transition risks and at the same time use of bank loans, as well as to conduct stress tests to take account of the financial risk related to climate change. The workflow through which to determine the ability of the banking sector to assess the potential impact of climate risk entails parts based around economic sector and company level. The procedure based on the sectoral level identifies vulnerable economic sectors (in the Sectoral Module), while the procedure based on company level (the Company Module) refers to scenarios presented in stress tests to estimate the probability of default under stressful conditions related to the introduction of a direct carbon tax. The introduction of the average direct carbon tax (EUR 75/tCO2) in fact results in increased expenditure and reduced sales revenues among enterprises from sectors with a high CO2 impact, with the result being a decrease in the profitability of enterprises, along with a simultaneously higher level of debt; an increase in the probability of default (PD) from 3.6%, at the end of 2020 in the baseline macroeconomic scenario, to between 6.31% and 10.12%; and increased commercial bank capital requirements. Financial institutions should thus use PD under stressful conditions relating to climate risk as suggestions to downgrade under the expert module.

Bank solvency: The role of credit and liquidity risks, regulatory capital and economic stability

Banking stability is essential to any economy due to its many functions, including intermediation, payment facilitation, and credit creation. Thus, the stability of the banking industry is one of the critical ingredients in economic growth. This paper analyzes how bank capital requirements, credit, and liquidity impact bank solvency using ten major banks that control 90% of the market share in the UK in 2009–2018. The GMM model indicates a strong association between credit and liquidity risks. That is, when banks finance a risky or distressed project, this will lead to an increase in non-performing loans (NPL), which reduces bank liquidity. Poor liquidity profile of the bank may restrict it from providing financial intermediation role. In addition, the findings indicate that efficiency, asset quality, and economic growth have a significant positive effect on the solvency of banks. The results also show that the regulatory capital (tier1) has a positive significant influence on solvency of the banks. Further, the results indicate that during the economic boom, banks tend to increase their regulatory capital. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that during the “good time”, banks can accumulate enough capital that is genuinely capable of absorbing negative shock. Also, it is important for banks to ensure that they are efficient but also have robust credit appraisal system to reduce NPL. This paper also demonstrates the implication of increased capital requirements. That is, increased capital requirements ensure not only banks are liquid but also solvent which enables them to provide financial intermediation.