Causal effects of corporate taxes on private firms' earnings management: a regression discontinuity analysis

PurposeThe authors emphasize the information role of earnings management and how it may be used to “mislead some stakeholders about the underlying economic performance of the company or to influence contractual outcomes that depend on reported accounting numbers.” Specifically, the authors examine the causal effect of tax incentives on private firms' earnings management based on a corporate tax reform in China.Design/methodology/approachIn December 2001, China implemented a tax collection reform which moved the collection of corporate income taxes from the local tax bureau to the state tax bureau. This reform results in exogenous variations in the effective tax rate among similar firms established before and after 2002. The authors apply a regression discontinuity design and use the generated variation in the effective tax rate to investigate the impact of taxes on firm earnings management.FindingsThe authors find that tax reduction substantially increases private firms' incentives to manage earnings information, and such effect is particularly pronounced when tax collection intensity and government interventions are low. Further evidence shows that lower tax rates stimulate firms' investment, inventory turnover and recruitment of skilled human capital. A plausible mechanism is that private firms signal a promising outlook by managing earnings to attain greater financing and improve investment/operation levels when financial constraints are removed.Originality/valueFirst, the authors present the causal effects of tax incentives on private firm's earnings management, which deepens the authors’ understanding on the determinants of firm's earnings information production. Second, this study also contributes to the literature on tax-induced earnings management. Third, the authors believe that this topic offers clear policy implications and would be of particular interest to regulators.

Cryptocurrencies and portfolio diversification in an emerging market

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of cryptocurrencies on the portfolio risk-adjusted returns of traditional and alternative investments within an emerging market economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs daily arithmetic returns from August 2015 to October 2018 of traditional assets (stocks, bonds, currencies), alternative assets (commodities, real estate) and cryptocurrencies. Using the mean-variance analysis, the Sharpe ratio, the conditional value-at-risk and the mean-variance spanning tests.FindingsThe paper documents evidence to support the diversification benefits of cryptocurrencies by utilising the mean-variance tests, improving the efficient frontier and the risk-adjusted returns of the emerging market economy portfolio of investments.Practical implicationsThis paper firmly broadens the Modern Portfolio Theory by authenticating cryptocurrencies as assets with diversification benefits in an emerging market economy investment portfolio.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are concerned, this paper presents the first evidence of the effect of diversification benefits of cryptocurrencies on emerging market asset portfolios constructed using traditional and alternative assets.

Social interactions and mutual fund portfolios: the role of alumni networks in China

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the influence of social interactions on mutual fund portfolios from the perspective of alumni network in China.Design/methodology/approachBased on a data set that consists of 162 actively managed equity funds in China during the time period of 2003–2014, this study employs multiple linear regression model to control for organization- and location-based interpersonal connections as well as other confounding factors and clarify the causality relationship between alumni networks of mutual fund managers and their portfolios.FindingsAfter controlling for organization- and location-based interpersonal connections, we find that mutual fund managers who graduated from the same college/university have more similar stock holdings and are more likely to buy or sell the same stocks contemporaneously. As a result, alumni managers exhibit a higher correlation of fund returns. Moreover, the effect of alumni relationship on mutual fund investments becomes weaker when more managers are connected within the network. We also find that valuable information is shared among alumni managers: (1) the average returns for the alumni common holdings portfolios is significantly higher than those for non-alumni holdings portfolios and (2) a long-short strategy composed of stocks purchased minus sold by alumni managers yields positive and significant risk-adjusted returns.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that information dissemination among connected fund managers could be one of the driving forces for mutual fund herding behavior, and that a portfolio of funds whose managers are educationally connected could be highly exposed to certain stocks and risks.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the growing finance literature addressing the influence of personal connections on information dissemination that specifically contributes to price formation. It corresponds more closely to Cohen et al. (2008), who investigate college alumni connections between fund managers and corporate board members. Since the authors simultaneously examine three potentially overlapped social networks, which are based on education, locality and fund family, the authors are able to disentangle their effects on fund managers' investment decisions. Moreover, the findings suggest that institutional investors make investment decisions based on share private information, and therefore, it also contributes to the literature on fund herding behaviors (Grinblatt et al., 1995; Wermers, 1999).

The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis

PurposeWhile the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.FindingsThe authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Investigating the determining factors of sustainable FDI in Vietnam

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to analyze the sustainable inward FDI pattern of Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThis paper intends to analyze the sustainable FDI pattern of Vietnam using the gravity theory and panel data approach for the annual data over the period of 2007–2020.FindingsVietnamese FDI volume is positively affected by political and social factors, globalization and green energy consumption, while geographical distance is a major obstacle to the increase of FDI inflows of the country.Practical implicationsAs the main practical policy implications, issuing policies for sustainable economic growth, launching the novel strategy of green FDI neighborhood policy and regionalism through free trade agreements are recommended.Originality/valueTo the best of author's knowledge, there has not been any in-depth academic study focusing on the Vietnam's sustainable FDI. In addition, three robustness checks have been conducted to ensure the validation of empirical findings.

Corporate bond spreads and understated pension liabilities

PurposeThe question is whether debt market investors see through managers' attempts to hide their pension obligations. The authors establish a robust relation between understated pension liabilities and corporate bond yield spreads after controlling for factors that have been previously identified as having a significant impact on firms' cost of borrowing. The results support the idea that bond market investors are not being misled by the use of high pension liability discount rates by some companies to lower their reported pension obligations. For a small fraction of debt issuers, the reported pension liabilities are larger than the pension liabilities valued at the stipulated interest rate benchmarks. For these issuers with overstated pension liabilities, bond investors adjust their borrowing costs downward.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate the relation between corporate bond yield spreads and understated pension liabilities relative to long-term Treasury and high-grade corporate bond yields. They aim to answer two questions. First, what are the sizes of over or understated pension liabilities relative to guideline benchmarks? Second, do debt market investors see through the potential management manipulation of pension discount rates? The authors find that firms with large understated pension liabilities face higher marginal borrowing costs after taking into account issue-specific features, firm characteristics, macroeconomic conditions and other pension information such as funded status and mandatory contributions.FindingsThe average understated projected benefit obligations (PBOs) are understated by $394.3 and $335.6, equivalent to 3.5 and 3.0% of the beginning of the fiscal year market value, respectively. The average understated accumulated benefit obligations (ABOs) are understated by $359.3 and $305.3 million, equivalent to 3.1 and 2.6%, of the beginning of the fiscal year market value, respectively. Relative to AA-grade corporate bond yields, the average difference between firm pension discount rates and benchmark yields becomes much smaller; the percentage of firm pension discount rates higher than benchmark yields is also much smaller. As a result, understated pension liabilities become negligible. The authors establish a robust relation between corporate bond yield spreads and measures of understated pension liabilities after controlling for issue-specific features, firm characteristics, other pension information (funded status and mandatory contributions), macroeconomic conditions, calendar effects and industry effects.Originality/valueS&P Rating Services recognizes the issue that there is considerably more variability in discount rate assumptions among companies than in workforce demographics or the interest rate environment in which firms operate (Standard and Poor's, 2006). S&P also indicates that it would be desirable to normalize different discount rate assumptions but acknowledges that it is difficult to do so. In practice, S&P Rating Services conducts periodic surveys to see whether firms' assumed discount rates conform to the normal standard. The paper makes an initial attempt to quantify the size of understated pension liabilities and their impact on corporate bond yield spreads. This approach can be extended to study firms' costs of equity capital, the pricing of seasoned equity offerings and the pricing of merger and acquisition transaction deals, among other questions.

The dynamic interaction between investor attention and green security market: an empirical study based on Baidu index

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the interaction between investor attention and green security markets, including green bonds and stocks.Design/methodology/approachThis study takes the Baidu index of “green finance” as the proxy for investor attention and constructs several generalized prediction error variance decomposition models to investigate the interdependence. It further analyzes the dynamic interaction between investor attention and the return and volatility of green security markets using the rolling time window.FindingsThe empirical analysis and robustness test results reveal that the spillovers between investor attention and the return and volatility of the green bond market are relatively stable. In contrast, the spillover level between investor attention and the green stock market displays significant time-varying and asymmetric effects. Moreover, the volatility spillover between investor attention and green securities is vulnerable to major financial events, while the return spillover is extremely sensitive to market performance.Originality/valueThe conclusion further expands the practical application and theoretical framework of behavioral finance in green finance and provides a new reference for investors and regulators. Besides, this study also lays a theoretical basis for investors to focus on the practical application of volatility prediction and risk management in green securities.

Financial statement analysis: a review and current issues

PurposeThe literature on financial statement analysis attempts to improve fundamental analysis and to identify market inefficiencies with respect to financial statement information.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the author reviews the extant research on financial statement analysis.FindingsThe author then provides some preliminary evidence using Chinese data and offer suggestions for future research, with a focus on utilising unique features of the Chinese business environment as motivation.Originality/valueThe author notes that there has been no work that the author could locate specifically on Chinese FSA research. The unique business environment in China, relative to the US where the vast majority of this work has been conducted, should motivate any studies, especially given the author documents the robust finding in terms of the mean reversion in profitability.

Cryptocurrency as a safe haven for investment portfolios amid COVID-19 panic cases of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin

PurposeThis article examines the susceptibility of cryptocurrencies to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced panic in comparison with major stock indices.Design/methodology/approachThe author employs the Bayesian structural vector autoregression to examine the phenomenon in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin from 2nd January 2020 to 30th June 2021. A similar analysis is conducted for major stock indices, namely S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite for comparison purposes.FindingsThe results suggest that cryptocurrencies returns suffered immensely in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak following declarations of the disease as a global health emergency and eventually a pandemic in March 2020. However, the returns for all three cryptocurrencies recovered by April 2020 and remained resistant to further COVID-19 panic shocks. The results are dissimilar to those of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite values which were vulnerable to COVID-19 panic throughout the timeframe to June 2021. The results further reveal strong predictive power of Bitcoin on prices of other cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe article provides evidence to support the cryptocurrency as a safe haven during COVID-19 school of thought given their resistance to subsequent shocks during COVID-19. Thus, the author stresses the need for diversification of investment portfolios by including cryptocurrencies given their uniqueness and resistance to shocks during crises.Originality/valueThe author makes use of the novel corona virus panic index to examine the magnitude of shocks in prices of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19.

Energy financing in COVID-19: how public supports can benefit?

PurposeThe study aims to empirically estimate the role of public supports for energy efficiency financing and presents the way forward to mitigate the energy financing barriers that incurred during the COVID-19 crisis.Design/methodology/approachUsing the G7 countries data, the study estimated the nexus between the constructs. Generalized method of moments (GMM) and conventional increasing-smoothing asymptotic of GMM are applied to justify the study findings. Wald econometric technique is also used to robust the results.FindingsThe study findings reported a consistent role of public support on energy efficiency financing indicators, during the COVID-19 crisis period. G7 countries raised funds around 17% through public supports for energy efficiency financing, and it raised 4% of per unit energy usage to GDP, accelerated 16% energy efficiency and 24% output of renewable energy sources, during COVID-19. By this, study findings warrant a maximum support from public offices, energy ministries and other allied departments for energy efficiency optimization.Practical implicationsThe study presents multiple policy implications to enhance energy efficiency through different alternative sources, such as, on-bill financing, direct energy efficiency grant, guaranteed financial contracts for energy efficiency and energy efficiency credit lines. If suggested policy recommendations are applied effectively, this holds the potential to diminish the influence of the COVID-19 crisis and can probably uplift the energy efficiency financing during structural crisis.Originality/valueThe originality of the recent study exists in a novel framework of study topicality. Despite growing literature, the empirical discussion in the field of energy efficiency financing and COVID-19 is still shattered and less studied, which is contributed by this study.