Spatial and subannual variability of the Antarctic Slope Current in an eddying ocean-sea ice model

The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) circumnavigates the Antarctic continent following the continental slope and separating the waters on the continental shelf from the deeper offshore Southern Ocean. Water mass exchanges across the continental slope are critical for the global climate as they impact the global overturning circulation and the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet via basal melting. Despite the ASC’s global importance, little is known about its spatial and subannual variability, as direct measurements of the velocity field are sparse. Here, we describe the ASC in a global eddying ocean-sea ice model and reveal its large-scale spatial variability by characterising the continental slope using three regimes: the surface-intensified ASC, the bottom-intensified ASC and the reversed ASC. Each ASC regime corresponds to a distinct classification of the density field as previously introduced in the literature, suggesting that the velocity and density fields are governed by the same leading-order dynamics around the Antarctic continental slope. Only the surface-intensified ASC regime has a strong seasonality. However, large temporal variability at a range of other timescales occurs across all regimes, including frequent reversals of the current. We anticipate our description of the ASC’s spatial and subannual variability to be helpful to guide future studies of the ASC aiming to advance our understanding of the region’s response to a changing climate.

Nonlinear fractional arctic systems

In this contribution, the nonlinear fractional arctic sea ice model is given, and the solution of the model was obtained using a new proposed modified Adomian decomposition method. The result is compared with the integer-order model, and we observed that a model with fractional order gives a better result. We also observed that the effect of climate change on arctic sea ice could lead to a large-scale sea ice melting with sea-level rise for several meters, which could pose a major threat to low-lying island nations and coastal areas.

Status and needs for ice tank testing in a changing climate

150 years ago, the first modern icebreaker in the world was designed by the naval architect Carl Ferdinand Steinhaus and built for purpose of removing ice barriers on the river Elbe in Hamburg, Germany. No model tests were performed at that time. Later, in the first half of the 20th century, “model tests” for ships were carried out in natural ice on lakes. In the 1950th the first-generation ice model basins were put in operation and ice model testing became a standard method in the icebreaker design process. This paper discusses the influence of the economic and environmental development in arctic regions, driven by shipping and offshore activities in environmental changing Arctic Waters, on the ice model basin design, equipment and testing methods. The developments will be presented with examples from The Hamburg Ship Model Basin (HSVA). To complete the overview, an outlook to future trends is attempted.

Transfer matrix in counting problems

The transfer matrix is a powerful technique that can be applied to statistical mechanics systems as, for example, in the calculus of the entropy of the ice model. One interesting way to study such systems is to map it onto a three-color problem. In this paper, we explicitly build the transfer matrix for the three-color problem in order to calculate the number of possible configurations for finite systems with free, periodic in one direction and toroidal boundary conditions (periodic in both directions)

Driving mechanisms of an extreme winter sea-ice breakup event in the Beaufort Sea

The thick multi-year sea ice that once covered large parts of the Arctic Ocean is being replaced by thinner and weaker first-year ice, making it increasingly vulnerable to breakup by storms. Here we use a sea ice model to investigate the driving mechanisms behind a large sea-ice breakup event in the Beaufort Sea in response to a series of storms during February–March 2013.These simulations are the first to successfully reproduce the timing, location and propagation of sea-ice leads associated with storm-induced breakup. We found that rheology in the sea-ice model and horizontal resolution in the atmospheric model are both crucial in accurately simulating such breakup events. The sensitivity of the breakup to the initial sea-ice thickness indicates that large breakup events will become more frequent as Arctic sea ice continues to thin. Here we show that large breakup events during winter have a significant impact on ice growth through enhanced air-sea fluxes in open leads, and enhanced drift speeds which increase the export of old, thick ice out of the Beaufort Sea. Overall, this results in a thinner and weaker ice cover that may precondition earlier breakup in spring and accelerate sea-ice loss.

Simulation of the ice thickness of the Heilongjiang River and application of SD models to a river ice model

The Heilongjiang River is a transboundary river between China and Russia, which often experiences ice dams that can trigger spring floods and significant damages in the region. Owing to insufficient data, no river ice model is applicable for the Heilongjiang River. Therefore, a river ice thickness model based on continuous meteorological data and river ice data at the Mohe Station located in the upper reach of the Heilongjiang River was proposed. Specifically, the proposed model was based on physical river ice processes and the Russian empirical theory. System dynamic models were applied to assess the proposed model. The performance of the river ice model was evaluated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Subsequently, sensitivity analyses of the model parameters through Latin hypercube sampling and uncertainty analyses of input variables were conducted. Results show that the formation of ice starts 10 days after the air temperature reaches below 0 °C. The maximum ice thickness occurs 10 days after the atmospheric temperature reaches the minimum. Ice starts to melt after the highest temperature is greater than 0 °C. The R2 of ice thickness in the middle of river (ITMR) and ice thickness at the riverside (ITRS) are 0.67 and 0.69, respectively; the RMSEs of ITMR and ITRS are 6.50 and 6.84, respectively; and the NSEs of ITMR and ITRS are 0.72 and 0.70, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that ice growth and ice melt are sensitive to the air temperature characterizing the thermal state. Uncertainty analyses show temperature has the greatest effect on river ice.

Characteristics and robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates: an inter-comparison study of Lagrangian methods

The inflow of relatively warm and salty water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic via Agulhas leakage is important for the global overturning circulation and the global climate. In this study, we analyse the robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates as well as the thermohaline property modifications of Agulhas leakage south of Africa. Lagrangian experiments with both the newly developed tool Parcels and the well established tool Ariane were performed to simulate Agulhas leakage in the eddy-rich ocean–sea-ice model INALT20 (1/20∘ horizontal resolution) forced by the JRA55-do atmospheric boundary conditions. The average transport, its variability, trend and the transit time from the Agulhas Current to the Cape Basin of Agulhas leakage is simulated comparably with both Lagrangian tools, emphasizing the robustness of our method. Different designs of the Lagrangian experiment alter in particular the total transport of Agulhas leakage by up to 2 Sv, but the variability and trend of the transport are similar across these estimates. During the transit from the Agulhas Current at 32∘ S to the Cape Basin, a cooling and freshening of Agulhas leakage waters occurs especially at the location of the Agulhas Retroflection, resulting in a density increase as the thermal effect dominates. Beyond the strong air–sea exchange around South Africa, Agulhas leakage warms and salinifies the water masses below the thermocline in the South Atlantic.