scholarly journals Socio-Hydrological Modelling: The Influence of Reservoir Management and Societal Responses on Flood Impacts

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cinzia Albertini ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Vincenzo Totaro ◽  
Vito Iacobellis ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Over the last few years, several socio-hydrological studies have investigated the risk dynamics generated by the complex interactions between floods and societies, with a focus on either changing reservoir operation rules or raising levees. In this study, we propose a new socio-hydrological model of human–flood interactions that represents both changes in the reservoir management strategies and updating of the levee system. Our model is applied to simulate three prototypes of floodplain management strategies to cope with flood risk: green systems, in which societies resettle outside the flood-prone area; technological systems, in which societies implement structural measures, such as levees; and green-to-techno systems, in which societies shift from green to technological approaches. Floodplain dynamics are explored simulating possible future scenarios in the city of Brisbane, Australia. Results show that flood risk is strongly influenced by changes in flood and drought memory of reservoir operators, while risk-awareness levels shape the urbanisation of floodplains. Furthermore, scenarios of more frequent and higher magnitude events prove to enhance social flood memory in green systems, while technological systems experience much higher losses. Interestingly, green-to-techno systems may also evolve toward green floodplain management systems in response to large losses and technical/economical unfeasibility of larger structural measures.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cinzia Albertini ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Vincenzo Totaro ◽  
Vito Iacobellis ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre

<p>Over the last few years, several socio-hydrological studies have investigated the dynamics of risk generated by feedback mechanisms and interactions between floods and societies, with a focus on either changing reservoir operation rules or raising levees. In this study, we propose a new socio-hydrological model of human-flood interactions that represents both changes in the operating rules of reservoirs and updating of the levee system. Our model is applied to simulate three prototypes of floodplain management strategies: green systems, in which societies cope with flood risk by resettling outside the flood-prone area; technological systems, in which societies cope with flood risk also via structural measures, such as levees; and green-to-techno systems, in which societies shift from green to technological approaches. Floodplain dynamics are explored simulating future scenarios in the city of Brisbane, Australia. Results show that flood risk is strongly influenced by the flood memory of reservoir operators and their risk-awareness levels control the development of communities. Furthermore, scenarios of more frequent and higher magnitude events prove to enhance social preparedness levels in green systems, while technological systems experience much higher losses.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julieta Alvarez ◽  
Oswaldo Espinola ◽  
Luis Rodrigo Diaz ◽  
Lilith Cruces

Abstract Increase recovery from mature oil reservoirs requires the definition of enhanced reservoir management strategies, involving the implementation of advanced methodologies and technologies in the field's operation. This paper presents a digital workflow enabling the integration of commonly isolated elements such as: gauges, flowmeters, inflow control devices; analysis methods and data, used to improve scientific understanding of subsurface flow dynamics and determine improved operational decisions that support field's reservoir management strategy. It also supports evaluation of reservoir extent, hydraulic communication, artificial lift impact in the near-wellbore zone and reservoir response to injected fluids and coning phenomenon. This latest is used as an example to demonstrate the applicability of this workflow to improve and support operational decisions, minimizing water and gas production due to coning, that usually results in increasing production operation costs and it has a direct impact decreasing reservoir energy in mature saturated oil reservoirs. This innovative workflow consists on the continuous interpretation of data from downhole gauges, referred in this paper as data-driven; as well as analytical and numerical simulation methodologies using real-time raw data as an input, referred in this paper as model-driven, not commonly used to analyze near wellbore subsurface phenomena like coning and its impact in surface operation. The resulting analyses are displayed through an extensive visualization tool that provides instant insight to reservoir characterization and productivity groups, improving well and reservoir performance prediction capabilities for complex reservoirs such as mature saturated reservoirs with an associated aquifer, where undesired water and gas production is a continuous challenge that incorporates unexpected operational expenses.


Author(s):  
P. Matczak ◽  
J. Lewandowski ◽  
A. Choryński ◽  
M. Szwed ◽  
Z. W. Kundzewicz

Abstract. The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements) project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency) of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.


Author(s):  
J. Ernst ◽  
B.J. Dewals ◽  
S. Detrembleur ◽  
P. Archambeau ◽  
S. Erpicum ◽  
...  

The present chapter describes an end-to-end methodology for assessing flood protection strategies, including the whole methodological process from hydrological statistics to detailed 2D hydraulic modelling, damage calculation and flood risk evaluation. This risk-based approach serves as a component of a decision-support system (DSS) developed in Belgium for identifying cost-effective flood management strategies in the context of climate change. The DSS accounts for both hydraulic and socio-economic parameters to quantify the benefits (in terms of avoided risk) and the cost of each strategy. Besides reviewing fundamentals of flood risk assessment, including the inundation model and main concepts related to flood risk, a consistent methodology for micro-scale flood risk analysis is presented in detail, combining complementary sources of GIS information such as high resolution and high accuracy land use database as well as socio-economic datasets. Finally a case study on a main tributary of river Meuse in Belgium is described.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cabrera ◽  
Lee

Flooding is one of the major destructive natural disasters in Davao Oriental, Philippines, and results primarily from a high incidence of typhoons and heavy rainfalls. The main objective of this study was to identify flood-prone risk areas by mapping them based on the integration of multiple indicators, including rainfall, slope, elevation, drainage density, soil type, distance to the main channel and population density. For this purpose, a GIS-based flood risk spatial assessment was conducted by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weights by rank (WR) and ratio weighting (RW) frameworks to determine the relative importance of each indicator against another in the province of Davao Oriental. The resulting flood-prone areas by the three methods are validated by comparing with the estimated flood map based on ground truthing points from a field survey. The comparison results show that AHP is the most appropriate method among them to assess flood hazard. The result of the AHP flood risk map shows that 95.99% (5451.27 km2) of Davao Oriental is under low and moderate flood risk. The high and very high flood risk area covers approximately 3.39% (192.52 km2) of the province, primarily in the coastal areas. Thirty-one out of the one hundred eighty-three (31/183) barangays (towns) are at a high to very high risk of flooding at current climate, calling for the immediate attention of decision-makers to develop mitigation strategies for the future occurrence of flooding in Davao Oriental.


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