scholarly journals Analogy-Based Crop Yield Forecasts Based on Temporal Similarity of Leaf Area Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3069
Author(s):  
Yadong Liu ◽  
Junhwan Kim ◽  
David H. Fleisher ◽  
Kwang Soo Kim

Seasonal forecasts of crop yield are important components for agricultural policy decisions and farmer planning. A wide range of input data are often needed to forecast crop yield in a region where sophisticated approaches such as machine learning and process-based models are used. This requires considerable effort for data preparation in addition to identifying data sources. Here, we propose a simpler approach called the Analogy Based Crop-yield (ABC) forecast scheme to make timely and accurate prediction of regional crop yield using a minimum set of inputs. In the ABC method, a growing season from a prior long-term period, e.g., 10 years, is first identified as analogous to the current season by the use of a similarity index based on the time series leaf area index (LAI) patterns. Crop yield in the given growing season is then forecasted using the weighted yield average reported in the analogous seasons for the area of interest. The ABC approach was used to predict corn and soybean yields in the Midwestern U.S. at the county level for the period of 2017–2019. The MOD15A2H, which is a satellite data product for LAI, was used to compile inputs. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of crop yield forecasts was <10% for corn and soybean in each growing season when the time series of LAI from the day of year 89 to 209 was used as inputs to the ABC approach. The prediction error for the ABC approach was comparable to results from a deep neural network model that relied on soil and weather data as well as satellite data in a previous study. These results indicate that the ABC approach allowed for crop yield forecast with a lead-time of at least two months before harvest. In particular, the ABC scheme would be useful for regions where crop yield forecasts are limited by availability of reliable environmental data.

Author(s):  
Katarzyna Dabrowska-Zielinska ◽  
Maciej Bartold ◽  
Radoslaw Gurdak ◽  
Martyna Gatkowska ◽  
Wojciech Kiryla ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (9) ◽  
pp. 5301-5318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Xiao ◽  
Shunlin Liang ◽  
Jindi Wang ◽  
Yang Xiang ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 455-468
Author(s):  
Jakub Černý ◽  
Jan Krejza ◽  
Radek Pokorný ◽  
Pavel Bednář

Fast and precise leaf area index (LAI) estimation of a forest stand is frequently needed for a wide range of ecological studies. In the presented study, we compared side-by-side two instruments for performing LAI estimation (i.e. LaiPen LP 100 as a “newly developed device” and LAI-2200 PCA as the “world standard”), both based on indirect optical methods for performing LAI estimation in pure Norway spruce (Picea abies (Linnaeus) H. Karsten) stands under different thinning treatments. LAI values estimated by LaiPen LP 100 were approximate 5.8% lower compared to those measured by LAI-2200 PCA when averaging all collected data regardless of the thinning type. Nevertheless, when we considered the differences among LAI values at each measurement point within a regular grid, LaiPen LP 100 overestimated LAI values compared to those from LAI-2200 PCA on average by 1.4%. Therefore, both instruments are comparable. Similar LAI values between thinning from above (A) and thinning from below (B) approaches were indirectly detected by both instruments. The highest values of canopy production index and leaf area efficiency were observed within the stand thinned from above (plot A).


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaan Jin ◽  
Weixing Xu ◽  
Ainong Li ◽  
Xinyao Xie ◽  
Zhengjian Zhang ◽  
...  

As a key parameter that represents the structural characteristics and biophysical changes of crop canopy, the leaf area index (LAI) plays a significant role in monitoring crop growth and mapping yield. A considerable amount of farmland is dispersed with strong spatial heterogeneity. The existing time series satellite LAI products fail to capture spatial distributions and growth changes of crops due to coarse spatial resolutions and spatio-temporal discontinuities. Therefore, it becomes crucial for fine resolution LAI mapping in time series over crop areas. A two-stage data assimilation scheme was developed for dense time series LAI mapping in this study. A LAI dynamic model was first constructed using multi-year MODIS LAI data. This model coupled with the PROSAIL radiative transfer model, and MOD09A1 reflectance data were used to retrieve temporal LAI profiles at the 500 m resolution with the assistance of the very fast simulated annealing (VFSA) algorithm. Then, the LAI dynamics at the 500 m scale were incorporated as prior information into the Landsat 8 OLI reflectance data for time series LAI mapping at the 30 m resolution. Finally, the spatio-temporal continuities and retrieval accuracies of assimilated LAI values were assessed at the 500 m and 30 m resolutions respectively, using the MODIS LAI product, fine resolution LAI reference map and field measurements. The results indicated that the assimilated the LAI estimations at the 500 m scale effectively eliminated the spatio-temporal discontinuities of the MODIS LAI product and displayed reasonable temporal profiles and spatial integrity of LAI. Moreover, the 30 m resolution LAI retrievals showed more abundant spatial details and reasonable temporal profiles than the counterparts at the 500 m scale. The determination coefficient R2 between the estimated and field LAI values was 0.76 with a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.71 at the 30 m scale. The developed method not only improves the spatio-temporal continuities of the LAI at the 500 m scale, but also obtains 30 m resolution LAI maps with fine spatial and temporal consistencies, which can be expected to meet the needs of analysis on crop dynamic changes and yield mapping in fragmented and highly heterogeneous areas.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kozlova ◽  
I. Piestova ◽  
L. Patrusheva ◽  
M. Lubsky ◽  
A. Nikulina ◽  
...  

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