scholarly journals The impact of the Federal Reserve System’s interest rate channel on the components of aggregate demand

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-496
Author(s):  
Dominika Brózda-Wilamek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Motivation: Monetary policy decisions, through the process of transmission mechanism, affect the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand (e.g. consumer spending and business investments) and price levels through these effects. The aspect of monetary transmission to various components of aggregate demand has been relatively little studied in the literature of the subject. Aim: The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effect of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. To this aim, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined. Results: The empirical findings showed that that between 1984 and 2019, the sensitivity of consumption and investment expenditures to interest rate impulses were different. Firstly, fixed investment spending accounted for a significant part that was responsible for the response of real GDP following an interest rate shock. Secondly, in the case of personal consumption expenditures, expenses for durable goods were more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest rate than spending on services and nondurable goods. In this way, the study expands the existing literature by reporting the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

scholarly journals COMPARISON OF THE PASS-THROUGH SPEED MODELS OF DIFFERENT MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE MARKETS OF MAINLAND CHINA AND TAIWAN

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Ming Ho ◽  
Wu Yih Lin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Loan Interest Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper adopted the Boone Indicator, developed by Boone et al. (2008) and Van Leuvensteijn et al. (2011; 2013), to investigate the influence of different pass-through spread models in the competition among banks in emerging markets. With the market share of banks as a dependent variable and marginal cost as an independent variable, this paper probed into the competition among banks regarding the loan market to determine whether competition on the loan interest rates of banks affected the pass-through of monetary policy-related interest rates. After analyzing approximately 5,657 entries of records of the banking industries in Taiwan and mainland China, this paper reached three significant conclusions: 1) the Boone Indicator Model pointed out that, competition in the banking market of mainland China was more intense than that of Taiwan; 2) empirical research based on the Interest Rate Spread Model indicated that the spread of mainland China was lower than that of Taiwan; 3) the Passthrough Speed Model implied that, the interest rate sensitivity of the market of mainland China was higher than that of the Taiwan market. The above results indicate that the influence of monetary policy pass-through on the interest rate of the market in mainland China is faster than in Taiwan.  

scholarly journals The Effects of Money Supply and Interest Rates on Stock Prices, Evidence from Two Behavioral Experiments

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Christian A. Conrad
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Behavioral Experiments ◽  
The Impact

What is the impact of interest rate and monetary policy on the stock market? Some studies find a positive impact of expansive monetary policy on stock prices others prove the opposite. This paper examines the effects of monetary expansion and interest rate changes on investment behavior on the stock market by illustrating two behavioral experiments with students. In our experiments the increase of money supply and the decrease of interest rates had a direct positive impact on share prices. These findings support the hypothesis that extreme expansive monetary policy with low, zero or negative interest rates encourage financial bubbles on the stock market. To avoid a crash the exit from such a policy must be slow. As happened in 1929, crashes can damage the financial system and the real economy. Central banks must take this into account in their monetary policy.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (3) ◽  
pp. 721-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
The Impact

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. The optimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper's main findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the case for “leaning against the wind” monetary policies. (JEL E13, E32, E44, E52, G12)

scholarly journals Empirical Evidence of Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-Through in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 79-93
Author(s):  
BẢO NGUYỄN KHẮC QUỐC ◽  
NHỰT NGUYỄN HỮU HUY
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Pass Through

This paper seeks evidence and explanatory factors of asymmetric relationship in interest rate pass-through in Vietnam. The results show that the capital and liquidity requirements of commercial banks are main causes of asymmetric interest rate pass-through in Vietnam. The research based on data from six commercial banks in Vietnam during the period 2009 ? 2012 shows that (i) Loan rates from capital constrained banks are higher than those from unconstrained banks; (ii) Pass-through from monetary policy rate to loan rates is not clear in both constrained and unconstrained banks; and (iii) Loan rates from capital constrained banks are more sensitive to changes in aggregate demand.

scholarly journals Analisis Penerapan Kebijakan Moneter Suku Bunga Jangka Pendek pada Variabel-variabel Endogen MakroEkonomi Indonesia

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 638
Author(s):  
Sari Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of monetary policy through short-term interest rates setting on the variation that occurs in the endogenous variables of Indonesian macro economy in the period of 2000-2009 by implementing the Structural Vector Autoregressive approach (SVAR) which is the development of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modelling with Eviews program. By careful examination of the results, this study indicates that the value of interest rate changes is significantly associated with shocks that are associated with monetary policy. The monetary sector is heavily influenced by real GDP shock, liquidity, and inflation shock. However, the monetary sector is only slightly affected by the decomposition of the variance of the exchange rate, which is very sensitive to the inflation shock. The study also indicates that the endogenous variables in the value of changes in interest rates and real exchange rate of rupiah will be close to convergence in the long term. The endogenous variables are more susceptible to changes in variables derived from domestic, such as the level of demand for domestic currency liquidity, compared to variables derived from international capital exposure. Thus, the value of the variable interest rate changes can be used to reduce the potential risks derived from domestic money demand shock.

Monetary Policy Pass-through, Ownership and Crisis: How Robust is the Indian Evidence?

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-483
Author(s):  
Jugnu Ansari ◽  
Saibal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Loan Pricing ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Employing disaggregated data for 2001–2016, this study investigates the lending and loan pricing behaviour of state-owned and domestic private banks in response to monetary policy. Three major findings emerge. First, although both the interest rate and the bank lending channels are relevant for monetary pass-through, there is a trade-off: the impact of the former is much higher than the latter, although it occurs with a significant lag. Second, domestic private banks have a far greater response to a monetary policy shock under the interest rate channel, whereas state-owned banks display a greater response under the bank-lending channel. And finally, state-owned banks cut back lending during periods of crises, although no such response is manifest in domestic private banks. JEL Codes: C23, D4, E43, E52, G21, L10

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