Research on Logistics Demand Forecast in Southeast Asia

Objective - The objective of this paper is to establish the forecasting models of port cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port in the next 5 years, and to put forward the countermeasures of port logistics development in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port according to the forecast results. Methodology/Technique – The data of cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2009-2020 are collected through the data of Guangxi Statistical Yearbook and Guangxi Statistical Bulletin. Based on 2019 and 2020, the forecasting models of cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou are establishe using a weighted moving average forecasting method. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2020/2021-2025 are predicted. Findings – The forecast results show that by 2025, the cargo throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port is expected to exceed 400 million tons, and the container throughput is expected to exceed 10 million TEU. According to the fitting diagram of forecast results and actual data, it can be seen that the accuracy of the forecast results is very high. Novelty – It is innovative to select 2 base years in 2019 and 2020 to establish forecasting model. Based on the comparative analysis of the forecast results, this paper puts forward various measures to promote the development of port logistics of Guangxi Beibu Gulf port, such as strengthening the construction of port self-condition, strengthening the co-ordinated development of port and economic hinterland, speeding up the construction of port collection and distribution system, training and introducing all kinds of high-quality port logistics talents. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: C53, R41. Keywords: Logistics Demand Forecast; Cargo Throughput Forecast; Container Throughput Forecast; Weighted Moving Average Forecasting Method; Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Yue, N. (2021). Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port, GATR Global J. Bus. Soc. Sci. Review, 9(1): 73 – 89. https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.1(9)

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Rural Logistics Demand Forecast Based on Gray Neural Network Model

Proceedings of the 2018 3rd International Workshop on Materials Engineering and Computer Sciences (IWMECS 2018) ◽

10.2991/iwmecs-18.2018.34 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Zhengyi Yang

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Network Model ◽

Neural Network Model ◽

Demand Forecast ◽

Logistics Demand

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Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

11th GLOBAL CONFERENCE ON BUSINESS AND SOCIAL SCIENCES - Global Conference on Business and Social Sciences Proceeding ◽

10.35609/gcbssproceeding.2020.11(153) ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 153-153

Author(s):

Guoyou Yue

Keyword(s):

Moving Average ◽

Prediction Method ◽

Western China ◽

Beibu Gulf ◽

Demand Forecast ◽

Healthy Development ◽

Port Logistics ◽

Asean Countries ◽

Logistics Demand ◽

Cargo Throughput

In February 2007, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region People's Government integrated Fangcheng, Qinzhou and Beihai three coastal ports to establish Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group Co., LTD. At this point, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port integration of three, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port ushered in a major development opportunity. Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port is one of the important ports in China's coastal cities open to the outside world. It is the meeting point of the three economic circles of South China, Southwest China and ASEAN, and also the most convenient land and sea passage between China and ASEAN countries. With the vigorous implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the construction of new land and sea passages in western China, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port has become an important gateway and connection point for the implementation of these strategies. Its strategic status keeps rising, and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port has also developed rapidly. In recent years, how is the port logistics development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port? What are the changing rules and trends of its cargo throughput and container throughput? What measures can continuously and effectively promote the port logistics development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port? This paper will carry out research and analysis on these problems in order to better promote the healthy development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port. Keywords: Logistics demand forecast, Cargo throughput forecast, Container throughput forecast, Weighted moving average prediction method, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

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