Long-Term Probability Prediction on the Extreme Sea States Induced by Typhoon of the South China Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 833-841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Pang ◽  
Xuan Chen ◽  
Yu Long Li
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
South China ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Wave Period ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Long Term Prediction

The sea state of the South China Sea is influenced by tropical cyclone obviously. It is important to carry out the long-term prediction and probability analysis of typhoon wind, wave height and wave period for the coastal and offshore engineering. In this paper the measured wind and wave data during typhoon processes from 1964-1989 are used to predict the long-term extreme sea states by using Grey Markov Chain Model. And the joint probability analysis of extreme wave height with concomitant wave period and wind speed is performed by using Multivariate Compound Extreme Distribution model which involves typhoon occurrence frequency and corresponding joint probability distribution of typhoon induced extreme sea environmental events. The proposed model shows that the mean value of typhoon occurring frequency per year plays the significant role in long term prediction of typhoon induced joint return values of extreme sea events.

scholarly journals Long-Term Prediction of Significant Wave Height Based on SARIMA Model in the South China Sea and Adjacent Waters

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 88082-88092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobo Yang ◽  
Zhenquan Zhang ◽  
Linlin Fan ◽  
Tianliang Xia ◽  
Shanhua Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
South China ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Long Term Prediction

scholarly journals Long-Term Variability of Extreme Significant Wave Height in the South China Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adekunle Osinowo ◽  
Xiaopei Lin ◽  
Dongliang Zhao ◽  
Zhifeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
South China ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Wave Hindcast ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Increasing Trend

This paper describes long-term spatiotemporal trends in extreme significant wave height (SWH) in the South China Sea (SCS) based on 30-year wave hindcast. High-resolution reanalysis wind field data sets are employed to drive a spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III™ (WW3). The wave hindcast information is validated using altimeter wave information (Topex/Poseidon). The model performance is satisfactory. Subsequently, the trends in yearly/seasonal/monthly mean extreme SWH are analyzed. Results showed that trends greater than 0.05 m yr−1are distributed over a large part of the central SCS. During winter, strong positive trends (0.07–0.08 m yr−1) are found in the extreme northeast SCS. Significant trends greater than 0.01 m yr−1are distributed over most parts of the central SCS in spring. In summer, significant increasing trends (0.01–0.05 m yr−1) are distributed over most regions below latitude 16°N. During autumn, strong positive trends between 0.02 and 0.08 m yr−1are found in small regions above latitude 12°N. Increasing positive trends are found to be generally significant in the central SCS in December, February, March, and July. Furthermore, temporal trend analysis showed that the extreme SWH exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.011 m yr−1. The extreme SWH exhibits the strongest increasing trend of 0.03 m yr−1in winter and showed a decreasing trend of −0.0098 m yr−1in autumn.

Reconstruction and analysis of long-term satellite-derived sea surface temperature for the South China Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 707-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Ngu T. Huynh ◽  
Aida Alvera-Azcárate ◽  
Alexander Barth ◽  
Jean-Marie Beckers
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
South China ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The South ◽  
China Sea

scholarly journals Long-term Cycles in the Ocean Carbon Reservoir: Records From the South China Sea

PAGES news ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinxian Wang ◽  
Jun Tian ◽  
Xinrong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Carbon Reservoir ◽  
Ocean Carbon

scholarly journals Domestic Protests and Foreign Policy: An Examination of Anti-China Protests in Vietnam and Vietnamese Policy Towards China Regarding the South China Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Phuong Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Security Concern

The Sino-Vietnamese relationship is characterized by asymmetry, yet Vietnam’s post-Cold War foreign policy towards China encompasses three paradigms: (a) internal and external balancing against China, (b) greater international integration to prevent political and economic dependence on China and (c) ‘cooperation’ with China on mutual interests while ‘struggling’ against China’s encroachment on Vietnam’s sovereignty. The ongoing dispute in the South China Sea presents a primary security concern for Vietnam as well as a challenge to its bilateral relations with China, particularly as maritime tensions provoke nationalist and anti-China protests among the Vietnamese public. This article presents an analysis of anti-China protests in Vietnam that resulted from South China Sea tensions between 2007 and 2017 in order to examine whether the protests—which are rare in Vietnam—had any effect on Vietnam’s foreign policy towards China. The findings reveal that the protests did not result in a change in Vietnam’s foreign policy towards China both during the maritime crises or in the long term.

Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea

Asian Survey ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 1019-1042 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Scott
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
South China ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Short Term ◽  
China Sea ◽  
And Control

Abstract In the South China Sea dispute, some Track-2 settings, along with Track-1 efforts by ASEAN and China, have facilitated some conflict “management.” But they have not brought about conflict “resolution” of the basic sovereignty and control issues. Conflict “irresolution” has ensued instead. Short-term balancing may perhaps generate long-term socialization convergence.

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