scholarly journals A Model for IT/IS Project Portfolio Selection in the Presence of Uncertainty: Combination of Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Fuzzy Mathematical Programming

2012 ◽  
Vol 488-489 ◽  
pp. 411-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reihaneh Amel Sadeghi ◽  
Mehdi Seifbarghy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mathematical Programming ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematical Programming ◽  
Mathematical Programming Model ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Second Stage

IT/IS represents a substantial financial investment for many organizations. Making IT project portfolio decision is difficult, because long lead times of IT project and market and technology dynamics lead to unavailable and unreliable collected data for portfolio management. This uncertainty has been modeled using fuzzy concepts. We need a collective model that will help decision-makers evaluate potential new investment projects in an easy, cost-effective, and collective manner. Hence, we propose a new approach based on the fuzzy multi-criteria decision model (FMCDM) and a fuzzy binary multi-objective linear programming model, featuring a 2-stage evaluation and selection process with 19 criteria for IT/IS investment. At the first stage, evaluation, all stakeholders in a corporation can decide the relative weights they give to the criteria when they evaluate a new IT/IS project by using linguistic values. Experts can also use linguistic values to evaluate all candidates easily. Only an Excel worksheet is needed to obtain an evaluation result. The results of FMCDM of the aforementioned are treated as input of a fuzzy binary mathematical programming model as coefficients of objective functions, which is the second stage of the proposed model. In the second stage, selection, we have developed a fuzzy binary mathematical programming model in order to find an optimum combination of investment portfolio considering a multi-objective measurement function in three ways: to maximize the benefit, to maximize the confidence level and to minimize the cost of projects in a complete ambiguous condition, when their initial investment costs, profits, confidence levels, resource requirements and total available budgets are assumed to be uncertain. We solve it in Lingo 10.0 through a Branch and Bound algorithm. In this paper, for the first time we have developed a model for IT/IS project portfolio selection in presence of uncertainty that is combination of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making and fuzzy mathematical programming with 19 criteria that is compatible with the nature of IT projects. We conduct a case study to show how this model can be used and discuss the results.

Optimal project portfolio selection with reinvestment strategy considering sustainability in an uncertain environment: a multi-objective optimization approach

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadali Zarjou ◽  
Mohammad Khalilzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Programming ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Sustainability Indicators ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Mathematical Programming Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Project Portfolio Selection

PurposeThis study aims to develop a model for project portfolio selection considering organizational goals such as budgets, sustainability cash flow and reinvestment strategy under an uncertain environment.Design/methodology/approachA multi-objective mathematical programming model is proposed for project selection, which takes the social, environmental and financial aspects into account as the objectives of the project portfolio selection problem. The project evaluation and selection process in one of the large capitals in the Middle East with numerous urban construction projects was considered as a real case study, in which the subjects of environmental and social sustainability are of great importance. Then, the most significant criteria for project evaluation and selection based on sustainability were identified and ranked using the fuzzy best-worst method (BWM).FindingsThe criterion of “defining clear and real objectives” was ranked first, “project investment return period” was ranked second, “minimum changes in the predicted range” was ranked third, and the other ten sustainability indicators were ranked as well. Next, the presented mathematical programming model was solved using the augmented e-constraint method. The sensitivity analysis indicated that increasing the amount of investments in projects would increase their net present value. Also, increased investment had no effect on sustainability, while decreased investment caused sustainability to not being optimal.Originality/valueThis study focuses on the impact of the amount of investments on projects, and the associated costs of sustainable projects. Further to the authors' knowledge, there has been no relevant study taking uncertainty into account. Also, very few studies proposed a mathematical programming model for the project portfolio selection problem. Moreover, this research uses the brainstorming and Delphi method to identify the sustainability indicators influencing the organization and screens the evaluation indicators. Furthermore, the weights of the evaluation indicators are determined using the fuzzy BWM based on the consistency of opinions.

CREDIBILITY-BASED FUZZY MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 101-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
MUKESH KUMAR MEHLAWAT ◽  
PANKAJ GUPTA
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Programming ◽  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Fuzzy Optimization ◽  
Chance Constrained Programming ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematical Programming ◽  
Mathematical Programming Model ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Solution Approach ◽  
Practical Applications

In this paper, we develop a hybrid bi-objective credibility-based fuzzy mathematical programming model for portfolio selection under fuzzy environment. To deal with imprecise parameters, we use a hybrid credibility-based approach that combines the expected value and chance constrained programming techniques. The model simultaneously maximizes the portfolio return and minimizes the portfolio risk. We also consider an additional important criterion, namely, portfolio liquidity as a constraint in the model to make it better suited for practical applications. The proposed fuzzy optimization model is solved using a two-phase approach. An empirical study is included to demonstrate applicability of the proposed model and the solution approach in real-world applications of portfolio selection.

Multi-objective mathematical model based on fuzzy hybrid multi-criteria decision-making and FMEA approach for the risks of oil and gas projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1997-2016
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khalilzadeh ◽  
Rose Balafshan ◽  
Ashkan Hafezalkotob
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
Grey Relational

Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for analyzing risk factors in oil and gas projects. Design/methodology/approach This paper consists of several sections. In the first section, 19 common potential risks in the projects of Pars Oil and Gas Company were finalized in six groups using the Lawshe validation method. These factors were identified through previous literature review and interviews with experts. Then, using the “best-worst multi-criteria decision-making” method, the study measured the weights associated with the performance evaluation indicators of each risk. Consequently, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and the grey relational analysis (GRA)-VIKOR mixed method were used to rank and determine the critical risks. Finally, to assign response strategies to each critical risk, a zero-one multi-objective mathematical programming model was proposed and developed Epsilon-constraint method was used to solve it. Findings Given the typical constraints of projects which are time, cost and quality, of the projects that companies are often faced with, this study presents the identified risks of oil and gas projects to the managers of the oil and gas company in accordance with the priority given in the present research and the response to each risk is also suggested to be used by managers based on their organizational circumstances. Originality/value This study aims at qualitative management of cost risks of oil and gas projects (case study of Pars Oil and Gas Company) by combining FMEA, best worst and GRA-VIKOR methods under fuzzy environment and Epsilon constraints. According to studies carried out in previous studies, the simultaneous management of quantitative and qualitative cost of risk of oil and gas projects in Iran has not been carried out and the combination of these methods has also been innovated.

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