scholarly journals Fast Sequential Clustering in Riemannian Manifolds for Dynamic and Time-Series-Annotated Multilayer Networks

Author(s):  
Cong Ye ◽  
Konstantinos Slavakis ◽  
Johan Nakuci ◽  
Sarah F. Muldoon ◽  
John Medaglia

This work exploits Riemannian manifolds to build a sequential-clustering framework able to address a wide variety of clustering tasks in dynamic multilayer (brain) networks via the information extracted from their nodal time-series. The discussion follows a bottom-up path, starting from feature extraction from time-series and reaching up to Riemannian manifolds (feature spaces) to address clustering tasks such as state clustering, community detection (a.k.a. network-topology identification), and subnetwork-sequence tracking. Kernel autoregressive-moving-average modeling and kernel (partial) correlations serve as case studies of generating features in the Riemannian manifolds of Grassmann and positive-(semi)definite matrices, respectively. Feature point-clouds form clusters which are viewed as submanifolds according to Riemannian multi-manifold modeling. A novel sequential-clustering scheme of Riemannian features is also established: feature points are first sampled in a non-random way to reveal the underlying geometric information, and, then, a fast sequential-clustering scheme is brought forth that takes advantage of Riemannian distances and the angular information on tangent spaces. By virtue of the landmark points and the sequential processing of the Riemannian features, the computational complexity of the framework is rendered free from the length of the available time-series data. The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed framework is validated by extensive numerical tests against several state-of-the-art manifold-learning and brain-network-clustering schemes on synthetic as well as real functional-magnetic-resonance-imaging (fMRI) and electro-encephalogram<br> (EEG) data.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Ye ◽  
Konstantinos Slavakis ◽  
Johan Nakuci ◽  
Sarah F. Muldoon ◽  
John Medaglia

This work exploits Riemannian manifolds to build a sequential-clustering framework able to address a wide variety of clustering tasks in dynamic multilayer (brain) networks via the information extracted from their nodal time-series. The discussion follows a bottom-up path, starting from feature extraction from time-series and reaching up to Riemannian manifolds (feature spaces) to address clustering tasks such as state clustering, community detection (a.k.a. network-topology identification), and subnetwork-sequence tracking. Kernel autoregressive-moving-average modeling and kernel (partial) correlations serve as case studies of generating features in the Riemannian manifolds of Grassmann and positive-(semi)definite matrices, respectively. Feature point-clouds form clusters which are viewed as submanifolds according to Riemannian multi-manifold modeling. A novel sequential-clustering scheme of Riemannian features is also established: feature points are first sampled in a non-random way to reveal the underlying geometric information, and, then, a fast sequential-clustering scheme is brought forth that takes advantage of Riemannian distances and the angular information on tangent spaces. By virtue of the landmark points and the sequential processing of the Riemannian features, the computational complexity of the framework is rendered free from the length of the available time-series data. The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed framework is validated by extensive numerical tests against several state-of-the-art manifold-learning and brain-network-clustering schemes on synthetic as well as real functional-magnetic-resonance-imaging (fMRI) and electro-encephalogram<br> (EEG) data.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3561
Author(s):  
Diego Duarte ◽  
Chris Walshaw ◽  
Nadarajah Ramesh

Across the world, healthcare systems are under stress and this has been hugely exacerbated by the COVID pandemic. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), usually in the form of time-series data, are used to help manage that stress. Making reliable predictions of these indicators, particularly for emergency departments (ED), can facilitate acute unit planning, enhance quality of care and optimise resources. This motivates models that can forecast relevant KPIs and this paper addresses that need by comparing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, a purely statistical model, to Prophet, a decomposable forecasting model based on trend, seasonality and holidays variables, and to the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), a machine learning model. The dataset analysed is formed of four hourly valued indicators from a UK hospital: Patients in Department; Number of Attendances; Unallocated Patients with a DTA (Decision to Admit); Medically Fit for Discharge. Typically, the data exhibit regular patterns and seasonal trends and can be impacted by external factors such as the weather or major incidents. The COVID pandemic is an extreme instance of the latter and the behaviour of sample data changed dramatically. The capacity to quickly adapt to these changes is crucial and is a factor that shows better results for GRNN in both accuracy and reliability.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
J. HAZARIKA ◽  
B. PATHAK ◽  
A. N. PATOWARY

Perceptive the rainfall pattern is tough for the solution of several regional environmental issues of water resources management, with implications for agriculture, climate change, and natural calamity such as floods and droughts. Statistical computing, modeling and forecasting data are key instruments for studying these patterns. The study of time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in hydrology and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, an attempt has been made to use Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for monthly rainfall data taken from Dibrugarh for the period of 1980- 2014 with a total of 420 points.  We investigated and found that ARIMA (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model is suitable for the given data set. As such this model can be used to forecast the pattern of monthly rainfall for the upcoming years, which can help the decision makers to establish priorities in terms of agricultural, flood, water demand management etc.  


2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1850109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emrah Oral ◽  
Gazanfer Unal

This leading primary study is about modeling multifractal wavelet scale time series data using multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and forecasting with vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (VARFIMA) model. The data is acquired from Yahoo Finances!, which is composed of 1671 daily stock market of eastern (NIKKEI, TAIEX, KOPSI) and western (SP500, FTSE, DAX) markets. Once the co-movement dependencies on time-frequency space are determined with MWC, the coherent data is extracted out of raw data at a certain scale by using CWT. The multifractal behavior of the extracted series is verified by MFDFA and its local Hurst exponents have been calculated obtaining root mean square of residuals at each scale. This inter-calculated fluctuation function time series has been re-scaled and used to estimate the process with VARFIMA model and forecasted accordingly. The results have shown that the direction of price change is determined without difficulty and the efficiency of forecasting has been substantially increased using highly correlated multifractal wavelet scale time series data.


2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 863-868
Author(s):  
Rong Yu ◽  
Bo Feng Cai ◽  
Xiang Qin Su ◽  
Ya Zi He ◽  
Jing Yang

Vegetation index time series data modeling is widely used in many research areas, such as analysis of environmental change, estimation of crop yield, and the precision of the traditional vegetation index time series data fitting model is lower. This paper conducts the modeling with introducing the autoregressive moving average time series model, and using NOAA/AVHRR normalized differential vegetation index time series data, to estimate the errors of original data which are between under the situation that the parameters to be estimated are lesser, and on the basis gives the fitted equation to the six kinds of main land covers’ vegetation index time series data of Northeast China region.


2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 200-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carissa Sparkes ◽  
Leonard M. Lye ◽  
Susan Richter

Time series data such as monthly stream flows can be modelled using time series methods and then used to simulate or forecast flows for short term planning. Two methods of time series modelling were reviewed and compared: the well-known auto regressive moving average (ARMA) method and the state-space time-series (SSTS) method. ARMA has been used in hydrology to model and simulate flows with good results and is widely accepted for this purpose. SSTS modelling is a more recently developed method that is relatively unused for hydrologic modelling. This paper focuses on modelling the stream flows from basins of different sizes using these two time series modelling methods and comparing the results. Three rivers in Labrador and South-East Quebec were modelled: the Romaine, Ugjoktok and Alexis Rivers. Both models were compared for accuracy of prediction, ease of software use and simplicity of model to determine the preferred time series methodology approach for modelling these rivers. The SSTS was considered very easy to use but model diagnostics were found to require a high level of statistical understanding. Ultimately, the ARMA method was determined to be the better method for the typical engineer to use, considering the diagnostics were simple and the monthly flows could be easily simulated to verify results.


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