Continuous-Time Insider Trading with Risk-Neutral Insider under Imperfect Observation

A model of insider trading in continuous time in which a risk-neutral insider possesses long-lived imperfect information on a risk asset is studied. By conditional expectation theory and filtering theory, we turn it into a model with insider knowing complete information about the asset with a revised risky value and deduce its linear Bayesian equilibrium consisting of optimal insider trading strategy and semistrong pricing rule. It shows that, in the equilibrium, as the degree of insider observing the signal of the risky asset value is more and more accurate, market depth, trading intensity, and residual information are all decreasing and the total expectation profit of the insider is increasing and that the information about the asset value incorporated into the equilibrium price, which has nothing to do with the volatility of noise trades, is increasing as time goes by, but not all information of asset value is incorporated into the price in the final disclosed time due to the incompleteness of insider’s observation, though the market depth is still a time-independent constant. Some simulations are illustrated to show these features. However, it is an open question of how to make maximal profit if the insider is risk-averse.

Relationship between lending interest rate, inflation rate and capital formation in Kenya

The study seeks to understand the relationship between lending interest rate, inflation rate and capital formation in Kenya. Time series from World Bank for the 1988 to 2018 is employed. Development of literature is guided by expectation theory, classical theory of interest rate and the institutionalist theory of capital formation. The study finds capital formation, lending interest rate ad inflation rate time series data to be stationary at the 5% level of significance. This leads to the checking of the lag order used and estimating of VAR model. The results indicate that, current year’s; capital formation, inflation rate and lending interest rate are insignificant in determining next year’s level of capital formation. First lag of inflation rate is found positively significant in influencing lending interest rates as well as the first lag of lending interest rate is found significant on influencing itself. Capital formation first lag is found to be negatively significant in determining inflation rate. Lastly, inflation rate first lag is found to be positive

Modern Financial Market Theory – A Critique Based on the Logic of Human Action

The modern financial market theory (MFMT) – based on the efficient market hypothesis, rational expectation theory, and modern portfolio theory – has become the standard approach in financial market economics. In this article, the MFMT will be critically ­reviewed using the logic of human action (or: praxeology) as an epistemological meta­theory. It will be shown that the MFMT exhibits (praxeo-)logical deficiencies so that it cannot provide investors with well-founded decision-making support in real-world financial markets.

Steadiness of expectation theory measured by swaption curve

The financial crisis that broke out in mid-2007 has spread in the existing financial system with great instability favoring the devaluation of currencies with the fall in market interest rates. This has caused potential investors to become more risk-averse and therefore, look for financial products, although lower profitability, also poses less risk. Following this line, it is the Fixed Income assets that have acquired greater prominence in these times of crisis. This article highlights the strength of the expectation theory in different tranches, using EURIBOR rate to determine implicit forwards, and estimate the price of a one-year swap contract with 3 months of maturity, and comparing in every moment with the real prices of swap as a benchmark. SWAP is the bigger derivative inside of the group of Fixed Income Assets. After the quantitative analyst, it has been observed how the theory prevails of sceneries of low volatility but falls on sceneries when the volatility starts to increase. Introduction. One of the basic assumptions about financial theory is talking about the expectations theory. Since the middle of the eighties, this theory has been used as the unbiased estimator to calculate the swap interest rate in the base of the spot bank interest rate. Aim. Quantitativa analyst of the steadiness of expectations theory in differents economical cycles, using the European Central bank as the source to get hold of the EURIBOR spot rates for 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 12months from 2004 to 2016. Results. During the periods before the crisis 2007, the prices of the IRSWAP are almost adjusted between the market and what the financial theory says. The situation starts to change after the financial crisis when the volatility of the market starts to increase due to the instability of the banking sector and traders started with speculations strategies forgetting the aim of hedging, operating, new positions the majority in the short term. Conclusion. Whether for speculative reason or interventions actions of the monetary authority, the theory e “EXPECTATIONS THEORY”, it is not an efficient predictor with out using a premium risk, during the periods of high volatility.

La théorie autrichienne des cycles: une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation

This paper offers an account of the recent development of Austrian Trade Cycle Theory. It focus on the theoretical contributions and argues that the Austrian’s explanation of Trade Cycle is a theory of collective errors of expectations and of their recurrences. Austrian economists agree to explain the errors of individuals by the nationalization of money because it leads to an excess of money supply. Nevertheless, they disagree about the cause of this excess. Two explanations have been suggested. The first one measures the excess in relation with the demand of money. The second one evaluates the excess in relation with monetary saving. They agree, on the contrary, on the reasons of the recurrence of expectation errors and their uniformity. The theory of property rights explains the recurrence of expectation errors by the socialization of risk. The expectation theory explains the collective errors by the centralisation of expectations (big player hypothesis) on the central bank decisions. Therefore, the centralization of expectations explains the instability of market process. Keywords: cycle, expectations, property rights, central banking, free banking and error Classification JEL: E32, E58, Resume: Cet article présente les développements récents de la théorie autrichienne des cycles. Il se concentre sur les apports théoriques et soutient que désormais la théorie autrichienne des cycles est une théorie plurielle de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation. Les économistes autrichiens s’accordent pour penser que la nationalisation de la monnaie est à l’origine de l’excès d’offre de monnaie qui crée une distorsion de la structure des taux d’intérêt des prêts et induit la phase de récession. Ils s’entendent aussi sur les raisons de la récurrence des erreurs d’anticipation et sur leur uniformité. La théorie des droits de propriété explique la récurrence des erreurs d’anticipation par la socialisation des risques. La théorie des anticipations explique les erreurs collectives par la centralisation des anticipations autour des décisions de la banque centrale et rend compte ainsi de l’instabilité des systèmes économiques. Les économistes autrichiens se divisent, en revanche, sur les raisons de cet excès d’offre de monnaie. Il y a ceux qui soutiennent que cet excès d’offre se mesure par rapport à l’épargne monétaire et s’explique par la pratique des réserves fractionnaires (école de la libre circulation). Il y a ceux, au contraire, qui estiment que cet excès doit être mesuré par rapport à la demande de monnaie et expliqué par l’absence de concurrence entre les monnaies (école de la banque libre). Mots clés: cycles, anticipations, droits de propriété, banque centrale, banque libre et erreur

Does Time Varying Risk Premia Exist in the International Bond Market? An Empirical Evidence from Australian and French Bond Market

The presence of risk premium is an issue that weakens the rational expectation hypothesis. This paper investigates changing behavior of time varying risk premium for holding 10 year maturity bond using a bivariate VARMA-DBEKK-AGARCH-M model. The model allows for asymmetric risk premia, causality and co-volatility spillovers jointly in the global bond markets. Empirical results show significant asymmetric partial co-volatility spillovers and risk premium exist in the bond markets. The estimates of the bivariate risk premia show bi-directional causality exist between the Australia and France Bond markets. Overall results suggest nonexistence of pure rational expectation theory in the risk premium model. This information is useful for the agents’ strategic policy decision making in global bond markets.