scholarly journals Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars

2008 ◽  
Vol 08 (53) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pär Österholm ◽  
Helge Berger ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Bayesian Vars

Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area

2007 ◽  
pp. 10-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche ◽  
Stefan Gerlach
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Money Growth

Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Scharnagl ◽  
Christina Gerberding ◽  
Franz Seitz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Money Growth

Does Money Include Information for Prices in the Euro Area? / Enthält Geld Informationen für die Preisentwicklung im Eurowährungsgebiet?

2003 ◽  
Vol 223 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Eggert Reimers
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Equilibrium Price ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Sample Analysis ◽  
The Future ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Divisia Aggregates

Summary In this paper, the P-star framework is mainly used to examine the importance of money for future price movements in the euro area. Constructing the equilibrium price level, simple-sum M3 and different Divisia M3 aggregates are considered. In addition, nominal money changes are investigated in inflation equations. Adapting an in-sample analysis, Divisia aggregates are important for HICP development and to some extent for GDP deflator movement. The out-of-sample forecasting exercise presents evidence that simple-sum M3 includes more information for the HICP, whereas one of the Divisia aggregates helps to predict the future GDP deflator.

scholarly journals Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Dynamics in the Euro Area – The Role of Sentiment Indicators

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Gajewski
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fixed Length ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Cross Correlations

The paper compares the most closely watched sentiment indicators with respect to their ability to nowcast quarterly GDP dynamics in the Euro Area and its biggest economies. We analyse cross-correlations and out-of-sample forecast errors generated from equations estimated by rolling regressions in fixed-length window. The results show that models employing PMI Composite perform best in the cases of the Euro Area, Germany, France and Italy, whilst Spanish GDP dynamics is best nowcasted using ESI-based models. PMI-based models generate the most accurate nowcasts at the beginning of the quarter, as well as during periods of high volatility of GDP growth rates.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document