Land use/Land cover Changes and Associated Impacts on Water Yield Availability and Variation, Mereb-Gash River Basin in Horn of Africa
<p>Climate variability, drought, and deforestation are increasing in the Horn of Africa (HOA). Evaluating land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impacts on water availability and variation are vital actions for regional land-use planning and water resources management. LULC changes during 2000-2015 were estimated using high resolution Landsat images and Google Earth Engine cloud platform, and land-use dynamics index (K). The impact of LULC change on water yield was evaluated using the InVEST model. The results at regional scale show that there were rapid decreases in the area of forests and barren lands (-K) while there was a drastic increase in built-up area (+K values). The transition was found to decrease from forested land to low biomass with highest and lowest values of 51.13% and 16.7%, respectively. There were similar LULC changes in the Mereb-Gash river basin. The total annual water yield increased for all the catchments during 2000-2015, and reached the peak in 2010. The highest annual water yield decreased in the forested lands from 43.18 million m<sup>3</sup> in 2000 to 4.1 million m<sup>3</sup> in 2015. There was a strong positive correlation between areal changes (%) and the annual water yield variations (%) in all the LULC types except for the water body, and the correlation was significantly positive for the forested areas (p<0.01). The study demonstrates that the decrease in forested areas and expansion in the built-up areas had large impact on water yield. The impacts may further increase pressure on the ecosystem services, exacerbate water scarcity, and food insecurity unless basic measures are planned and implemented.</p><p>Key words: LULC; climate variability; InVEST; annual water yield; K-index</p><p>&#160;</p>