scholarly journals The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period

2003 ◽  
Vol 03 (208) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Nagayasu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Rate Period

Monetary policy surprises and jumps in interest rates: evidence from Brazil

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 893-907
Author(s):  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
André A.P. Santos ◽  
Douglas E. Turatti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Jump Model ◽  
Asset Values

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider a monetary-jump model to measure the contribution of jumps to the total volatility of interest rates in the Brazilian interbank market and to assess the extent to which the central bank’s unanticipated monetary policy decisions are driving these jumps. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a sample of swap rates contracts with different maturities to estimate a mixture GARCH-jump model that disentangles two components of interest rate volatility: a GARCH-type specification that models conditional heteroskedasticity to account for the volatility during “normal” times and a Poisson process that models the occurrence of abrupt changes in interest rates. Findings – The contribution of jumps to the total volatility is substantial, and monetary policy decisions partly explain the occurrence of those jumps. In particular, the authors find that the likelihood of a jump occurring during a meeting day of the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) is higher in comparison to that of a non-meeting day. Research limitations/implications – The occurrence of jumps in the term structure of interest rates raises the question of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy through the asset price channel as well as the relation between jumps and economic fundamentals. Practical implications – Communication between the central bank and the market will affect expectations and asset values. If the central bank’s decisions generate fewer jumps, then the variance of the interest rate-linked asset values will also be reduced. Originality/value – The paper employs a new approach to assess monetary policy surprises to a set of Brazilian interest rate data and relates the occurrence of jumps to the macroeconomic environment.

Monetary policy and market interest rates: literature review using text analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Fedorova ◽  
Elena Meshkova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Text Analysis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates. This paper examines the efficiency of interest rate channel used in monetary regulation as well as implementation of monetary policy under low interest rates. This paper examines and reviews the scientific literature published over the past 30 years to determine primary research areas, to summarize their results and to identify appropriate measures of monetary policy to be used in practice in changing economic environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews 94 studies focused on the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates in terms of meeting the goals of macroeconomic regulation. The articles are selected on the basis of Scopus citation and bibliometric analysis. A major feature of this paper is the use of text analysis (data preparation, frequency of terms and collocations use, examination of relationships between terms, use of principal component analysis to determine research thematic areas). Using the method of principal component analysis while studying abstracts this paper reveals thematic areas of the research. Thus, the conducted text analysis provides unbiased results. Findings First, this paper examines the whole complex of relationships between monetary policy of central banks and market interest rates. Second, this research reviews a wide range of literature including recent studies focused on specific features of monetary policy under low and negative rates. Third, this study identifies and summarizes the thematic areas of all the researches using text analysis (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability). Finally, this paper presents the most important findings of the studied articles related to the current situation and trends on the financial market as well as further research opportunities. This paper finds the principal results of studies on significant issues of monetary policy in terms of its efficiency under low interest rates, influence of its instruments on term structure of interest rates and role of banking sector in implementation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the review is examining articles for the study period of 30 years. Practical implications Central banks of emerging economies should apply the instruments and results of the countries' monetary policies reviewed in this paper. Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows presenting the main ideas related to current economic situation. Social implications The findings are of great value for adjusting the monetary policy of central banks. Also, these are important for people because these show the significant role of monetary policy for the economic growth. Originality/value Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability) and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows defining the current ideas relevant to the monetary policy of developing countries. It is important for central banks because it examines the monetary policy problems and proposes optimal solutions.

scholarly journals The impact of the Federal Reserve System’s interest rate channel on the components of aggregate demand

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-496
Author(s):  
Dominika Brózda-Wilamek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Motivation: Monetary policy decisions, through the process of transmission mechanism, affect the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand (e.g. consumer spending and business investments) and price levels through these effects. The aspect of monetary transmission to various components of aggregate demand has been relatively little studied in the literature of the subject. Aim: The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effect of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. To this aim, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined. Results: The empirical findings showed that that between 1984 and 2019, the sensitivity of consumption and investment expenditures to interest rate impulses were different. Firstly, fixed investment spending accounted for a significant part that was responsible for the response of real GDP following an interest rate shock. Secondly, in the case of personal consumption expenditures, expenses for durable goods were more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest rate than spending on services and nondurable goods. In this way, the study expands the existing literature by reporting the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Central Bank Liquidity Management and the Signal Extraction Problem on the Money Market / Die Liquiditätssteuerung der Notenbank und das Signal-extraktionsproblem am Geldmarkt

2000 ◽  
Vol 220 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-301
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Signal Extraction ◽  
Maintenance Period ◽  
Liquidity Management ◽  
Expectation Theory

Summary Understanding the factors determining overnight rates is crucial both for central bankers and private market participants, since, assuming the validity of the expectation theory of the term structure of interest rates, expectations with regard to this “monadic” maturity should determine longer term rates, which are deemed to be relevant for the transmission of monetary policy. The note proposes a simple model of the money market within a two-day long reserve maintenance period to derive relationships between the relevant quantities, expectations concerning these quantities for the rest of the reserve maintenance period, and overnight rates. It is argued that a signal extraction problem faced by banks when observing quantities such as their aggregate reserve holdings and allotment amounts of monetary policy operations is at the core of these relationships. The usefulness of the model is illustrated by applying it to the analysis of three alternative liquidity management strategies of a central bank.

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