E-Commerce and the Factors Affecting Its Development in the Age of Digital Technology: Empirical Evidence at EU–27 Level

The purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing e-commerce and to evaluate the long and short-term impacts on the development of e-commerce activity. After establishing the hypotheses to verify, we use multiple panel regressions to test the influence of education level, consumer’s residence, consumer’s labour market status, internet banking, mobile and non-mobile users on the development of e-commerce. For this matter, in this paper, by adopting the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method and a vector error correction model (VECM), we performed an empirical analysis of the nexus between education level, consumer’s residence, consumer’s labour market status, internet banking and mobile and non-mobile users and e-commerce, based on panel data for EU–27 countries from 2011 to 2020. The results of the study indicate that all the variables involved in the two econometric models and associated with education level, consumer’s residence, labour market status, internet banking, mobile and non-mobile users, all have significant impacts on the development of e-commerce. Most of the variables positively influence the development of e-commerce except for internet purchases by individuals un-employed and for internet purchases by non-mobile users that are negatively correlated with e-commerce activity.

One Road to Riches?

Building effective state institutions before introducing democracy is widely presumed to improve different development outcomes. Conversely, proponents of this “stateness-first” argument anticipate that democratization before state building yields poor development outcomes. In this Element, we discuss several strong assumptions that (different versions of) this argument rests upon and critically evaluate the existing evidence base. In extension, we specify various observable implications. We then subject the stateness-first argument to multiple tests, focusing on economic growth as an outcome. First, we conduct historical case studies of two countries with different institutional sequencing histories, Denmark and Greece, and assess the stateness-first argument (e.g., by using a synthetic control approach). Thereafter, we draw on an extensive global sample of about 180 countries, measured across 1789–2019 and leverage panel regressions, preparametric matching, and sequence analysis to test a number of observable implications. Overall, we find little evidence to support the stateness-first argument.

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic? (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. OBJECTIVE To compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. METHODS We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for observational studies given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. To control for differences in total vaccinations and prior infections during different outbreaks, we estimated dynamic panel regressions to assess whether Omicron has a different trajectory. RESULTS The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly double those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. CONCLUSIONS The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning. CLINICALTRIAL NA

The EVALI outbreak and tobacco sales in the USA, 2014–2020

BackgroundThe E-cigarette, or Vaping Product-Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) Outbreak of 2019 hospitalised thousands and killed dozens of people in the USA and raised perceptions of the dangers posed to health by electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). These illnesses along with continued increases in youth vaping rates lead to the passage of many state and federal laws intended to curtail the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes. Little is known about the impact of these events on US e-cigarette and cigarette retail sales.MethodsUsing Nielsen Scantrack sales data from January 2014 to January 2020 for 23 US states, we evaluate the effect of the EVALI outbreak. First-differenced state-panel regressions tracking unit sales of total-level and category-level e-cigarettes and cigarette sales controlling for price, Tobacco 21 policy coverage, product distribution, seasonality, EVALI-attributable deaths, and state-level e-cigarette policies affecting the availability of e-cigarettes (non-tobacco flavoured and total) were employed.ResultsDollar sales of e-cigarettes declined 29% from their pre-EVALI peak by January 2020. Total sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to EVALI deaths and the total e-cigarette sales ban put in place in Massachusetts adopted in its wake. Cigarette sales were largely unchanged by either the direct or indirect policy effects of the EVALI outbreak, except for in Massachusetts, where cigarette sales—particularly those smoked by young people—rose temporarily after a total ban on e-cigarette sales.ConclusionSales of e-cigarettes declined in response to the EVALI outbreak and from the most restrictive regulatory policies that were adopted in response, while sales of cigarettes were affected less.

The Local Impact on the Concurrent Sentiment-Return Nexus: Asian versus European Markets

We examine the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporaneous returns in sixteen Asian and European stock markets between 2004 and 2016. To identify the sentiment-return nexus, we use the OLS models with Newey-West standard errors as well as the panel regressions with cross-country fixed effects and time dummies. We report the regional outcomes for Asia, Europe, and the individual markets. Our empirical results reveal a significant effect of sentiment on stock returns, although those effects are nonidentical across markets. We find the dissimilarities in the sentiment-return relationship among the sample markets are driven negatively by almost all national factors, with the strongest determinants being the development of financial institutions and the quality of regulation. The impact of cultural dimensions among the sample markets, on the contrary, is relatively weak and mixed. Our research is the first to compare Asian and European outcomes and reveal which region is more vulnerable to the influence of the local components. We detect that, except cultural aspects, European markets are more sensitive to country-specific characteristics than Asian ones. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01318 Full Text: PDF

The Impact of Liberalization on Determinants of Bank Efficiency: Evidence from Malaysian Commercial Banks

This paper aims to examine the impact of liberalization in 2009 on the determinants of bank efficiency in Malaysia by employing a two-stage approach within the context of the growing number of foreign commercial banks. Commercial banks can play a vital role in the internationalization and diversification of Malaysia's financial sector. In the initial stage, measuring the efficiency score of 19 commercial banks throughout 2008 to 2019 by using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Multivariate panel regressions were then used to determine the impact of liberalization on the determinants of bank efficiency in 2009. As a result, domestic commercial banks seem to be more competitive than their foreign counterparts. The findings signify that bank size, market power, capitalization, and liquidity all have a positive impact on technical efficiency. However, credit risk, bank diversification, and inflation all have a negative impact. The control of the effects of liberalization, bank size, capitalization, bank’s market power, and liquidity remain positive. However, bank diversification and inflation flip negative to positive, whereas credit risk becomes less explanatory. The findings will provide bank stakeholders, regulators, investors, and regulators with important insights into the impact of liberalization measures on bank efficiency and its determinants.

The Various Effects of Technology Trade on the Sustainable Market Value of Firms in OECD Countries

This study explores the various effects of technology trade on the sustainable market value of firms in 36 OECD member countries using panel data estimations. To proxy technology trade activities, our study uses the technology export and import growths of intellectual property rights (IPRs). We suggest that technology imports, proxied by IPR imports, increase the market value of firms in our sample countries. The net technology imports (exports) are also positively (negatively) associated with the sustainable value of the firms. We use panel data regression to analyze the specific effects of the trade (i.e., imports and exports) of technology assets, proxied by IPRs, on the market value of firms proxied by country benchmark composite stock returns in 36 OECD member countries. For robustness, our study uses an instrumental variable estimation to check for the possible effects of endogeneity biases for the baseline results. System dynamic panel regressions further examine the effect of the dependent variable’s persistence. We find evidence of nonlinear effects for IPR exports and net IPR trade on the sustainable market value of firms. The positive effect of technology imports on the market value of firms is stronger at the lower and middle levels of the distribution of the firm value of stock returns, and this suggest heterogenous effects of technology trade across the quantiles. Overall, the empirical findings from our panel study suggest that the positive effects of technology trade for the market value of firms are due to the effect of its imports rather than exports.

Population density and the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: comparing the geography of the first and second wave in the Netherlands

The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted public and scholarly debate about the relationship between infectious disease and the urban. Cities are considered contagious because they are hubs in (inter)national networks and contain high densities of people. However, the role of the urban and population density in the spread of pathogens is complex and is mediated by the wider bio-social environment. This paper analsyes the role of population density in the outbreak of COVID-19 in the densely and highly urbanized context of the Netherlands. It compares the geography of the different phases in the epidemic and assesses when and where density plays a role. Using municipal data on the rate of infections and hospitalizations this paper reveals that spatial patterns differ substantially in time, which does not appear to be simple diffusion. Using panel regressions it is demonstrated that population density plays a role in those stages in which containment and mitigation measures were least strict, while in periods of lock down other factors such as household size are associated with higher infection rates. It concludes that lock downs may have greater effect in urban areas as key elements of urbanity are temporarily cancelled out.

Investors’ Delight? Climate Risk in Stock Valuation during COVID-19 and Beyond

We use the COVID-19 pandemic period in 2020 as an exogenous shock event to assess in how far climate risks measured by carbon exposure have entered and established themselves in the valuation of global stocks. In addition to descriptive analyses, we conduct cross-sectional panel regressions to assess the influence of carbon intensity levels on return and risk characteristics during and after the shock period. Furthermore, a difference-in-differences model setup allows us to infer whether these influences were significantly different when comparing pre-shock, shock, and post-shock periods. We find that carbon intensity affected returns significantly and negatively during a time of high uncertainty. In fact, high-emitting stocks suffered significantly more compared to the pre-crisis period. However, they could make up for their additional losses in the recovery period. In line with their high-risk exposure towards stranded assets and climate policy uncertainty, carbon-intensive stocks face higher risk levels in more stable economic times, thus justifying a carbon premium.

Structural change and economic growth in India: a comparative study of Punjab

Purpose The Green Revolution transformed agriculture in the Indian State of Punjab, with positive spillovers to the rest of India, but recently the state’s economy has fallen dramatically in rankings of per capita state output. Understanding the trajectory of Punjab’s economy has important lessons for all of India. Economic development is typically associated with changes in economic structure, but Punjab has remained relatively reliant on agriculture rather than shifting economic activity to manufacturing and services, where productivity growth might be greater. Design/methodology/approach The authors empirically examine structural change in the Punjab economy in the context of structural change and economic growth across the States of India. The authors calculate structural change indices and map their pattern over time. The authors estimate panel regressions and time-varying parameter regressions, as well as performing productivity change decompositions into within-sector and structural changes. Findings Panel regressions and time-varying-coefficient regressions suggest a significant positive influence of structural change on state-level growth. In addition, growth positively affected structural change across India’s states. The relative lack of structural change in Punjab’s economy is implicated in its relatively poor recent growth performance. Comparisons with a handful of other states reinforce this conclusion: Punjab’s lack of economic diversification is a plausible explanation for its lagging economic performance. Originality/value This paper performs a novel empirical analysis of structural change and growth, simultaneously using three different approaches: panel regressions, time-varying parameter regressions and productivity decompositions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the only paper we are aware of that combines these three approaches.