scholarly journals Coverage versus Confidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peyton Cook

This article is intended to help students understand the concept of a coverage probability involving confidence intervals. Mathematica is used as a language for describing an algorithm to compute the coverage probability for a simple confidence interval based on the binomial distribution. Then, higher-level functions are used to compute probabilities of expressions in order to obtain coverage probabilities. Several examples are presented: two confidence intervals for a population proportion based on the binomial distribution, an asymptotic confidence interval for the mean of the Poisson distribution, and an asymptotic confidence interval for a population proportion based on the negative binomial distribution.

1969 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. 883-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gene D. Amman

AbstractPopulations of the balsam woolly aphid on Fraser fir trees were sampled without replacement. Sampling frequency was based on the embryological period of the aphid at mean monthly temperatures in the field. The sample for each date consisted of 16 pieces of bark, 1/2 in. diameter, from each of 10 trees. Precision of the method was usually within ±10% of the mean. The largest proportion of variance was within trees. Stratification of samples by levels within trees decreased variance estimates.Frequency distributions of counts of most stages of the aphid approximated the negative binomial distribution. Therefore, data were transformed to logarithms in order to approximate the normal distribution.


Parasitology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 129 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. STEAR ◽  
K. BAIRDEN ◽  
G. T. INNOCENT ◽  
S. MITCHELL ◽  
S. STRAIN ◽  
...  

The number ofTeladorsagia circumcincta4th-stage larvae in naturally infected lambs from a single farm varied among lambs and among different years. Within each year the distribution of 4th-stage larvae among lambs was similar to that expected from a negative binomial distribution. The ratio of 4th-stage larvae to adultT. circumcinctawas low in two years with a low mean intensity of infection but high in two years with a higher mean intensity of infection. The negative binomial distribution is defined by the mean and byk, a parameter that measures dispersion;kwas low when mean infection intensity was low but higher when mean infection intensity was high. Askis an inverse index of overdispersion this indicated that the distribution of 4th-stage larvae was more overdispersed at low levels of infection. In a combined analysis, the number of adultT. circumcinctaand the plasma IgA activity against 4th-stage larvae were both associated with increased numbers of 4th-stage larvae. There was a statistical interaction between the number of adults and IgA activity that moderated their combined effect.


1953 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 457 ◽  
Author(s):  
DW Goodall

An improved estimate of the mean cover repetition in the centres of tussocks may be obtained by fitting a negative binomial distribution by successive approximation.


Parasitology ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 117 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. STEAR ◽  
K. BAIRDEN ◽  
S. C. BISHOP ◽  
G. GETTINBY ◽  
Q. A. McKELLAR ◽  
...  

The impact of mixed, nematode infection upon a group of animals will depend upon the number of nematodes present, how they are distributed among hosts and whether individuals that are heavily parasitized with one species are more likely to be heavily parasitized with other species. A survey of over 500 six-month-old, Scottish Blackface lambs from a single farm in Southwest Strathclyde identified 7 different categories of nematodes in the abomasum and small intestine. There were considerable differences among years and among nematodes in the prevalence and mean intensity of infection. Ostertagia circumcincta was present in nearly all lambs and judged by prevalence and intensity is one of the most successful of all parasitic nematodes. Each category of nematodes had a skewed distribution; most animals had relatively few worms but a small proportion had many worms. The variances of the number of nematodes in each category were approximately equal to the square of the mean. The counts of adult O. circumcincta followed a negative binomial distribution, but the negative binomial distribution did not provide a good description of the observed values for the other species. These other species had a lower prevalence and possibly some sheep were not exposed to infection. There was no significant genetic variation among lambs in the number of nematodes present and therefore the differences among these lambs were unlikely to be a consequence of genetic differences in host susceptibility. Lambs with increased numbers of one species were more likely to have increased numbers of the other species, but the correlations were weak and may reflect covariation in exposure to different parasites.


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