Quantifying uncertainty in future projections of ice loss from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Hill ◽  
Sebastian Rosier ◽  
Hilmar Gudmundsson ◽  
Matthew Collins
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Negative Contribution

<p>The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet under climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty for changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). Accelerated ice loss in recent decades has been concentrated in regions where warm circumpolar deep water forces high rates of sub-shelf melt. It is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by cold ocean waters with low melt rates will respond to changes in ocean conditions in future. For example, previous studies have shown that if warm water were to infiltrate beneath the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf, it could drastically increase sub-shelf melt rates. However, the inland ice-sheet response to climate-ocean changes remains uncertain. Here, we set out to quantify uncertainties in projections of GMSL from the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica over the next two centuries. To do this we take a large random sample from a probabilistic input parameter space and evaluate these parameter sets in the ice-sheet model Úa under four RCP forcing scenarios. We then use this training sample to generate a statistical surrogate model to capture the parameter to projection relationship from our ice-sheet model. Finally, we use sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters drive the majority of uncertainty in our projections.</p><p>Our results suggest that accumulation expected with warming is capable of suppressing increases in ice discharge associated with increased ocean-driven sub-shelf melt rates. This could allow the Filcher-Ronne basin to have a negative contribution to GMSL. However, parameters controlling mass accumulation and sub-shelf melting are highly uncertain. Crucially, there is potential within our input parameter space for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf and a positive contribution to sea level rise. Further improvements in the representation of accumulation and sub-shelf melt under climate warming in ice-sheet models will help determine the sign of GMSL projections from this region of the ice sheet.</p>

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Marine Ice Sheets

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 167-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractMarine ice sheets rest on land that, for the most part, is below sea-level. Ice that flows across the grounding line, where the ice sheet becomes afloat, either calves into icebergs or forms a floating ice shelf joined to the ice sheet. At the grounding line there is a transition from ice-sheet dynamics to ice-shelf dynamics, and the creep-thinning rate in this region is very sensitive to sea depth; rising sea-level causes increased thinning-rates and grounding-line retreat, falling sea-level has the reverse effect. If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet there may be only two stable modes: a freely-floating ice shelf or a marine ice sheet that extends to the edge of the continental shelf. Once started, collapse of such an ice sheet to form an ice shelf may take place extremely rapidly. Ice shelves which form in embayments of a marine ice sheet, or which are partially grounded, have a stabilizing influence since ice flowing across the grounding line has to push the ice shelf past its sides. Retreat of the grounding line tends to enlarge the ice shelf, which ultimately may become large enough to prevent excessive outflow from the ice sheet so that a new equilibrium grounding line is established; removal of the ice shelf would allow retreat to continue. During the late-Wisconsin glacial maximum there may have been marine ice sheets in the northern hemisphere but the only current example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. This is buttressed by the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelves, and if climatic warming were to prohibit the existence of these ice shelves then the ice sheet would collapse. Field observations suggest that, at present, the ice sheet may be advancing into parts of the Ross Ice Shelf. Such advance, however, would not ensure the security of the ice sheet since ice streams that drain to the north appear to flow directly into the sea with little or no ice shelf to buttress them. If these ice streams do not flow over a sufficiently high bedrock sill then they provide the most likely avenues for ice-sheet retreat.

A Model for Holocene Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas ◽  
Charles R. Bentley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
The West ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
West Antarctic

Marine ice sheets are grounded on land which was below sea level before it became depressed under the ice-sheet load. They are inherently unstable and, because of bedrock topography after depression, the collapse of a marine ice sheet may be very rapid. In this paper equations are derived that can be used to make a quantitative estimate of the maximum size of a marine ice sheet and of when and how rapidly retreat would take place under prescribed conditions. Ice-sheet growth is favored by falling sea level and uplift of the seabed. In most cases the buttressing effect of a partially grounded ice shelf is a prerequisite for maximum growth out to the edge of the continental shelf. Collapse is triggered most easily by eustatic rise in sea level, but it is possible that the ice sheet may self-destruct by depressing the edge of the continental shelf so that sea depth is increased at the equilibrium grounding line.Application of the equations to a hypothetical “Ross Ice Sheet” that 18,000 yr ago may have covered the present-day Ross Ice Shelf indicates that, if the ice sheet existed, it probably extended to a line of sills parallel to the edge of the Ross Sea continental shelf. By allowing world sea level to rise from its late-Wisconsin minimum it was possible to calculate retreat rates for individual ice streams that drained the “Ross Ice Sheet.” For all the models tested, retreat began soon after sea level began to rise (∼15,000 yr B.P.). The first 100 km of retreat took between 1500 and 2500 yr but then retreat rates rapidly accelerated to between 0.5 and 25 km yr−1, depending on whether an ice shelf was present or not, with corresponding ice velocities across the grounding line of 4 to 70 km yr−1. All models indicate that most of the present-day Ross Ice Shelf was free of grounded ice by about 7000 yr B.P. As the ice streams retreated floating ice shelves may have formed between promontories of slowly collapsing stagnant ice left behind by the rapidly retreating ice streams. If ice shelves did not form during retreat then the analysis indicates that most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would have collapsed by 9000 yr B.P. Thus, the present-day Ross Ice Shelf (and probably the Ronne Ice Shelf) serves to stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would collapse very rapidly if the ice shelves were removed. This provides support for the suggestion that the 6-m sea-level high during the Sangamon Interglacial was caused by collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after climatic warming had sufficiently weakened the ice shelves. Since the West Antarctic Ice Sheet still exists it seems likely that ice shelves did form during Holocene retreat. Their effect was to slow and, finally, to halt retreat. The models that best fit available data require a rather low shear stress between the ice shelf and its sides, and this implies that rapid shear in this region encouraged the formation of a band of ice with a preferred crystal fabric, as appears to be happening today in the floating portions of fast bounded glaciers.Rebound of the seabed after the ice sheet had retreated to an equilibrium position would allow the ice sheet to advance once more. This may be taking place today since analysis of data from the Ross Ice Shelf indicates that the southeast corner is probably growing thicker with time, and if this persists then large areas of ice shelf must become grounded. This would restrict drainage from West Antarctic ice streams which would tend to thicken and advance their grounding lines into the ice shelf.

scholarly journals Rapid sea-level rise from a West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse: a short-term perspective

1998 ◽  
Vol 44 (146) ◽  
pp. 157-163
Author(s):  
Charles R. Bentley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Personal Perspective ◽  
Rapid Rise ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic

AbstractWill worldwide sea level soon rise rapidly because of a shrinkage of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS)? Here I give a personal perspective of that probability. The crucial question is not whether large changes in ice mass can occur, but how likely it is that a large, rapid change, say a several-fold increase in the 20th-century rate of about 2 mm a-1, will occur in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause.Twenty years ago Weertman proposed that a marine ice sheet is inherently unstable. But Weertman’s analysis was based on a simple model of a marine ice sheet that did not include fast-flowing, wet-based ice streams, which are now known to dominate the grounded ice sheet. Modern analyses do not definitively determine just how ice streams affect the stability of the WAIS, but it can at least be said that there is no compelling theoretical reason to expect a rapid rise in sea level from the WAIS triggered by ice-shelf thinning.Of the three main ice-drainage systems in the WAIS, the one that flows into Pine Island Bay might be a particularly likely site for accelerated flow since there is no ice shelf to restrain the inflowing ice streams, yet measurements show that this system is not significantly out of mass balance. If the “Ross Embayment” system, which has undergone several sudden glacial reorganizations in the last thousand years, were unstable one might expect a history of large changes in the total outflow of ice into the Ross Ice Shelf, yet the total outflow in the “Ross Embayment” has remained relatively unchanged despite the large internal perturbations, a fact that, points to a stable, not an unstable, system. Study of the third major drainage from the WAIS, into the Ronne Ice Shelf, also suggests that there is no gross discordance between the present velocity vectors and flow tracers in the ice shelf, although the evidence is limited.In the light of the evidence for recent stability, it is difficult to see how climate warming (whether anthropogenic or natural) could trigger a collapse of the WAIS in the next century or two. Thus, I believe that a rapid rise in sea level in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause could only occur if a natural (not induced) collapse of the WAIS were imminent. Based on a concept of pseudo-random collapse once per major glacial cycle, I estimate the chances of that to be on the order of one in a thousand.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Marine Ice Sheets

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 167-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractMarine ice sheets rest on land that, for the most part, is below sea-level. Ice that flows across the grounding line, where the ice sheet becomes afloat, either calves into icebergs or forms a floating ice shelf joined to the ice sheet. At the grounding line there is a transition from ice-sheet dynamics to ice-shelf dynamics, and the creep-thinning rate in this region is very sensitive to sea depth; rising sea-level causes increased thinning-rates and grounding-line retreat, falling sea-level has the reverse effect. If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet there may be only two stable modes: a freely-floating ice shelf or a marine ice sheet that extends to the edge of the continental shelf. Once started, collapse of such an ice sheet to form an ice shelf may take place extremely rapidly. Ice shelves which form in embayments of a marine ice sheet, or which are partially grounded, have a stabilizing influence since ice flowing across the grounding line has to push the ice shelf past its sides. Retreat of the grounding line tends to enlarge the ice shelf, which ultimately may become large enough to prevent excessive outflow from the ice sheet so that a new equilibrium grounding line is established; removal of the ice shelf would allow retreat to continue. During the late-Wisconsin glacial maximum there may have been marine ice sheets in the northern hemisphere but the only current example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. This is buttressed by the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelves, and if climatic warming were to prohibit the existence of these ice shelves then the ice sheet would collapse. Field observations suggest that, at present, the ice sheet may be advancing into parts of the Ross Ice Shelf. Such advance, however, would not ensure the security of the ice sheet since ice streams that drain to the north appear to flow directly into the sea with little or no ice shelf to buttress them. If these ice streams do not flow over a sufficiently high bedrock sill then they provide the most likely avenues for ice-sheet retreat.

scholarly journals Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily A. Hill ◽  
Sebastian H. R. Rosier ◽  
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson ◽  
Matthew Collins
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (∆GMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner-Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates, is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics, and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean–driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ∆GMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP 8.5, ∆GMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections.

Effect of Improved Bedrock Geometry on Antarctic Vulnerability to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Martin ◽  
Stephen Cornford ◽  
Esmond Ng
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is vulnerable to the thinning or even the collapse of its floating ice shelves, which tend to buttress ice streams. Any reduction in buttressing results in acceleration and thinning upstream and potentially the onset of Marine Ice Sheet Instability. Recent work demonstrates that West Antarctica is vulnerable to sustained disintegration in any of its major marine outlets, resulting in 2-3 m sea level rise over 1000 years. At the same time regions in East Antarctica are vulnerable only to the loss of local ice shelves. However, most of this work has used the Bedmap2 dataset as a starting point. Since the release of Bedmap2 in 2012, there has been a sustained campaign of observations, along with improved interpolation techniques based on mass conservation. The resulting datasets, including the recently released BedMachine dataset, incorporate much-improved bedrock and thickness data compared to what was available in Bedmap2. </p><p>We reproduce our previous examination of the millennial-scale vulnerability of the AIS to the loss of its shelves to examine the effect of this improvement on projected Antarctic vulnerability, paying special attention to regions like the Aurora Basin which were under-constrained in Bedmap2.</p>

scholarly journals Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1245-1258
Author(s):  
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill ◽  
Isabel J. Nias ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Nicholas R. Golledge ◽  
Rory J. Bingham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Adaptive Mesh ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Rapid sea-level rise from a West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse: a short-term perspective

1998 ◽  
Vol 44 (146) ◽  
pp. 157-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles R. Bentley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Personal Perspective ◽  
Rapid Rise ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic

Abstract Will worldwide sea level soon rise rapidly because of a shrinkage of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS)? Here I give a personal perspective of that probability. The crucial question is not whether large changes in ice mass can occur, but how likely it is that a large, rapid change, say a several-fold increase in the 20th-century rate of about 2 mm a-1, will occur in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause. Twenty years ago Weertman proposed that a marine ice sheet is inherently unstable. But Weertman’s analysis was based on a simple model of a marine ice sheet that did not include fast-flowing, wet-based ice streams, which are now known to dominate the grounded ice sheet. Modern analyses do not definitively determine just how ice streams affect the stability of the WAIS, but it can at least be said that there is no compelling theoretical reason to expect a rapid rise in sea level from the WAIS triggered by ice-shelf thinning. Of the three main ice-drainage systems in the WAIS, the one that flows into Pine Island Bay might be a particularly likely site for accelerated flow since there is no ice shelf to restrain the inflowing ice streams, yet measurements show that this system is not significantly out of mass balance. If the “Ross Embayment” system, which has undergone several sudden glacial reorganizations in the last thousand years, were unstable one might expect a history of large changes in the total outflow of ice into the Ross Ice Shelf, yet the total outflow in the “Ross Embayment” has remained relatively unchanged despite the large internal perturbations, a fact that, points to a stable, not an unstable, system. Study of the third major drainage from the WAIS, into the Ronne Ice Shelf, also suggests that there is no gross discordance between the present velocity vectors and flow tracers in the ice shelf, although the evidence is limited. In the light of the evidence for recent stability, it is difficult to see how climate warming (whether anthropogenic or natural) could trigger a collapse of the WAIS in the next century or two. Thus, I believe that a rapid rise in sea level in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause could only occur if a natural (not induced) collapse of the WAIS were imminent. Based on a concept of pseudo-random collapse once per major glacial cycle, I estimate the chances of that to be on the order of one in a thousand.

scholarly journals Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 4675-4702
Author(s):  
Emily A. Hill ◽  
Sebastian H. R. Rosier ◽  
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson ◽  
Matthew Collins
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of future changes in global mean sea level (ΔGMSL). Mass loss is currently concentrated in regions of warm circumpolar deep water, but it is unclear how ice shelves currently surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters will respond to climatic changes in the future. Studies suggest that warm water could flush the Filchner–Ronne (FR) ice shelf cavity during the 21st century, but the inland ice sheet response to a drastic increase in ice shelf melt rates is poorly known. Here, we use an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification approach to project the GMSL contribution of the FR basin under RCP emissions scenarios, and we assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections. Our probabilistic projections, derived from an extensive sample of the parameter space using a surrogate model, reveal that the FR basin is unlikely to contribute positively to sea level rise by the 23rd century. This is primarily due to the mitigating effect of increased accumulation with warming, which is capable of suppressing ice loss associated with ocean-driven increases in sub-shelf melt. Mass gain (negative ΔGMSL) from the FR basin increases with warming, but uncertainties in these projections also become larger. In the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, ΔGMSL is likely to range from −103 to 26 mm, and this large spread can be apportioned predominantly to uncertainties in parameters driving increases in precipitation (30 %) and sub-shelf melting (44 %). There is potential, within the bounds of our input parameter space, for major collapse and retreat of ice streams feeding the FR ice shelf, and a substantial positive contribution to GMSL (up to approx. 300 mm), but we consider such a scenario to be very unlikely. Adopting uncertainty quantification techniques in future studies will help to provide robust estimates of potential sea level rise and further identify target areas for constraining projections.

scholarly journals Ocean forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill ◽  
Isabel J. Nias ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Nicholas R. Golledge ◽  
Rory J. Bingham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Adaptive Mesh ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 cm and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialisation, we perform three further sets of CMIP5 forced experiments using different parameterisations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient, and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialisation procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 cm and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century.

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