Detecting Vegetation Change in the Pearl River Delta Region Based on Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend Analysis (TSS-RESTREND) and MODIS NDVI

Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND) can detect an abrupt change that was undetected by Residual Trend analysis (RESTREND), but it is usually combined with the Global Inventory for Mapping and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which cannot detect detailed vegetation changes in small areas. Hence, we used Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI (MOD-TR) to analyze the vegetation dynamic of the Pearl River Delta region (PRD) in this study. To choose the most suitable MODIS NDVI from MOD13Q1 (250 m), MOD13A1 (500 m), and MOD13A2 (1 km), whole and local comparison of results of the break year and MOD-TR were used. Meanwhile, a comparison of vegetation change at the city-scale was also implemented. Moreover, to reduce insignificant trend pixels in TSS-RESTREND, a combination method of TSS-RESTREND and RESTREND (CTSS-RESTREND) was proposed. We found that: (1) MOD13Q1 and MOD13A1 two NDVI were suitable for combination with TSS-RESTREND to detect vegetation change in PRD, but MOD13Q1 was a better choice when considering the accuracy of local detailed vegetation change; (2) CTSS-RESTREND could detect more pixels with a significant change (i.e., significant increase and significant decrease) than those of TSS-RESTREND and RESTREND. Also, its effectiveness could be verified by Landsat data; (3) at the city-scale, the CTSS-RESTREND detected that only vegetation decreases in Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, and Zhongshan were higher than vegetation increases, but, significant vegetation changes (i.e., decreases and increases) were mainly concentrated in Huizhou, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, and Guangzhou.