Public debt sustainability and fiscal management in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Mohamad Ikhsan ◽  
I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda

The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government’s fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia’s fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.


2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-518
Author(s):  
P. S. Renjith ◽  
K. R. Shanmugam

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-173
Author(s):  
Debapriya Bhattacharya ◽  
Zeeshan Ashraf

This article examines the sustainability of public debt in Bangladesh under alternative future scenarios based on simulation exercises for the period of FY2017 to FY2026. It adopts the debt-stabilizing primary balance approach (DPSBA) and International Monetary Fund/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). The findings of the former indicate that Bangladesh will be able to service its increasing public debt as long as its economic growth rate remains higher than the real interest rate payable on debt. Public debt also appears to be sustainable according to variables tested under the DSF. However, findings indicate that Bangladesh has been and would continue allocating an increasing share of its revenue to external debt repayment, creating a trade-off with investment in growth-oriented sectors. JEL Classification: H63, H68, H69, H81, G28


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Chara Vavoura ◽  
Ioannis Vavouras

The issue of public debt sustainability is of exceptional importance in the case of Greece. As a rule, the relevant analysis is limited to the examination of the fiscal policy measures reported to contribute to reducing public debt leaving out the investigation of the factors that caused the country’s debt crisis. The objective of the present paper is to explore the determinants of Greece’s debt crisis and the strategy required to address it. Our work highlights the issue of social development, which is found to be a necessary condition for ensuring the long run sustainability of the country’s public debt.


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