Epidemiology SIR with Regression, Arima, and Prophet in Forecasting Covid-19

Epidemiology maths resorts to Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-like models to describe contagion evolution curves for diseases such as Covid-19. Other time series estimation approaches can be used to fit and forecast curves. We use data from the Covid-19 pandemic infection curves of 20 countries to compare forecasting using SEIR (a variant of SIR), polynomial regression, ARIMA and Prophet. Polynomial regression deg2 (POLY d(2)) on differentiated curves had lowest 15 day forecast errors (6% average error over 20 countries), SEIR (errors 25–68%) and ARIMA (errors 15–85%) were better for spans larger than 30 days. We highlight the importance of SEIR for longer terms, and POLY d(2) in 15-days forecasting.

Fiscal deficit and trade deficit nexus in Pakistan: An econometric inquiry

This study is an attempt to explore the short-term and long-term effects of the fiscal deficit along with other macroeconomic variables on the deteriorating trade deficit of Pakistan from 1980 to 2018 by using time series estimation techniques. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and error correction term revealed the existence of cointegration among variables of interest. The estimated long-run and short-run results of the ARDL approach showed a significant positive effect of fiscal deficit on Pakistan's trade deficit in the short-run, whereas a significant adverse effect is observed in the long-run. The findings validated the twin deficit hypothesis in the short-run, whereas twin divergence proposition is observed in the long run. The study suggests prudent fiscal and monetary policies to make macroeconomic conditions favorable for the development and competitiveness of domestic production sectors engaged in the international trade.

Re-Examining the Impact of Financial System on Economic Growth

Recent developments in panel data econometrics allow researchers to estimate heterogeneous parameters. Given this novelty, the goal of this paper is to revisit the financial development-economic growth nexus for a panel of 76 developing counties using recent heterogeneous panel time series estimation methods. Findings indicate that results are very volatile across different empirical specifications. Overall, results provide a strong support of a negative impact that banking development on growth. At regional level, however, there is relatively little evidence of such relationship. On the side of the stock market, there is no much indication in favor of stock market-led growth hypothesis either at pooled panel or at regional level.

The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment*

Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.