Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry

The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government’s fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia’s fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.

Mobility Pattern Changes in Indonesia in Response to COVID-19

All countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have established several policies to control the spread of the disease. The government of Indonesia has enforced a work-from-home policy and large-scale social restrictions in most regions that result in the changes in community mobility in various categories of places. This study aims to (1) investigate the impact of large-scale restrictions on provincial-level mobility in Indonesia, (2) categorize provinces based on mobility patterns, and (3) investigate regional socio-economic characteristics that may lead to different mobility patterns. This study utilized Provincial-level Google Mobility Index, Flight data scraped from daily web, and regional characteristics (e.g., poverty rate, percentages of informal workers). A Dynamic Time Warping method was employed to investigate the clusters of mobility. The study shows an intense trade-off of mobility pattern between residential areas and public areas. In general, during the first 2.5 months of the pandemic, people had reduced their activities in public areas and preferred to stay at home. Meanwhile, provinces have different mobility patterns from each other during the period of the large-scale restrictions. The differences in mobility are mainly led by the percentage of formal workers in each region.

Does Uncertainty Matter for Trade - Economic Growth Nexus in Indonesia?

This paper aims to test the impact of uncertainty on the causal relationship among exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia. The relationship is constructed by examining the presence of FDI-adjusted exports and imports (trade) and the output link using conditional variances-covariances derived from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process in a vector error correction model (VEC-GARCH model). Using evidence in Indonesia, the model exposes the uni-directional nexus from trade performance to trade-adjusted output growth in the absence of uncertainty. The volatility effects are evident in the causal relationship between trade and output. The finding shows that the uncertainty effects hamper the trade-economic growth nexus. Incorporated with the long-run causality, trade still causes output even after containing the contributions of volatility. The significant role of imports highlights the higher demand for intermediate capital products and the inclusion of technology in strengthening economic growth.

Measuring the Productivity of the Foods and Beverages Industries in Indonesia: What Factors Matter?

The foods and beverages industries have shown the largest share of output in the manufacturing sector of Indonesia for more than a decade. This study aims to investigate its performance indicators through the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) and its determinants, such as imported raw materials, exports, absorptive capacity, firm size, market concentration, and capital ownership. This study employed firm-level panel data from 2008–2015 and the Growth Accounting method of Solow residual in addition to the fixed effects model to estimate TFP growth and its determinants. The results show that the foods and beverages industries in Indonesia showed positive TFP growth from 2008–2015. Moreover, variables of absorptive capacity, firm size, and market concentration promote the TFP growth of firms. Meanwhile, import intensity discourages TFP growth. However, within a certain threshold, firms with import activities perform better than non-importer firms. However, imports and exports may entail transfer of technology and knowledge and will be the bridge between the firms and the advanced market. This study recommends that policy makers increase the managerial capabilities of firms through a more massive training program as well as provide incentives to workers in the form of rewards or relief of income tax, while also improve product competitiveness through more intensive programs on the Indonesian National Standard (SNI) and the Domestic Component Level (TKDN).

Credit Limit of Unsecured Consumer Lending: Evidence from Micro Data

As credit card debts have increased in Indonesia over the past ten years, concerns over the impulsive buying behavior of Indonesian credit card holders have emerged. Therefore, more attention must be paid to credit risk management of banks as it plays an important role in analyzing the possibility of losses due to the inability of prospective borrowers to repay debts. This study provides empirical evidence about the prudence of commercial banks in Greater Jakarta in offering credit card limits. Using primary micro-data collected from credit card applications submitted to the largest foreign private bank providing retail credit in the Greater Jakarta area in 2019, this study employed multiple regression model to analyze the determinants of credit card limits in the Greater Jakarta. Our empirical findings suggest that age, home location, income, type of industry, and office location of prospective borrowers significantly influence credit card limits. Commercial banks in the Greater Jakarta, thus, have been prudent in offering credit card limits.

Factors to Improve Fishery Household Welfare: Empirical Analysis of Indonesia

This study attempts to verify the linkage between the characteristics of fishers and the welfare of fishery household in Indonesia, which is explained by the surplus obtained by fishers. Based on the empirical results using multiple linear regression analysis, variables with significant impacts on improving the welfare of fishery household in Indonesia in both marine and inland open water fisheries are fishing gear, number of fishers, number of crew, salary, province, age, gender, education level, processed storage, transportation, and market target. Furthermore, the characteristics of fishers are divided into similarities and differences. Observed from the similarities, the main fishers play a prominent role to fulfill the daily needs of their families. Observed from the differences, fishers in marine fisheries prefer to use a boat with an inboard motor, prepare more funds, and require more crew members because they usually catch fish on long trips. On the other hand, fishers in inland open water fisheries prefer to use a boat without an inboard motor, prepare less funds, and require less crew members because they usually catch fish on short trips. The government needs to formulate effective, efficient, and targeted policies for the welfare of fishers. The findings suggest several policy recommendations related to the improvement of fishery household welfare in Indonesia, such as soft loan in the form of People’s Business Credit (KUR), storage facilities for a better supply chain, and revitalization of fish auction sites.

Indonesian Provinces SDGs Composite Index: Lampung Province Analysis

Publications of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have mainly been conducted at a national level and separately for each goal. No prior research has been done on SDGs composite index at a provincial level in Indonesia. It is necessary to create a composite index that presents a single value at the provincial level to enable regional evaluation. The Indonesia Province SDGs composite index is developed from indicators based on Statistics Indonesia gathered from several publications. The data sources are the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and the Basic Health Research (Riskesdas) which were linked surveys held in 2018. Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis are used as the methods to select the indicators of the SDGs. Those selected indicators are then normalized using the min-max method and subsequently weighted using factor loading derived from the principal component analysis. Finally, the indicators are aggregated using an arithmetic mean to determine the composite index. The Indonesia Province SDGs composite index is an approach to measure achievement of SDGs agenda. In addition, each goal achievement is summarized as a goal index. The SDGs composite index for Lampung Province is 52.2%, meaning that Lampung Province is 52.2% of the way to fully achieving the SDGs, according to the measures used to calculate this index. The findings on goal index suggest that development is highly requested on public services such as housing and water supply.

The Impact of Mother’s Bargaining Power on the Nutritional Status of Children in Indonesia

Poor nutritional status, especially during childhood, has a negative impact on one’s early life as well as throughout their life. One of the factors that influences the improvement of children’s nutritional status is the bargaining power of the mother. Previous studies have limitations in that they often use cross-sectional data and indirect approaches to measuring bargaining power. This study aims to measure the impact of maternal bargaining power on children’s nutritional status in Indonesia. The unit of analysis is children aged 7–19 years (IFLS5) who still have and live with their parents (IFLS4). Using the OLS estimation method, the results show that maternal bargaining power significantly and positively influences the nutritional status of children (HA z-score).

Islamic Financial Literacy Index of Students: Bridging SDGs of Islamic Finance

This research aims to measure the level of Islamic financial literacy among students by reviewing 2 dimensions, 8 variables, and 33 indicators obtained from literature studies and experts. This study applied mix method to qualitative and quantitative data with a total sample of 273 respondents. The data were obtained from interview and online FGD and then processed by word similarity analysis as well as validity and reliability tests, the results of which are used as reference and conclusion. The analysis shows that the level of understanding of financial literacy among students remains significantly low, proven by the value of the interpretation of respondents reaching below 40% despite valid and reliable variables and indicators. Meanwhile, the analysis of the relationship between each variable that consists of supporting indicators shows that each variable affects one another. This study generates a financial literacy index serving as a measuring tool in bridging the SDGs of Islamic Finance. It implies the necessity of increasing the understanding of Islamic finance with the concept of literacy for students as an agenda to achieve a demographic bonus.

Women’s Financial Literacy: Perceived Financial Knowledge and Its Impact on Money Management

This paper presents an empirical study on women’s financial literacy in a developing country, Indonesia. Financial literacy in developing countries, especially for women, needs to be improved. Traditionally, women have an important role in managing family finances. Their ability to conduct good financial management can help their family’s financial stability and improve its welfare. If women do not have adequate capacity to manage the family’s finances, the family’s economic health can be at risk. Having financial literacy is important as it provides financial resilience at times of uncertainty. This explanatory research uses a sample comprising 100 women living in the city of Bandung, Indonesia, who are in the Baby Boomer generation as well as in Generations X, Y, and Z. The data were collected through an online questionnaire and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The results provide evidence that perceived financial knowledge has a significant effect on financial management behavior in the dimensions of savings behavior, shopping behavior, long-term planning, and short-term planning. Moreover, the study results show that the respondents have a moderate level of financial literacy and financial management behavior.