Optimized signal deduction procedure for the MIEZE spectroscopy technique

A method is reported to determine the phase and amplitude of sinusoidally modulated event rates, binned into four bins per oscillation, based on data generated at the resonant neutron spin-echo spectrometer RESEDA at FRM-II. The presented algorithm relies on a reconstruction of the unknown parameters. It omits a calculation-intensive fitting procedure and avoids contrast reduction due to averaging effects. It allows the current data acquisition bottleneck at RESEDA to be relaxed by a factor of four and thus increases the potential time resolution of the detector by the same factor. The approach is explained in detail and compared with the established fitting procedures of time series having four and 16 time bins per oscillation. In addition the empirical estimates of the errors of the three methods are presented and compared with each other. The reconstruction is shown to be unbiased, asymptotic and efficient for estimating the phase. Reconstructing the contrast increases the error bars by roughly 10% as compared with fitting 16 time-binned oscillations. Finally, the paper gives heuristic, analytical equations to estimate the error for phase and contrast as a function of their initial values and counting statistics.

Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size

Social gatherings can be an important locus of transmission for many pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. During an outbreak, restricting the size of these gatherings is one of several non-pharmaceutical interventions available to policy-makers to reduce transmission. Often these restrictions take the form of prohibitions on gatherings above a certain size. While it is generally agreed that such restrictions reduce contacts, the specific size threshold separating "allowed" from "prohibited" gatherings often does not have a clear scientific basis, which leads to dramatic differences in guidance across location and time. Building on the observation that gathering size distributions are often heavy-tailed, we develop a theoretical model of transmission during gatherings and their contribution to general disease dynamics. We find that a key, but often overlooked, determinant of the optimal threshold is the distribution of gathering sizes. Using data on pre-pandemic contact patterns from several sources as well as empirical estimates of transmission parameters for SARS-CoV-2, we apply our model to better understand relationship between restriction threshold and reduction in cases. We find that, under reasonable transmission parameter ranges, restrictions may have to be set quite low to have any demonstrable effect on cases due to relative frequency of smaller gatherings. We compare our conceptual model with observed changes in reported contacts during lockdown in March of 2020.

A Stringent Test of Magnetic Models of Stellar Evolution

Main-sequence stars with convective envelopes often appear larger and cooler than predicted by standard models of stellar evolution for their measured masses. This is believed to be caused by stellar activity. In a recent study, accurate measurements were published for the K-type components of the 1.62-day detached eclipsing binary EPIC 219511354, showing the radii and temperatures for both stars to be affected by these discrepancies. This is a rare example of a system in which the age and chemical composition are known, by virtue of being a member of the well-studied open cluster Ruprecht 147 (age~3 Gyr, [Fe/H] = +0.10). Here, we report a detailed study of this system with nonstandard models incorporating magnetic inhibition of convection. We show that these calculations are able to reproduce the observations largely within their uncertainties, providing robust estimates of the strength of the magnetic fields on both stars: 1600 ± 130 G and 1830 ± 150 G for the primary and secondary, respectively. Empirical estimates of the magnetic field strengths based on the measured X-ray luminosity of the system are roughly consistent with these predictions, supporting this mechanism as a possible explanation for the radius and temperature discrepancies.

Primary productivity in subsidized green-brown food webs

Ecosystems worldwide receive large amounts of nutrients from both natural processes and human activities. While direct subsidy effects on primary productivity are relatively well known (the green food web), the indirect effects of subsidies on producers as mediated by the brown food web and predators have been neglected. With a dynamical green-brown food web model, parameterized using empirical estimates from the literature, we illustrate the effect of nutrient subsidies on net primary productivity (i.e., after removing loss to herbivory) in two generic ecosystems, terrestrial and aquatic. We find that nutrient subsidies increase net primary productivity because more nutrients are available, but this effect saturates with higher subsidies. Changing the quality of subsidies from inorganic to organic tends to increase net primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems, but less often so in aquatic ecosystems. This occurs when organic nutrient inputs promote detritivores in the brown food web, and hence predators that in turn control herbivores, thus promoting primary productivity. This previously largely overlooked effect is further enhanced by ecosystem properties such as fast decomposition and low rates of nutrient additions, and demonstrates the importance of nutrient subsidy quality on ecosystem functioning.

Do Imports Increase Unemployment? Empirical Estimates That Are Not Model Dependent

Some Ricardian models would predict a fall in unemployment with trade liberalization. In contrast, the Heckscher-Ohlin model (Stolper Samuelson Theorem) would predict trade liberalization would cause a fall in wages for labor scarce countries, resulting in greater unemployment if there are wage rigidities. The choice of which theoretical model is used affects the empirical results obtained. This paper produces estimates of the change in unemployment due to a change in imports that are not model dependent. The estimates produced are total derivatives that capture all the ways that imports and unemployment are correlated. I find that unemployment increases with increased imports for Austria, Greece, Japan, Portugal, South Korea, Slovenia, and Sweden, but that unemployment decreases with increased imports for Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, the UK, and the US.

Methodological approach to assessing the quality of strategic planning activities

Subject. The article addresses a methodological approach to determining the feasibility of including an event that ensures the achievement of strategic targets in the implementation plan of a strategic planning document (i.e., a national project or a government program). Objectives. The purpose is to develop a methodological approach to create a balanced list of measures, which, if implemented, will have a positive effect on achieving strategic guidelines for sustainable socio-economic development and strengthening the economic security. Methods. The study rests on expert estimates for calculating the index of activities quality. The calculation of the index is based on the assessment of the index of incoming resources, the index of process, the index of outcome. The approach enables to consider elements associated with the initiation of a particular event, its successful implementation, and achievement of a specific outcome. Results. The study creates an approach to defining the degree of elaboration of the event and the feasibility of including it in the implementation plan of the strategic planning document. The method of expert estimates enables to neutralize some uncertainties and costs caused by initial data quality, empirical estimates of the degree of obtained results’ accuracy, and allocated resources. Conclusions. The working out of organizational, legal, and regulatory measures is only one element of strategizing. Further research should develop methodological approaches to the definition of targeted and critical values of the strategy system to implement a high-quality and operational monitoring.

Banking industry stability and investment dynamics

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate how strands of differing investments influence stability in the banking industry using data from 37 countries in Sub-Sahara Africa from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses in the study were carried out using a two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation methodology. Findings Empirical results suggest that generally, growth in investments by governments, foreign investments and private domestic investments have a significant positive impact in stabilizing the banking industry. The empirical estimates further suggest that macroeconomic conditions such as macroeconomic uncertainty adversely affects the liquid reserve position of banks even during periods of appreciable growth in investments. Originality/value The authors present a different approach to the banking industry discourse. Instead of surmise the relationship with the direction of impact often emanating from the banking industry to other variables of interest or conditions, this study rather examines how investment dynamics among economies influence the stability of the banking industry overtime. In contrast to related studies, this study examines how strands of investment variables influence the stability of the banking industry. Specifically, this study is modeled to examine the extent to which variability in investment growth (using different investment variables) affect stability in the banking industry.

Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain

Young workers in Spain face the unprecedented impact of the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis in short sequence. Moreover, they have also experienced a deterioration in their employment and earnings over the last three decades. In this paper, we document this evolution and adopt a longitudinal approach to show that employment and earnings losses suffered by young workers during recessions are not made up in the subsequent expansions. We also estimate the size of the scarring effects of entering the job market in a recession for college-educated workers during their first decade in the labor market. Our empirical estimates indicate that while there is some evidence of scarring effects, the driving force is a trend worsening of youth labor market outcomes.

PHEV! The PHysically-based Extreme Value distribution of river flows

Magnitude and frequency are prominent features of river floods informing design of engineering structures, insurance premiums and adaptation strategies. Recent advances yielding a formal characterization of these variables from a joint description of soil moisture and daily runoff dynamics in river basins are here systematized to highlight their chief outcome: the PHysically-based Extreme Value (PHEV) distribution of river flows. This is a physically-based alternative to empirical estimates and purely statistical methods hitherto used to characterize extremes of hydro-meteorological variables. Capabilities of PHEV for predicting flood magnitude and frequency are benchmarked against a standard distribution and the latest statistical approach for extreme estimation, by using both an extensive observational dataset and long synthetic series of streamflow generated for river basins from contrasting hydro-climatic regions. The analyses outline the domain of applicability of PHEV and reveal its fairly unbiased capabilities to estimate flood magnitudes with return periods much longer than the sample size used for calibration in a wide range of case studies. The results also emphasize reduced prediction uncertainty of PHEV for rare floods, notably if the flood magnitude-frequency curve displays an inflection point. These features, arising from the mechanistic understanding embedded in the novel distribution of the largest river flows, are key for a reliable assessment of the actual flooding hazard associated to poorly sampled rare events, especially when lacking long observational records.

Analysing Association in Environmental Pollution, Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States

Clean and green environment along with sustainable development is the prime objective of every state. We explore empirically the nexus between tourism, environmental pollution measured by carbon (CO2) emissions, population, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in six countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States over 1995–2018. Traditional panel estimation technique is employed, where the Hausman test suggests fixed-effects over random effect estimator. We also employed the robust least squares (RLS) estimator to confirm the empirical estimates. Results show that a 1% increase in CO2 will attenuate the economic growth by 0.14% and that 1% raise in the tourism activities can boost growth by 0.04%. Both the fixed-effect and RLS estimates reveal that tourism, population growth and trade contribute significantly to economic growth, whereas CO2 adversely affect growth. The Granger causality test shows a two-way causality between economic growth and CO2 and between growth and trade. Empirical results also indicate a one-way causality between growth and FDI, population and FDI, population and CO2 along with population growth and tourism. These findings suggest that adopting effective policies that can expand trade, enhance FDI and promote the tourism sector with minimum environmental damage will ultimately accelerate sustainable economic development.