Prediction Study of Tianjin Port Throughput Based on GM (1, 1) Extended Model

Tianjin Port is the largest comprehensive main hub port and one of the main transshipment ports for energy and raw materials transportation in northern China. It has freight business with many countries. At the same time, Tianjin Port is the first port to carry out international maritime container transportation in China’s coastal areas. Tianjin Port was built in the 1950s, and the container business has been started since 1973, In recent years, with the rapid development of large-scale, intensive and intelligent container ships in Tianjin Port, cargo throughput is an important indicator in the comprehensive evaluation of port development, which represents the development level of a port. At the same time, it also brings new tasks to the navigation guarantee work, in particular, it puts forward systematic requirements for port and wharf construction, navigation aids layout, navigation aids efficiency display and navigation aids base layout. The annual throughput of port cargo or container is one of the bases of world ports. As an output index, port enterprises, shipping companies, navigation guarantee departments and shipping economic analysis departments attach great importance to it. Therefore, the prediction of Tianjin Port cargo throughput can provide reference for Tianjin Port’s next development planning, waterway use and navigation guarantee planning and layout, navigation aids setting, wharf construction, route mapping, etc. the article constructs of Tianjin Port. The average error is 0.29%, and the prediction accuracy is first class. This model can better predict the change trend of cargo for Tianjin Port, which is a better way to analyze the change trend for Tianjin port.

Does Airport Preferential Policy Aggravate the Competition of Aviation Hubs in Central and Western China? Based on the Investigation of 78 Airports

China’s regional economic competition is intensifying; in particular, the cluster development of air transport, high-end manufacturing, and modern service industries is closely related to the construction of regional airports. Local governments have listed aviation hubs as the hardcore advantage of high-quality growth in the new era, but it may also lead to excessive convergence and preferential system competition. Based on the “GDP competition” of local governments in China, this paper uses panel data of 78 airports in mainland China from 2001 to 2018 and tries to explore the causes of airport preferential policies. The Synthetic Control Method is used to study the influence of preferential policies on airport passenger and cargo flow, and then the Spatial Durbin Model is used to verify the spatial spillover effect of aviation hubs, which may be magnified by the preferential policies. This paper finds that the impact of preferential policies on airports in central and western China is mainly reflected in the increase of cargo throughput, and there is a spatial siphon effect on cargo throughput between airports. The implementation of the preferential policy enhances this spatial siphon effect, which in turn leads to more fierce competition. The research results show that the preferential policies, issued in central and western aviation economy, have shown a trend of evolving in the direction of vicious competition. Before the airport preferential system produces more negative effects, it should be corrected in time, and each aviation economic zone in the central and western regions should be scientifically coordinated and reasonably planned.

Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

Objective - The objective of this paper is to establish the forecasting models of port cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port in the next 5 years, and to put forward the countermeasures of port logistics development in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port according to the forecast results. Methodology/Technique – The data of cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2009-2020 are collected through the data of Guangxi Statistical Yearbook and Guangxi Statistical Bulletin. Based on 2019 and 2020, the forecasting models of cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou are establishe using a weighted moving average forecasting method. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2020/2021-2025 are predicted. Findings – The forecast results show that by 2025, the cargo throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port is expected to exceed 400 million tons, and the container throughput is expected to exceed 10 million TEU. According to the fitting diagram of forecast results and actual data, it can be seen that the accuracy of the forecast results is very high. Novelty – It is innovative to select 2 base years in 2019 and 2020 to establish forecasting model. Based on the comparative analysis of the forecast results, this paper puts forward various measures to promote the development of port logistics of Guangxi Beibu Gulf port, such as strengthening the construction of port self-condition, strengthening the co-ordinated development of port and economic hinterland, speeding up the construction of port collection and distribution system, training and introducing all kinds of high-quality port logistics talents. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: C53, R41. Keywords: Logistics Demand Forecast; Cargo Throughput Forecast; Container Throughput Forecast; Weighted Moving Average Forecasting Method; Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Yue, N. (2021). Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port, GATR Global J. Bus. Soc. Sci. Review, 9(1): 73 – 89. https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.1(9)

Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

In February 2007, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region People's Government integrated Fangcheng, Qinzhou and Beihai three coastal ports to establish Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group Co., LTD. At this point, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port integration of three, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port ushered in a major development opportunity. Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port is one of the important ports in China's coastal cities open to the outside world. It is the meeting point of the three economic circles of South China, Southwest China and ASEAN, and also the most convenient land and sea passage between China and ASEAN countries. With the vigorous implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the construction of new land and sea passages in western China, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port has become an important gateway and connection point for the implementation of these strategies. Its strategic status keeps rising, and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port has also developed rapidly. In recent years, how is the port logistics development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port? What are the changing rules and trends of its cargo throughput and container throughput? What measures can continuously and effectively promote the port logistics development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port? This paper will carry out research and analysis on these problems in order to better promote the healthy development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port. Keywords: Logistics demand forecast, Cargo throughput forecast, Container throughput forecast, Weighted moving average prediction method, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

Port Revenue Performance and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Ports Authority Experience, 2010-2019

The Study examined Port Revenue Performance and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Ports Authority Experience, 2010 to 2019. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of Port Revenue Performance on Nigeria's economic growth by critically evaluating the Nigerian Ports Authority Performance. The neoclassical growth theory was employed in the study and the Nigeria Ports Authority was chosen as its sample, covering the period from 2010 to 2019. The study used secondary time series data sourced from the Nigeria Ports Authority and the National Bureau of Statistics and used the ordinary least square regression and the Engle-Granger co-integration to test the variables at the 5% level of significance. The findings showed that total revenue to gross registered tonnage had positive and significant effect on economic growth while operating surplus to operating revenue showed a negative but significant effect and operating surplus to cargo throughput showed insignificant effect; there was no co-integration between the variables. The study concludes that Port revenue performance affects economic growth in the short-run only, and it recommends amongst others that policy makers should formulate appropriate and implementable regulatory framework that will address infrastructural deficits at the ports and stimulate increased utilization by major foreign vessel companies.

Emission Inventory of Marine Traffic for the Port of Šibenik

The paper estimates the exhaust emissions of marine traffic in the port of Šibenik. The results of the analysis were obtained by including the following gaseous pollutants: nitrogen oxide (NOX), sulphur oxide (SOX), particulate matter (PM), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon dioxide (CO2) as greenhouse gas. In order to gain results and estimate the emission of harmful gases in the port of Šibenik, the passenger and the cargo throughput were taken into account. The activities of the ship during which the exhaust gases are emitted into the atmosphere are slow cruising in the reduced speed zone, manoeuvring and hotelling. The “bottom-up” method used in the emission estimation takes into account the ship’s engine power, engine load factor, fuel type, the emission factor, time of cruising and time hotelling in the port of Šibenik. The results of the analysis have shown that approximately 70 % of total emissions come from passenger ships (cruise ships) and 30 % from cargo ships.

Port-Related Emissions, Environmental Impacts and Their Implication on Green Traffic Policy in Shanghai

The port of Shanghai, as the world’s largest container port, has been experiencing rapid development in recent years, with increasing cargo throughput capacity. The combustion of diesel fuels used by internal and external port-related container trucks and in-port machineries can release various pollutants, causing air pollution. The terminals are close to the residential area, and the emissions are concentrated, which is worth paying attention to. This study aims to synthetically assess the port-related emissions and their environmental impacts. We firstly constructed an emission inventory of air pollutants in the port of Shanghai and then used the WRF-CMAQ model to estimate the influence of port-related source emissions on air quality. The results show that the annual emissions of SO2, NOX, CO, VOCS, PM, PM10, PM2.5, CO2, BC and OC caused by cargo-handling equipment were 21.88 t, 1811.22 t, 1741.72 t, 222.76 t, 61.52 t, 61.42 t, 58.41 t, 141,805.40 t, 26.80 t and 10.07 t in 2015. The emissions of NOX, CO, VOCS, PM10 and PM2.5 caused by external port-related container trucks were 18,002.92 t, 5308.0 t, 1134.57 t, 711.12 t and 640.58 t. The exhaust of external port-related container trucks was much larger than that of cargo-handling equipment, so the impact on air quality was also higher than that of the machinery. The peak annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and NOX contributed by the port-related sources were 1.75 μg/m3 and 49.21 μg/m3, respectively, which accounted for 3.08% and 36.7%, respectively, of the simulated ambient concentrations by all the anthropogenic emissions in Shanghai. Our results imply that the emission control policy to reduce the combined port-related emissions, especially for the cargo-delivery transportation phase from port to city, is key for large coastal port cities such as Shanghai.

The Relationship Between Cote D'ivoire's Political Situation And Burkina Faso's Maritime Transit Cargo Throughput That Passed Through Ghana

Ghana rose from an insignificant position in 1997/8 to become the topmost maritime transit corridor for landlocked countries in West Africa and particularly for Burkina Faso around 2006. Since then, Ghana's transit corridor has, generally, been recording a declining trend in the yearly percentage throughput of Burkina Faso's maritime transit cargo that is transported along it. Popular opinion in the transit business in West Africa suggests a negative relationship between the level of Ce d'Ivoire's political stability and Burkina Faso's maritime transit cargo throughput that is transported along Ghana's transit corridor. This work, using data drawn from 1998, 2000 and 2002-2014 investigated the empirical veracity of such an opinion. Data were sourced from World Governance Indicators and also through questionnaires that were administered to a sample drawn from five major stakeholder official institutions involved in transit trade in Ghana. The study found a significant negative relationship between Ce d'Ivoire's political stability rank and Burkina Faso's maritime transit cargo throughput that was transported through Ghana's corridor over the specified period. The study, among others, recommends a reduction in the number of transit check points and the associated delays and bribery along Ghana's road corridor so as to make it more efficient and competitive in West Africa. Keywords: Land-locked country; transit; cargo; throughput; corridor; and 'transitor'