Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

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Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach

Journal of Banking & Finance ◽

10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.07.002 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 47 ◽

pp. 258-269 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Giovanni Caggiano ◽

Pietro Calice ◽

Leone Leonida

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Multinomial Logit ◽

Banking Crises ◽

Low Income Countries ◽

Warning Systems

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Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!

Economies ◽

10.3390/economies7010020 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 20

Author(s):

Hany Abdel-Latif ◽

Tapas Mishra ◽

Anita Staneva

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Low Income ◽

Arab World ◽

Spillover Effects ◽

Arab Countries ◽

Low Income Countries ◽

Institutional Reforms ◽

Growth Processes ◽

Middle Income ◽

Cross Country

We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one country triggers institutional reforms and growth upsurge in the neighbouring countries, and (ii) the magnitude and direction of response to democracy shocks are contingent upon income pathways of countries. To estimate the spillover effects of democracy shocks, we model and estimate growth interdependence among individual countries with similar democratic characteristics. To study the nature of responses of democracy shocks on cross-country growth processes, we build and estimate a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model where we allow countries to be interdependent with regard to bilateral migration and geographical proximity. Using the GVAR model, we also stimulate a positive shock to democracy in Egypt—the most populous Arabic country—and study its impacts on institutional reforms and economic growth in the rest of the Arab World. We find that high and upper-middle income countries are immune to democracy shocks in Egypt, whereas the lower middle and low income countries are susceptible to another revolutionary wave.

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The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634617 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 34 (05) ◽

pp. 518-522 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

M. Bensadon ◽

A. Strauss ◽

R. Snacken

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Surveillance Networks ◽

Spanish Flu ◽

The 1950S ◽

National Networks ◽

First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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