Can Conservative Arab Gulf Monarchies Endure a Fourth War in the Persian Gulf?

The existing regional balance of power in the Persian Gulf is likely to shift after Iran becomes a nuclear state. Conservative Arab Gulf monarchies, which emerged relatively unscathed from previous tectonic changes, are poised to mimic the Iranian program with far-reaching consequences for all concerned. Although major powers may well tolerate a nuclearized Iran, its neighbors face daunting security challenges to protect and promote preferred regional interests, including tested alliances with key Western governments. Saudi Arabia and its smaller Arab Gulf partners will need to exercise savvy policies to prevent a fourth regional war before the first decade of the 21st century is out. They may even have to address intrinsic political and socioeconomic reforms to preserve existing privileges.