scholarly journals The Role of CDS Market in the Price Discovery Process of the “PIIGS” Countries Sovereign Credit Risk During the Recent Decade of Monetary Easing

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Government ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between the credit default swap (CDS) premia and the government bond spreads (GBS), with regard to the sovereign credit risk. The practical focus is to evaluate whether the CDS market effectively is the leading or the lagging market in the credit risk price discovery process during the last decade of monetary easing. The analysis extends to all “sensitive” countries in the Eurozone, the so-called “PIIGS” countries (excluded Greece) for the interval 2007-2017. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spread, Government bond spread, Sovereign credit risk, Cointegration, Vector error correction model, Granger-causality.

scholarly journals The Evolution of the Lead-lag Markets in the Price Discovery Process of the Sovereign Credit Risk: the Case of Italy

2021 ◽  
pp. 151-175
Author(s):  
Michele Anelli ◽  
Michele Patanè ◽  
Mario Toscano ◽  
Alessio Gioia
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Counterparty Risk ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Government ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Abstract Hedging and speculative strategies play a key role in periods of financial market volatility particularly during economic crises. In such contexts, liquidity problems tend to evolve into potential credit risk events that amplifies the volatility of several markets such as the CDS and the government bond markets. The former, however, generally embodies a higher sensitivity to volatility due to the operators’ uncertainty about unstable and countercyclical counterparty risk. The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond yield spreads (GBS), by focusing particularly on sovereign credit risk, in order to evaluate the lead-lag markets in the price discovery process against the backdrop of a deep financial crisis. The focus of this study concerns the country of Italy, one of the major European countries that suffers from both weak GDP growth and high public debt, which subjects it to volatility and speculation during periods of financial stress. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20. Keywords: CDS spreads, Government bond spreads, Credit risk, Cointegration, Vector error correction model, Granger-causality.

scholarly journals THE INTERACTIONS AND TRADE-OFFS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (CDS) AND BOND SPREADS IN A DYNAMIC CONTEXT

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-488
Author(s):  
Ioannis A. Tampakoudis ◽  
Andrius Tamošiūnas ◽  
Demetres N. Subeniotis ◽  
Ioannis G. Kroustalis
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments of the sovereign indebtedness in the euro area. We employ an integrated price discovery methodology on a rolling sample, with the intention to shed light on whether the CDS spreads can trigger rises in bond spreads, and the relative efficiency of credit risk pricing in the CDS and bond markets. In addition, we attempt to depict the evolution of the price discovery process regarding the direction of influence from one market to the other. The rolling window analysis verifies that the price discovery process evolves over time, presenting frequent alternations concerning the leading market. We find that during periods of economic turbulence the CDS market leads the bond market in price discovery, incorporating the new information about sovereign credit risk faster and more efficiently than the bond market does. This regularity should be seriously considered by private and public participants as they make investment and funding decisions. Therefore, the motivation of our paper is to identify the dominant market in terms of price discovery during a period of economic turmoil and, thus, to provide insights for decision making to investment bodies and central governments.

Does CDS Premium Most Predict Sovereign Default Risk?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-530
Author(s):  
Ki Beom Binh ◽  
Seokjin Woo ◽  
Sang Min Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Dollar Spot ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery process between Korean sovereign CDS premium, spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar currency swap rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. With the global financial and fiscal crisis, especially in the U.S. and Euro-zone, the interests in sovereign default risk have risen. Interests in CDS, an OTC credit derivative contract based on debt issuer’s default risk, also have increased. A large number of presses have reported that CDS premium would be the best international market indicator for the default risk taken or transferred. However, internationally the CDS market liquidity has not been sufficient enough to validate its properties. Hence, based on empirics, this paper discusses whether Korean sovereign CDS premium can be considered as an appropriate indicator of sovereign credit risk in the Korean economy. Other largely accepted indices which contain the similar information about Korean economic fundamental and Korean external sovereign credit risk are also analyzed and compared: the spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar Currency Swap Rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. Our findings include: (a) in the price discovery process, Won-Dollar spot rate contributes to the price discovery especially most ‘during the financial crisis period’ and the ‘entire period’ (b) Within the period ‘after the financial crisis’, CDS premium and the other indices have mutual influences on the price discovery process higher than the period ‘before the financial crisis’ (c) while Won-Dollar forward rate shows the similar result with Won-Dollar spot rate, NDF rate and CDS premium make the largest mutual influence on price discovery in the period ‘before the financial crisis.’

The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-325
Author(s):  
Zubair Ali Raja ◽  
William J. Procasky ◽  
Renee Oyotode-Adebile
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk

Extant literature reports mixed findings on the relative efficiency of credit default swaps (CDS) and bond markets in pricing emerging market sovereign credit risk. Using a more comprehensive data set than analyzed earlier, we reexamine this issue and find that CDS dominate bonds in the price discovery of this risk, an advantage we attribute to the greater relative liquidity of that market. One exception is during the financial crisis, suggesting that when panic hits, sovereign markets price credit risk differently. However, even then, the CDS market has a greater impact on price discovery than the bond market, indicating greater overall efficiency. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G13, G14, G23

SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISK, MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, AND FINANCIAL CONTAGION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2096-2120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zongxin Qian ◽  
Wendun Wang ◽  
Kan Ji
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Global Stock Markets

We try to understand the nature of Japan's sovereign credit risk by examining the interaction between Japan's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and its financial indicators of macroeconomic fundamentals. We consider potential contagion from the global financial market and allow for reverse causality between CDS spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals. We find strong evidence of contagion from global stock markets to Japan's credit market when Lehman Brothers collapsed, whereas the European sovereign debt crisis only had temporary effects. We also show that several credit events, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and rating cuts by rating agencies, significantly raised volatility in Japan's sovereign CDS market.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 pandemic and sovereign credit risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Fong Pan ◽  
Xinjie Wang ◽  
Ge Wu ◽  
Weike Xu
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads using a large sample of countries.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors use a wide set of the sovereign CDS data of 78 countries. To measure the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors use the daily change of confirmed cases collected from Our World in Data. They use panel regressions to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign credit risk.FindingsThe authors show how sovereign CDS spreads have widened significantly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the most conservative estimate, a 1% increase in COVID-19 infections leads to a 0.17% increase in sovereign CDS spreads. Furthermore, this effect is stronger for developing countries and countries with worse healthcare systems. Government policies partially offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, although these same policies also lead to widening sovereign CDS spreads. Sovereign CDS spreads narrow dramatically several months after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the results suggest that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a massive shock to the global financial stability.Originality/valueThis paper provides new evidence that COVID-19 widens sovereign CDS spreads. The authors further show that this widening effect is felt most strongly in developing economies.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movement between Japan and ASEAN Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 6-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boonlert Jitmaneeroj ◽  
John Ogwang
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Risks ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
High Possibility

Japan is the most developed economy in Asia. However, it has been on record for being the most heavily indebted country among OECD countries. In many circumstances, the high sovereign debt level indicates a high possibility of sovereign credit risks associated with investment in government bond. The high sovereign credit risk may also generate a number of negative externalities for private businesses operating in the host country. This paper investigates whether sovereign credit risk of Japan as measured by its sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) can better predict and commove with sovereign credit risk of selected ASEAN countries. The bivariate VAR model was used to test for Granger Causalities among these countries SCDS premiums and correlation analysis to investigate co-movements between SCDS of these countries. The results indicate that Japan’s sovereign credit risks do not co-move with those of ASEAN countries, Furthermore, Sovereign credit risks of ASEAN countries tend to lead those of Japan as evidenced by unidirectional causalities from these countries to Japan. The overall suggestion is that sovereign credit risk of Japan is not likely to influence those of ASEAN. The paper concludes with some implications for businesses.

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