Improving sea-ice cover and SST forecasts by sea-ice thickness initialization

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Beena Balan Sarojini ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Hao Zuo ◽  
Frederic Vitart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ocean Reanalysis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Melting Season

<p>A substantial amount of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice variability is potentially predictable, but improved model biases and initialization techniques are needed to realize this potential. Forecasts for other Earth System components can be expected to benefit from improved sea-ice forecasts as well, because the presence of sea ice drastically alters exchanges of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. Here, we present the impact of initializing subseasonal forecasts with observed sea-ice thickness. The newly developed sea-ice thickness data set CS2SMOS that we use is derived from radar altimetry and L-band radiance satellite observations. It allows for the first time a spatially complete view of pan-Arctic ice thickness on a near-daily basis during the freezing season. The ingestion of this data into the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system improves subseasonal forecasts of the Arctic ice edge during the melting season by up to 10%. Sea-surface temperature forecasts at high latitudes are also significantly improved during the melting season, because an improved prediction of ice-free date allows an improved forecast of the amount of seasonal warming. These results illustrate the potential for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions by initializing the sea-ice thickness.</p>

scholarly journals Benefits of assimilating thin sea ice thickness from SMOS into the TOPAZ system

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2745-2761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Xie ◽  
François Counillon ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Kaleschke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Anomaly Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An observation product for thin sea ice thickness (SMOS-Ice) is derived from the brightness temperature data of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. This product is available in near-real time, at daily frequency, during the cold season. In this study, we investigate the benefit of assimilating SMOS-Ice into the TOPAZ coupled ocean and sea ice forecasting system, which is the Arctic component of the Copernicus marine environment monitoring services. The TOPAZ system assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), altimetry data, temperature and salinity profiles, ice concentration, and ice drift with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The conditions for assimilation of sea ice thickness thinner than 0.4 m are favorable, as observations are reliable below this threshold and their probability distribution is comparable to that of the model. Two parallel Observing System Experiments (OSE) have been performed in March and November 2014, in which the thicknesses from SMOS-Ice (thinner than 0.4 m) are assimilated in addition to the standard observational data sets. It is found that the root mean square difference (RMSD) of thin sea ice thickness is reduced by 11 % in March and 22 % in November compared to the daily thin ice thicknesses of SMOS-Ice, which suggests that SMOS-Ice has a larger impact during the beginning of the cold season. Validation against independent observations of ice thickness from buoys and ice draft from moorings indicates that there are no degradations in the pack ice but there are some improvements near the ice edge close to where the SMOS-Ice has been assimilated. Assimilation of SMOS-Ice yields a slight improvement for ice concentration and degrades neither SST nor sea level anomaly. Analysis of the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) indicates that the SMOS-Ice has a comparatively small impact but it has a significant contribution in constraining the system (> 20 % of the impact of all ice and ocean observations) near the ice edge. The areas of largest impact are the Kara Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Baffin Bay, Beaufort Sea and Greenland Sea. This study suggests that the SMOS-Ice is a good complementary data set that can be safely included in the TOPAZ system.

scholarly journals Benefits of assimilating thin sea-ice thickness from SMOS-Ice into the TOPAZ system

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Xie ◽  
Francois Counillon ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Kaleschke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An observation product for thin sea ice thickness (SMOS-Ice) is derived from the brightness temperature data of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Mission, and available in real-time at daily frequency during the winter season. In this study, we investigate the benefit of assimilating SMOS-Ice into the TOPAZ system. TOPAZ is a coupled ocean-sea ice forecast system that assimilates SST, altimetry data, temperature and salinity profiles, ice concentration, and ice drift with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The conditions for assimilation of sea ice thickness thinner than 0.4 m are favorable, as observations are reliable below this threshold and their probability distribution is comparable to that of the model. Two paralleled runs of TOPAZ have been performed respectively in March and November 2014, with assimilation of thin sea ice thickness (thinner than 0.4 m) in addition to the standard ice and ocean observational data sets. It is found that the RMSD of thin sea-ice thickness is reduced by 11 % in March and 22 % in November suggesting that SMOS-Ice has a larger impact during the beginning of freezing season. There is a slight improvement of the ice concentration and no degradation of the ocean variables. The Degrees of Freedom for Signal (DFS) indicate that the SMOS-Ice contents important information (> 20 % of the impact of all observations) for some areas in the Arctic. The areas of largest impact are the Kara Sea, the Canadian archipelago, the Baffin Bay, the Beaufort Sea and the Greenland Sea. This study suggests that SMOS-Ice is a good complementary data set that can be safely included in the TOPAZ system as it improves the ice thickness and the ice concentration but does not degrade other quantities. Keywords: SMOS-Ice; EnKF; OSE; thin sea-ice thickness; DFS;

The implications of selected processing methods on satellite altimetry derived sea ice thickness state and trends in the seasonal ice zone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isolde Glissenaar ◽  
Jack Landy ◽  
Alek Petty ◽  
Nathan Kurtz ◽  
Julienne Stroeve
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Baffin Bay ◽  
The Impact

<p>The ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is increasingly becoming dominated by seasonal sea ice. It is important to focus on the processing of altimetry ice thickness data in thinner seasonal ice regions to understand seasonal sea ice behaviour better. This study focusses on Baffin Bay as a region of interest to study seasonal ice behaviour.</p><p>We aim to reconcile the spring sea ice thickness derived from multiple satellite altimetry sensors and sea ice charts in Baffin Bay and produce a robust long-term record (2003-2020) for analysing trends in sea ice thickness. We investigate the impact of choosing different snow depth products (the Warren climatology, a passive microwave snow depth product and modelled snow depth from reanalysis data) and snow redistribution methods (a sigmoidal function and an empirical piecewise function) to retrieve sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry sea ice freeboard data.</p><p>The choice of snow depth product and redistribution method results in an uncertainty envelope around the March mean sea ice thickness in Baffin Bay of 10%. Moreover, the sea ice thickness trend ranges from -15 cm/dec to 20 cm/dec depending on the applied snow depth product and redistribution method. Previous studies have shown a possible long-term asymmetrical trend in sea ice thinning in Baffin Bay. The present study shows that whether a significant long-term asymmetrical trend was found depends on the choice of snow depth product and redistribution method. The satellite altimetry sea ice thickness results with different snow depth products and snow redistribution methods show that different processing techniques can lead to different results and can influence conclusions on total and spatial sea ice thickness trends. Further processing work on the historic radar altimetry record is needed to create reliable sea ice thickness products in the marginal ice zone.</p>

scholarly journals Satellite-based sea ice thickness changes in the Laptev Sea from 2002 to 2017: comparison to mooring observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 2189-2203
Author(s):  
H. Jakob Belter ◽  
Thomas Krumpen ◽  
Stefan Hendricks ◽  
Jens Hoelemann ◽  
Markus A. Janout ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Source Region ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Laptev Sea ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Laptev Sea

Abstract. The gridded sea ice thickness (SIT) climate data record (CDR) produced by the European Space Agency (ESA) Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative Phase 2 (CCI-2) is the longest available, Arctic-wide SIT record covering the period from 2002 to 2017. SIT data are based on radar altimetry measurements of sea ice freeboard from the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and CryoSat-2 (CS2). The CCI-2 SIT has previously been validated with in situ observations from drilling, airborne remote sensing, electromagnetic (EM) measurements and upward-looking sonars (ULSs) from multiple ice-covered regions of the Arctic. Here we present the Laptev Sea CCI-2 SIT record from 2002 to 2017 and use newly acquired ULS and upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) sea ice draft (VAL) data for validation of the gridded CCI-2 and additional satellite SIT products. The ULS and ADCP time series provide the first long-term satellite SIT validation data set from this important source region of sea ice in the Transpolar Drift. The comparison of VAL sea ice draft data with gridded monthly mean and orbit trajectory CCI-2 data, as well as merged CryoSat-2–SMOS (CS2SMOS) sea ice draft, shows that the agreement between the satellite and VAL draft data strongly depends on the thickness of the sampled ice. Rather than providing mean sea ice draft, the considered satellite products provide modal sea ice draft in the Laptev Sea. Ice drafts thinner than 0.7 m are overestimated, while drafts thicker than approximately 1.3 m are increasingly underestimated by all satellite products investigated for this study. The tendency of the satellite SIT products to better agree with modal sea ice draft and underestimate thicker ice needs to be considered for all past and future investigations into SIT changes in this important region. The performance of the CCI-2 SIT CDR is considered stable over time; however, observed trends in gridded CCI-2 SIT are strongly influenced by the uncertainties of ENVISAT and CS2 and the comparably short investigation period.

Winter Arctic sea ice freeboard, snow depth and thickness variability from ICESat-2 and NESOSIM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alek Petty ◽  
Nicole Keeney ◽  
Alex Cabaj ◽  
Paul Kushner ◽  
Nathan Kurtz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Cloud ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Thickness Variability ◽  
Arctic Ice

<div> <div> <div> <div> <p>National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite‐ 2 (ICESat‐2) mission was launched in September 2018 and is now providing routine, very high‐resolution estimates of surface height/type (the ATL07 product) and freeboard (the ATL10 product) across the Arctic and Southern Oceans. In recent work we used snow depth and density estimates from the NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) together with ATL10 freeboard data to estimate sea ice thickness across the entire Arctic Ocean. Here we provide an overview of updates made to both the underlying ATL10 freeboard product and the NESOSIM model, and the subsequent impacts on our estimates of sea ice thickness including updated comparisons to the original ICESat mission and ESA’s CryoSat-2. Finally we compare our Arctic ice thickness estimates from the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 winters and discuss possible causes of these differences based on an analysis of atmospheric data (ERA5), ice drift (NSIDC) and ice type (OSI SAF).</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Suppression of Arctic sea ice growth by winter clouds and snowfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Won-il Lim ◽  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
Andrew Stewart ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The ongoing Arctic warming has been pronounced in winter and has been associated with an increase in downward longwave radiation. While previous studies have demonstrated that poleward moisture flux into the Arctic strengthens downward longwave radiation, less attention has been given to the impact of the accompanying increase in snowfall. Here, utilizing state-of-the art sea ice models, we show that typical winter snowfall anomalies of 1.0 cm, accompanied by positive downward longwave radiation anomalies of ~5 W m-2 can decrease sea ice thickness by around 5 cm in the following spring over the Eurasian Seas. This basin-wide ice thinning is followed by a shrinking of summer ice extent in extreme cases. In the winter of 2016–17, anomalously strong warm/moist air transport combined with ~2.5 cm increase in snowfall decreased spring ice thickness by ~10 cm and decreased the following summer sea ice extent by 5–30%. Projected future reductions in the thickness of Arctic sea ice and snow will amplify the impact of anomalous winter snowfall events on winter sea ice growth and seasonal sea ice thickness.

scholarly journals On retrieving sea ice freeboard from ICESat laser altimeter

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2329-2346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirill Khvorostovsky ◽  
Pierre Rampal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Laser Altimeter ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Along Track ◽  
Multiyear Ice

Abstract. Sea ice freeboard derived from satellite altimetry is the basis for the estimation of sea ice thickness using the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium. High accuracy of altimeter measurements and freeboard retrieval procedure are, therefore, required. As of today, two approaches for estimating the freeboard using laser altimeter measurements from Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), referred to as tie points (TP) and lowest-level elevation (LLE) methods, have been developed and applied in different studies. We reproduced these methods for the ICESat observation periods (2003–2008) in order to assess and analyse the sources of differences found in the retrieved freeboard and corresponding thickness estimates of the Arctic sea ice as produced by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Three main factors are found to affect the freeboard differences when applying these methods: (a) the approach used for calculation of the local sea surface references in leads (TP or LLE methods), (b) the along-track averaging scales used for this calculation, and (c) the corrections for lead width relative to the ICESat footprint and for snow depth accumulated in refrozen leads. The LLE method with 100 km averaging scale, as used to produce the GSFC data set, and the LLE method with a shorter averaging scale of 25 km both give larger freeboard estimates comparing to those derived by applying the TP method with 25 km averaging scale as used for the JPL product. Two factors, (a) and (b), contribute to the freeboard differences in approximately equal proportions, and their combined effect is, on average, about 6–7 cm. The effect of using different methods varies spatially: the LLE method tends to give lower freeboards (by up to 15 cm) over the thick multiyear ice and higher freeboards (by up to 10 cm) over first-year ice and the thin part of multiyear ice; the higher freeboards dominate. We show that the freeboard underestimation over most of these thinner parts of sea ice can be reduced to less than 2 cm when using the improved TP method proposed in this paper. The corrections for snow depth in leads and lead width, (c), are applied only for the JPL product and increase the freeboard estimates by about 7 cm on average. Thus, different approaches to calculating sea surface references and different along-track averaging scales from one side and the freeboard corrections as applied when producing the JPL data set from the other side roughly compensate each other with respect to freeboard estimation. Therefore, one may conclude that the difference in the mean sea ice thickness between the JPL and GSFC data sets reported in previous studies should be attributed mostly to different parameters used in the freeboard-to-thickness conversion.

scholarly journals Impact of assimilating a merged sea ice thickness from CryoSat-2 and SMOS in the Arctic reanalysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Xie ◽  
Francois Counillon ◽  
Larent Bertino
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accurate forecast of Sea Ice Thickness (SIT) represents a major challenge for Arctic forecasting systems. The new CS2SMOS SIT product merges measurements from the CryoSat-2 and SMOS satellites and is available weekly during the winter months since October 2010. The impact of assimilating CS2SMOS is tested for the TOPAZ4 system – the Arctic component of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). TOPAZ4 currently assimilates a large set of ocean and sea ice observations with the Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF). Two parallel reanalyses are conducted with and without assimilation of the previously weekly CS2SMOS for the period from 19th March 2014 to 31st March 2015. The SIT bias (too thin) is reduced from 16 cm to 5 cm and the RMSD decreases from 53 cm to 38 cm (reduction by 28 %) when compared to the simultaneous SIT from CS2SMOS. Furthermore, compared to independent SIT observations, the errors are reduced by 24 % against the Ice Mass Balance (IMB) buoy 2013F and by 11 % against SIT data from the IceBridge campaigns. When compared to sea ice drift derived from International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) drifting buoys, we find that the assimilation of C2SMOS is beneficial in the sea ice pack areas, where the influence of SIT on the sea ice drift is strongest, with an error reduction of 0.2–0.3 km/day. Finally, we quantify the influence of C2SMOS compared to the other assimilated data by the number of Degrees of Freedom for Signal (DFS) and find that CS2SMOS is the main source of observations in the central Arctic and in the Kara Sea. These results suggest that C2SMOS observations should be included in Arctic reanalyses in order to improve the ice thickness and the ice drift, although some inconsistencies were found in the version of the data used.

scholarly journals Improving the WRF model's (version 3.6.1) simulation over sea ice surface through coupling with a complex thermodynamic sea ice model (HIGHTSI)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2239-2254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Yao ◽  
Jianbin Huang ◽  
Yong Luo ◽  
Zongci Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ice Model ◽  
Snow And Ice

Abstract. Sea ice plays an important role in the air–ice–ocean interaction, but it is often represented simply in many regional atmospheric models. The Noah sea ice scheme, which is the only option in the current Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.6.1), has a problem of energy imbalance due to its simplification in snow processes and lack of ablation and accretion processes in ice. Validated against the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) in situ observations, Noah underestimates the sea ice temperature which can reach −10 °C in winter. Sensitivity tests show that this bias is mainly attributed to the simulation within the ice when a time-dependent ice thickness is specified. Compared with the Noah sea ice model, the high-resolution thermodynamic snow and ice model (HIGHTSI) uses more realistic thermodynamics for snow and ice. Most importantly, HIGHTSI includes the ablation and accretion processes of sea ice and uses an interpolation method which can ensure the heat conservation during its integration. These allow the HIGHTSI to better resolve the energy balance in the sea ice, and the bias in sea ice temperature is reduced considerably. When HIGHTSI is coupled with the WRF model, the simulation of sea ice temperature by the original Polar WRF is greatly improved. Considering the bias with reference to SHEBA observations, WRF-HIGHTSI improves the simulation of surface temperature, 2 m air temperature and surface upward long-wave radiation flux in winter by 6, 5 °C and 20 W m−2, respectively. A discussion on the impact of specifying sea ice thickness in the WRF model is presented. Consistent with previous research, prescribing the sea ice thickness with observational information results in the best simulation among the available methods. If no observational information is available, we present a new method in which the sea ice thickness is initialized from empirical estimation and its further change is predicted by a complex thermodynamic sea ice model. The ice thickness simulated by this method depends much on the quality of the initial guess of the ice thickness and the role of the ice dynamic processes.

scholarly journals Sea ice export through the Fram Strait derived from a combined model and satellite data set

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3209-3224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Min ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Robert Ricker ◽  
Qian Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Volume

Abstract. Sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait plays an important role in the Arctic freshwater and energy redistribution. The combined model and satellite sea ice thickness (CMST) data set assimilates CryoSat-2 and soil moisture and ocean salinity (SMOS) thickness products together with satellite sea ice concentration. The CMST data set closes the gap of stand-alone satellite-derived sea ice thickness in summer and therefore allows us to estimate sea ice volume export during the melt season. In this study, we first validate the CMST data set using field observations, and then we estimate the continuous seasonal and interannual variations in Arctic sea ice volume flux through the Fram Strait from September 2010 to December 2016. The results show that seasonal and interannual sea ice volume export vary from about -240(±40) to -970(±60) km3 and -1970(±290) to -2490(±280) km3, respectively. The sea ice volume export reaches its maximum in spring and about one-third of the yearly total volume export occurs in the melt season. The minimum monthly sea ice export is −11 km3 in August 2015, and the maximum (−442 km3) appears in March 2011. The seasonal relative frequencies of sea ice thickness and drift suggest that the Fram Strait outlet in summer is dominated by sea ice that is thicker than 2 m with relatively slow seasonal mean drift of about 3 km d−1.

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