scholarly journals Uncertainty‐driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 587-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Johannes Pfeifer
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Wage Setting ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
The Standard Model ◽  
Model Channel ◽  
Negative Output

Precautionary pricing and increasing markups in representative‐agent DSGE models with nominal rigidities are commonly used to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks. We assess whether this theoretical model channel is consistent with the data. Three things stand out. First, consistent with precautionary wage setting, we find that wage markups increase after uncertainty shocks. Second, the impulse responses of price markups are largely inconsistent with the standard model, both at the aggregate as well as the industry level. Finally, and in contrast to times‐series evidence, our theoretical model robustly predicts that uncertainty shocks have a quantitatively small impact on the economy.

scholarly journals Incentives and Careers in Academia: Theory and Empirical Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Daniele Checchi ◽  
Gianni De Fraja ◽  
Stefano Verzillo
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Standard Model ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Career Concerns ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
University Professors ◽  
The Standard Model ◽  
Journal Publications ◽  
All Pay Auction ◽  
Identification Strategy

We study career concerns in Italian academia. We mould our empirical analysis on the standard model of contests, formalised in the multi-unit all-pay auction. The number of posts, the number of applicants, and the relative importance of the criteria for promotion determine academics' effort and output. In Italian universities incentives operate only through promotion, and all appointment panels are drawn from strictly separated and relatively narrow scientific sectors: thus the parameters affecting payoffs can be measured quite precisely, and we take the model to a newly constructed dataset which collects the journal publications of all Italian university professors. Our identification strategy is based on a reform introduced in 1999, parts of which affected different academics differently. We find that individual researchers respond to incentives in the manner described by the theoretical model: roughly, more capable researchers respond to increases in the importance of the publications for promotion and in the competitiveness of the scientific sector by exerting more effort; less able researchers are discouraged by competition and do the opposite.

Measuring Uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 1177-1216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Jurado ◽  
Sydney C. Ludvigson ◽  
Serena Ng
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty

This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are larger, more persistent, and are more correlated with real activity. Our estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate theories for which uncertainty shocks play a role in business cycles. (JEL C53, D81, E32, G12, G35, L25)

scholarly journals Uncertainty, agency costs and investment behavior in the Euro area and in the USA

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-143
Author(s):  
Johannes Strobel ◽  
Kevin D. Salyer ◽  
Gabriel S. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Agency Cost ◽  
Investment Behavior ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the credit channel effects on investment behavior for the US and the Euro area. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and calibrates a version of the Carlstrom and Fuerst’s (1997) agency cost model of business cycles with time-varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. To highlight the differences between the US and European financial sectors, the paper focuses on two key components of the lending channel: the risk premium associated with bank loans and the bankruptcy rates. Findings This paper shows that the effects of minor differences in the credit market translate into large, persistent and asymmetric fluctuations in real and financial variables and depend on the type of shocks. The results imply that the Euro areas supply elasticities for capital are less elastic than that of the USA following a technology shock. Finally, the authors find that the adverse impact of uncertainty shocks is heterogeneous across countries and amplified by the steady-state bankruptcy rate and risk premium. Originality/value This paper quantifies the effects of uncertainty shocks when there is a credit channel due to asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers for the Euro area countries, and then compares the results to that of the USA. This paper shows that financial accelerator mechanism could potentially play a significant role in business cycles in the Euro area. This result directly lends one to conclude the following: the credit channel that affects the financial sector does indeed matter for macroeconomic behavior, and that policy makers should be attentive in smoothing out uncertainties if the economic policies are to lower the business and financial cycle volatilities.

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