scholarly journals Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Hany Abdel-Latif ◽  
Tapas Mishra ◽  
Anita Staneva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Growth Processes ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Cross Country

We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one country triggers institutional reforms and growth upsurge in the neighbouring countries, and (ii) the magnitude and direction of response to democracy shocks are contingent upon income pathways of countries. To estimate the spillover effects of democracy shocks, we model and estimate growth interdependence among individual countries with similar democratic characteristics. To study the nature of responses of democracy shocks on cross-country growth processes, we build and estimate a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model where we allow countries to be interdependent with regard to bilateral migration and geographical proximity. Using the GVAR model, we also stimulate a positive shock to democracy in Egypt—the most populous Arabic country—and study its impacts on institutional reforms and economic growth in the rest of the Arab World. We find that high and upper-middle income countries are immune to democracy shocks in Egypt, whereas the lower middle and low income countries are susceptible to another revolutionary wave.

scholarly journals Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (289) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Weisfeld ◽  
Irineu de Carvalho Filho ◽  
Fabio Comelli ◽  
Rahul Giri ◽  
Klaus-Peter Hellwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Cross Country

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

scholarly journals On the determinants of trade openness in low- and lower–middle-income countries in Africa: how important is economic growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Boahene Osei ◽  
Yakubu Awudu Sare ◽  
Muazu Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe existing literature highlights the determinants of trade openness with disregard to the income classifications of countries in examining whether the determinants differ given their income levels. This study, therefore, re-examines the drivers of trade openness in Africa relying on panel data with special focus on the role of economic growth. More specifically, we perform a comparative analysis of the factors influencing trade openness for low-income and lower–middle-income countries using the system generalized method of moments. Our findings suggest that, while economic growth robustly enhances openness in low-income countries, in the case of lower–middle-income countries, the impact is not robust and largely negative suggesting that higher growth is associated with less openness. We also find that, economic growth–openness nexus for the lower-income countries exhibits non-linearities and inverted U-shaped relationship in particular. Thus, while increases in real GDP per capita enhance openness, beyond an estimated threshold point, any increases in economic growth dampen openness. We discuss key implications for policy.

scholarly journals Lifestyle transitions and the developing world: Reflections on the implications for health, well-being and wealth

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Ufuoma John Ejughemre
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Middle Income

Context: The past few decades witnessed significant economic growth in many developing countries of the world. These economic changes towards increasing gross domestic product (GDP) brought with it several other transitions in these countries: demographic, epidemiological, technological, and nutritional. These resulted in improving the living standards as well as life expectancy in many of these countries. However, of public health concern is the fact that these transitions paradoxically have their negative consequences on the health, well-being and wealth of the populace in these countries. Objectives: This review therefore assesses the evidence of the extent to which these changes have affected the living patterns in many developing countries and the epidemiological implications besides others issues on the populace in these countries. Methods: By using key words, the author involved a broad search of literatures on lifestyle changes, economic growth, nutrition, urbanization, smoking and alcohol, communicable and non-communicable diseases in countries termed low and middle income. Findings and conclusion: The review identified discernible evidence base about the implications of these changes on health, well-being and wealth of these nations. Accordingly, as lifestyle transitions now come to bear, it thus necessitates an all inclusive approach that will include proactive and pre-emptive interventions as well as consistent participation from governments, multilateral institutions, research-funding agencies, donors, and other players in health systems. This is because it will provide the global community with great opportunities in uniting high, middle, and low-income countries in a common purpose, given the shared interests of globalization and economic burdens worldwide.

Internet Use and Economic Growth

2017 ◽  
pp. 69-83
Author(s):  
Abhijit Bhattacharya ◽  
Archita Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Regression Techniques

A good infrastructure is actually the base behind the growth of an economy. In the present age of globalization accessibility of information is a very important component of infrastructure. Studies carried out on the effect of internet on economic growth are mostly either on high income countries only or on a large number of countries belonging to different income groups. Keeping in mind the differential impact of internet on economic growth of countries with different initial conditions, we have attempted in this chapter a study on the impact of internet use on economic growth in 39 lower middle income and low income countries during 2002-2011. Applying panel data regression techniques we have found a positive significant impact of internet use on economic growth of low income countries. The emergence of crisis adversely affected this growth process, overruling the positive impact of internet use.

Does foreign direct investment cause economic growth? A dynamic panel data analysis for SADC countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmore E Mahembe ◽  
Nicholas M Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the period 1980-2012. It also investigates whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income. Design/methodology/approach – In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the middle-income countries and the low-income countries. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine this linkage. The Granger causality test for the middle-income countries was conducted within a vector-error correction mechanism framework; while that of the low-income countries was conducted within a vector autoregressions framework. Findings – The results for the middle-income countries’ panel show that there is a uni-directional causal flow from GDP to FDI, and not vice versa. However, for the low-income countries’ panel, there was no evidence of causality in either direction. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. Research limitations/implications – Methodology applied in this study is a bivariate framework which is likely to suffer from the omission of variable bias (Odhiambo, 2008, 2011). Second, the Granger causality analysis employed in this only investigates the direction of causality and whether each variable can be used to explain another, but does not directly test for the mechanisms through which FDI leads to economic growth and economic growth leads to FDI. Practical implications – Future studies may include a third variable such as domestic savings, exports, or financial development in a trivariate or multivariate panel causality model. A more complete analysis which seeks to explain the channels through which FDI impacts growth is suggested for future studies. Lastly, sector level analysis will help policy makers draft effective industrial policies, which can guide allocation of incentives. Social implications – The results of this study support the Growth-led FDI hypothesis, but not the FDI-led growth hypothesis. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region and into Southern Africa, and not vice versa. This implies that the recent high economic growth rates that have been recorded in some of the SADC countries, especially the middle-income countries, have led to a massive inflow of FDI into this region. Originality/value – At the regional level, SADC as a regional bloc has been actively pursuing policies and strategies aimed at attracting FDI into the region. Despite the important role of FDI in economic development, and the increase in FDI inflows into SADC countries in particular, there is a significant dearth of literature on the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in SADC countries.

scholarly journals The Effects of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Use on Human Development—A Macroeconomic Approach

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Nada Karaman Aksentijević ◽  
Zoran Ježić ◽  
Petra Adelajda Zaninović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Communication Technology ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Ict Use ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Impact

Information and communication technology (ICT) is considered a significant factor in economic growth and development. Over the past two decades, scholars have studied the impact of ICT on economic growth, but there has been little research that has addressed the impact of ICT on human development, which is considered one of the fundamental factors of economic development. This could be especially important from the perspective of developing countries, which can develop faster through the implementation of ICT. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of ICT use on human development, distinguishing effects among high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries following the World Bank classification 2020. Our sample includes 130 countries in the period from 2007 to 2019. The empirical analysis is based on dynamic panel data regression analysis. We use Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as an estimator, i.e., two-step system GMM. The results primarily support the dynamic behaviour of human development. The results of the analysis also show that ICT has highly significant positive effects on human development in lower-middle-income and low-income countries, while the effects do not appear to be significant in high- and middle-income countries. This research serves as an argument for the need to invest in ICT and its implementation in low-income countries; however, it also suggests that the story is not one-sided and that there are possible negative effects of ICT use on human development. From the perspective of economic policy, the results can be a guideline for the implementation and use of ICT in developing countries, which could lead to economic growth and development and thus better quality of life. On the other hand, policymakers in developed countries cannot rely on ICT alone; they should also consider other technological innovations that could ensure a better quality of life.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURES AND TRANSPORTATION SERVICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: RECENT EVIDENCE FROM HIGH-, MIDDLE- AND LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-42
Author(s):  
Haifa Mefteh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Transportation Services ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the links between digital infrastructures (DI); transportation services (TS) and economic growth using simultaneous-equation panel data models for a panel of 62 countries for the period 2000-2018. The results indicate that there is evidence of bidirectional relationship between DI and economic process. Economic growth and TS are interrelated bidirectional relationship. Bidirectional link is validated between DI and TS for high-income and middle-income countries. Unidirectional causality is running from TS to DI for low incomes countries. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers, working in low incomes countries. They help them to develop modern DI and TS to sustain economic development and to push substantial changes within the way of life and productivity. This has led to enormous technological advancement which is in line with but at a faster pace than the technological advancement of previous revolutions.

Internet Use and Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 291-306
Author(s):  
Abhijit Bhattacharya ◽  
Archita Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Regression Techniques

A good infrastructure is actually the base behind the growth of an economy. In the present age of globalization accessibility of information is a very important component of infrastructure. Studies carried out on the effect of internet on economic growth are mostly either on high income countries only or on a large number of countries belonging to different income groups. Keeping in mind the differential impact of internet on economic growth of countries with different initial conditions, we have attempted in this chapter a study on the impact of internet use on economic growth in 39 lower middle income and low income countries during 2002-2011. Applying panel data regression techniques we have found a positive significant impact of internet use on economic growth of low income countries. The emergence of crisis adversely affected this growth process, overruling the positive impact of internet use.

Educational inequalities

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 447-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita Billon ◽  
Jorge Crespo ◽  
Fernando Lera-López
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
Educational Inequality ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of Internet use on economic growth and the extent to which educational inequality modulates this impact for a panel data set of 94 countries between 1995 and 2010. We obtain a positive and significant impact of Internet use on economic growth and a negative influence of educational inequality on the Internet’s impact on growth. When we disaggregate by income levels, the results indicate that Internet use is positively associated with economic growth for middle- and high-income countries. Educational inequality influences the impact of Internet use on economic growth only for middle- and low-income countries, although with the opposite sign. For middle-income countries, the impact is negative, while the impact is positive for low-income economies. The research provides evidence for the first time about how inequalities in education may limit the positive economic outcomes and benefits derived from the use of information and communication technologies.

scholarly journals Post-Financial Crises Puzzle of Economic Growth in Low and Lower-Middle Income Countries: Evidence from Static and Dynamic Panel Estimations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad m shafiq ◽  
Bosede Ngozi ADELEYE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Abstract This paper investigates economic growth in 65 low and lower-middle-income countries from 2010 to 2017. Results from static and dynamic panel data techniques show that foreign direct investment (FDI), capital formation, and labor force significantly increase economic growth while government expenditure decreases growth. Mobile phone subscription reveals no significant impact on growth at aggregate levels. Furthermore, analyses at the income group level reveal substantial differences between the determinants of economic growth in low and lower-middle-income countries. For instance, FDI is a significant predictor of growth in low-income countries, but not in lower-middle-income countries. Similarly, government expenditure and mobile cellular subscriptions are not significant predictors in low-income countries relative to lower-middle-income countries. Interestingly, capital formation and labor force are the two common significant predictors across low and lower-income countries.

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