Modeling Climate and Management Change Impacts on Water Quality and In-Stream Processes in the Elbe River Basin

Reliable modelling of climate–water interactions at the river basin and regional scale requires development of advanced modelling approaches at scales relevant for assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. These approaches should represent the atmospheric, surface and subsurface hydrological processes and take into account their characteristic temporal and spatial scales of occurrence. The paper presents a climate change impact assessment performed for the Elbe River basin in Germany (about 100 000 km2). The method used for the study combines: (a) a statistical downscaling method driven by GCM-predicted temperature trend for producing climate scenarios, and (b) a simulation technique based on an ecohydrological semi-distributed river basin model, which was thoroughly validated in advance. The overall result of the climate impact study for the basin is that the mean water discharge and the mean groundwater recharge in the Elbe basin will be most likely decreased under the expected climate change and diffuse source pollution will be diminished. Our study confirms that the uncertainty in hydrological and water quality responses to changing climate is generally higher than the uncertainty in climate input. The method is transferable to other basins in the temperate zone.

Download Full-text

Geostatistical classification of dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe river basin

Geografie ◽

10.37040/geografie2005110010015 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 110 (1) ◽

pp. 15-31

Author(s):

Jakub Langhammer

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

River System ◽

Quality Changes ◽

Elbe River ◽

Critical Areas ◽

Emission Volume ◽

Elbe River Basin ◽

The Elbe River ◽

And Control

With regard to the water quality changes, the area of the Czech part of the Elbe river basin is extraordinarily dynamic. In the 20th century it experienced an enormous increase of load of pollution. Since the beginning of the 1990's due to the political and economical changes, we have witnessed a particularly intensive decrease in the emission volume and a related increase in water quality of watercourses. However, positive changes in the pollution load balance have occurred mainly in the biggest watercourses and these changes have not been accompanied by similar development in the whole river system. Using a newly created classification methodology the basic models of dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe river basin have been derived. Based on GIS geostatistical analysis, regions with analogous water quality development trends have been defined for selected parameters and critical areas have been identified. It has become apparent that the prevailing part of the Elbe river basin has been experiencing a gradual increase in pollution. In addition, after a previous decrease, a number of watercourses experienced a recurrence of the increase in load. These areas are priorities for further development and control of surface water protection against pollution.

Download Full-text

Water Quality changes in the Elbe River Basin

Geografie ◽

10.37040/geografie2004109020093 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 109 (2) ◽

pp. 93-104

Author(s):

Jakub Langhammer

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

Pollution Level ◽

Quality Changes ◽

Pollution Load ◽

Elbe River ◽

Permanent Improvement ◽

Elbe River Basin ◽

The Elbe River

In the course of the 90s, the Czech part of the Elbe river basin underwent a significant change in the quality of surface water. After a long period of intensified pollution hitting the peak at the end of the 80s, reduced amount of emissions from main industrial and municipal sources led to a lower pollution load of the Elbe and its principal tributaries. The scope and speed of such water quality changes is unprecedented in the Czech as well as in the European perspective. Decrease in the pollution level is however spatially limited to the Elbe river and its main tributaries. Further reduction of emission load will not result in corresponding decline of water pollution. This is due to different evolution of rivers of different sizes, but mainly to insufficient decrease of pollution load in the he ad stream areas of the river basin. It is this area of small watercourses that has to be in the centre of attention because without its radical changes it isn't possible to ensure permanent improvement of water quality in the Elbe and its tributaries.

Download Full-text