Examining soil carbon uncertainty in a global model: response of microbial decomposition to temperature, moisture and nutrient limitation
Abstract. Reliable projections of future climate require land–atmosphere carbon (C) fluxes to be represented realistically in Earth System Models. There are several sources of uncertainty in how carbon is parameterized in these models. First, while interactions between the C, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles have been implemented in some models, these lead to diverse changes in land–atmosphere fluxes. Second, while the parameterization of soil organic matter decomposition is similar between models, formulations of the control of the soil physical state on microbial activity vary widely. We address these sources uncertainty by implementing three soil moisture (SMRF) and three soil temperature (STRF) respiration functions in an Earth System Model that can be run with three degrees of biogeochemical nutrient limitation (C-only, C and N, and C and N and P). All 27 possible combinations of a SMRF with a STRF and a biogeochemical mode are equilibrated before transient historical (1850–2005) simulations are performed. As expected, implementing N and P limitation reduces the land carbon sink, transforming some regions from net sinks to net sources over the historical period (1850–2005). Differences in the soil C balance implied by the various SMRFs and STRFs also change the sign of some regional sinks. Further, although the absolute uncertainty in global carbon uptake is reduced, the uncertainty due to the SMRFs and STRFs grows relative to the inter-annual variability in net uptake when N and P limitations are added. We also demonstrate that the equilibrated soil C also depend on the shape of the SMRF and STRF. Equilibration using different STRFs and SMRFs and nutrient limitation generates a six-fold range of global soil C that largely mirrors the range in available (17) CMIP5 models. Simulating the historical change in soil carbon therefore critically depends on the choice of STRF, SMRF and nutrient limitation, as it controls the equilibrated state to which transient conditions are applied. This direct effect of the representation of microbial decomposition in Earth System Models adds to recent concerns on the adequacy of these simple representations of very complex soil carbon processes.