Combining Static and Dynamic Recidivism Risk Information Into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System: A New Zealand Example

Communicating recidivism risk is individualized to each assessment. Labels (e.g., high, low) have no standardized meaning. In 2017, the Council of State Governments Justice Center (CSGJC) proposed a framework for standardized communication, but balancing the framework’s underlying principles of effective risk communication (and merging static and dynamic information) adds complexity. In this study, we incorporated dynamic risk scores that case managers rated among a routine sample of adults on parole in New Zealand ( N = 440) with static risk scores into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System. Compared with static risk only, merging tools (a) enhanced concordance with the recidivism rates proposed by CSGJC for average and lower-risk individuals, (b) diminished concordance for higher-risk individuals, yet (c) improved conceptual alignment with the criminogenic needs domain of the system. This example highlights the importance of attending to the underlying principles of effective risk communication that motivated the development of the system.

Static Risk-Based Group Testing Schemes Under Imperfectly Observable Risk

Testing multiple subjects within a group, with a single test applied to the group (i.e., group testing), is an important tool for classifying populations as positive or negative for a specific binary characteristic in an efficient manner. We study the design of easily implementable, static group testing schemes that take into account operational constraints, heterogeneous populations, and uncertainty in subject risk, while considering classification accuracy- and robustness-based objectives. We derive key structural properties of optimal risk-based designs and show that the problem can be formulated as network flow problems. Our reformulation involves computationally expensive high-dimensional integrals. We develop an analytical expression that eliminates the need to compute high-dimensional integrals, drastically improving the tractability of constructing the underlying network. We demonstrate the impact through a case study on chlamydia screening, which leads to the following insights: (1) Risk-based designs are shown to be less expensive, more accurate, and more robust than current practices. (2) The performance of static risk-based schemes comprised of only two group sizes is comparable to those comprised of many group sizes. (3) Static risk-based schemes are an effective alternative to more complicated dynamic schemes. (4) An expectation-based formulation captures almost all benefits of a static risk-based scheme.

Convergent and Predictive Associations of Three Measures of Pedophilic Interest

Pedophilic interest is a central risk factor for sexual offending against children. Multiple measures exist to assess pedophilic interest, and the present study aims to provide validity evidence for three of these measures in a sample of men convicted of sexual offenses. The association between a phallometric test for pedophilic interest, the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interest (SSPI), and the sexual deviance factor of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense (VRS-SO) version was examined in a sample of 261 men who participated in sexual violence reduction services. The association between these measures and sexual recidivism, both as sole predictors and while controlling for static risk, was also assessed. The second aim of the study was to examine the validity of different methods for modeling the distribution of pedophilic interests, using phallometric test scores, based on the findings in recent taxometric research. The measures generally showed a positive and moderate relationship with each other and predicted sexual recidivism. However, the SSPI did not significantly predict sexual recidivism, and when controlling for static risk, only the VRS-SO Sexual Deviance factor significantly predicted this outcome. Modeling phallometric test scores continuously and trichotomously produced significant associations with sexual recidivism; however, only a trichotomous model with two levels remained predictive after controlling for static risk. The results are broadly supportive of measures of pedophilic interest and underscore the importance of appropriately modeling the latent structure of pedophilic interest.

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.

Static Risk Mapping of Forest Fires in the Case of the Province of Chefchaouen (Morocco)

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Forest fire is responsible for a lot of problems as it destroys the landscape. Such spaces are valuable and take very long to recover. Hence, the risk of forest fire consists primarily of both the risk of an outbreak and of propagation which depend, in addition to the weather, to a number of environmental factors including: the type of vegetation (structure and composition), its state of desiccation as well as the slope and exposure to prevailing winds. Therefore, the goal is to develop static hazard maps of a 100&amp;thinsp;m resolution related to the province of Chefchaouen where the focus is on three maps; Surface threatened; Annual pressure of fire; Probability map. The production of these maps is based on various data including statistics on the fire, meteorological references, and flammability. In addition, several data were generated, namely, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, the slope in percent, aspect, etc. The production of these maps will make it possible to orient and optimize the means of investment, in particular with regard to infrastructures, equipment and forest fire management operations.</p>