scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Wang ◽  
Ge ◽  
Wei ◽  
Li

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.

2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 02047
Author(s):  
Zhen Tian ◽  
Jinhua Fan ◽  
Qianqian Chen ◽  
Huaichen Hu ◽  
Yanyang Shen

There are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-varying probability of traffic accidents during expressway maintenance at night. Combined with Leaky Noisy-or gate extended model, the calculation method of conditional probability is determined . By setting evidences for DBN reasoning, the time series change curve of the probability of traffic accidents and other risk factors are obtained. The results show that DBN can be applied to risk assessment of ENMC.


Author(s):  
Mariia Voronenko ◽  
Dmytro Nikytenko ◽  
Jan Krejci ◽  
Nataliia Krugla ◽  
Oleksandr Naumov ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 038702
Author(s):  
Guo Miao-Miao ◽  
Wang Yu-Jing ◽  
Xu Gui-Zhi ◽  
Griffin Milsap ◽  
Nitish V. Thakor ◽  
...  

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