Revisiting Ice Flux and Mass Balance of the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf System Using Multi-Remote-Sensing Datasets, East Antarctica

Due to rapid global warming, the relationship between the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet and rising sea levels are attracting widespread attention. The Lambert–Amery glacial system is the largest drainage system in East Antarctica, and its mass balance has an important influence on the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this paper, the recent ice flux in the Lambert Glacier of the Lambert–Amery system was systematically analyzed based on recently updated remote sensing data. According to Landsat-8 ice velocity data from 2018 to April 2019 and the updated Bedmachine v2 ice thickness dataset in 2021, the contribution of ice flux approximately 140 km downstream from Dome A in the Lambert Glacier area to downstream from the glacier is 8.5 ± 1.9, and the ice flux in the middle of the convergence region is 18.9 ± 2.9. The ice mass input into the Amery ice shelf through the grounding line of the whole glacier is 19.9 ± 1.3. The ice flux output from the mainstream area of the grounding line is 19.3 ± 1.0. Using the annual SMB data of the regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO v2.3) as the quality input, the mass balance of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Lambert Glacier was analyzed. The results show that recent positive accumulation appears in the middle region of the glacier (about 74–78°S, 67–85°E) and the net accumulation of the whole glacier is 2.4 ± 3.5. Although the mass balance of the Lambert Glacier continues to show a positive accumulation, and the positive value in the region is decreasing compared with values obtained in early 2000.

Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0)

Ice-dynamical processes constitute a large uncertainty in future projections of sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change. Improving our understanding of these processes requires ice-sheet models that perform well at simulating both past and future ice-sheet evolution. Here, we present version 2.0 of the ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE, which uses the depth-integrated viscosity approximation (DIVA) to solve the stress balance. We evaluate its performance in a range of benchmark experiments, including simple analytical solutions, as well as both schematic and realistic model intercomparison exercises. IMAU-ICE has adopted recent developments in the numerical treatment of englacial stress and sub-shelf melt near the grounding-line, which result in good performance in experiments concerning grounding-line migration (MISMIP) and buttressing (ABUMIP). This makes it a model that is robust, versatile, and user-friendly, and which will provide a firm basis for (palaeo-)glaciological research in the coming years.

Review article: Existing and potential evidence for Holocene grounding-line retreat and readvance in Antarctica

Widespread existing geological records from above the modern ice-sheet surface and outboard of the current ice margin show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) was much more extensive at the Last Glacial Maximum (~20 ka) than at present. However, whether it was ever smaller than present during the last few millennia, and (if so) by how much, is known only for a few locations because direct evidence lies within or beneath the ice sheet, which is challenging to access. Here, we describe how retreat and readvance (henceforth “readvance”) of AIS grounding lines during the Holocene could be detected and quantified using subglacial bedrock, subglacial sediments, marine sediment cores, relative sea-level (RSL) records, radar data, and ice cores. Of these, only subglacial bedrock and subglacial sediments can provide direct evidence for readvance. Marine archives are of limited utility because readvance commonly covers evidence of earlier retreat. Nevertheless, stratigraphic transitions documenting change in environment may provide support for direct evidence from subglacial records, as can the presence of transgressions in RSL records. With independent age control, past changes in ice structure and flow patterns revealed by radar can be used to infer ice volume changes commensurate with readvance. Since ice cores capture changes in surface mass balance, elevation, and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation that are known to drive grounding-line migration, they also have potential for identifying readvance. A multidisciplinary approach is likely to provide the strongest evidence for or against a smaller-than-present AIS in the Holocene.

Uncertainties in mass balance estimation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet using the input and output method

The input-output method (IOM) is one of the most popular methods of estimating the ice sheet mass balance (MB), with a significant advantage in presenting the dynamics response of ice to climate change. Assessing the uncertainties of the MB estimation using the IOM is crucial to gaining a clear understanding of the Antarctic ice-sheet mass budget. Here, we introduce a framework for assessing the uncertainties in the MB estimation due to the methodological differences in the IOM, the impact of the parameterization and scale effect on the modeled surface mass balance (SMB, input), and the impact of the uncertainties of ice thickness, ice velocity, and grounding line data on ice discharge (D, output). For the assessment of the D’s uncertainty, we present D at a fine scale. Compared with the goal of determining the Antarctic MB within an uncertainty of 15 Gt yr−1, we found that the different strategies employed in the methods cause considerable uncertainties in the annual MB estimation. The uncertainty of the RACMO2.3 SMB caused by its parameterization can reach 20.4 Gt yr−1, while that due to the scale effect is up to 216.7 Gt yr−1. The observation precisions of the MEaSUREs InSAR-based velocity (1–17 m yr−1), the airborne radio-echo sounder thickness (±100 m), and the MEaSUREs InSAR-based grounding line (±100 m) contribute uncertainties of 17.1 Gt yr−1, 10.5 ± 2.7 Gt yr−1 and 8.0~27.8 Gt yr−1 to the D, respectively. However, the D’s uncertainty due to the remarkable ice thickness data gap, which is represented by the thickness difference between the BEDMAP2 and the BedMachine reaches 101.7 Gt yr−1, which indicates its dominant cause of the future D’s uncertainty. In addition, the interannual variability of D caused by the annual changes in the ice velocity and ice thickness are considerable compared with the target uncertainty of 15 Gt yr−1, which cannot be ignored in annual MB estimations.

Deglacial climate and ice sheet evolution of the Ross Embayment, Antarctica

<p>Reconstructing past grounding-line evolution can help inform future sea level projections by constraining marine ice sheet sensitivities to changes in climate. The Ross Embayment, the largest sector of Antarctica, experienced substantial grounding-line retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. However, different interpretations for the timing and spatial pattern of deglacial grounding-line retreat in this region persist, suggesting either very high or low sensitivity to external forcings. Complicating matters is the sparse paleoclimate record, which is limited spatially and temporally. In this thesis, I address these issues by analysing the output of two transient climate simulations in relation to Antarctic ice core and marine sediment records, and performing and analysing the largest ensemble to date of regional ice sheet model simulations of the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. The climate models and paleoclimate proxy records exhibit key differences in the timing, magnitude and duration of millennial-scale climate change events through the deglacial period. Using this diverse set of deglacial climate trajectories as ocean and atmosphere forcings, the ice sheet model ensemble produces a wide range of ice sheet responses, supporting the view that external forcings are the main drivers of past grounding-line retreat in the region. The simulations demonstrate that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, grounding-line position is more sensitive to sub-shelf melt rates as the ocean cavity below the ice shelf expands. Model parameters that control the physical properties of the bed, deformation of the continental shelf, and rheological properties of the ice strongly influence the sensitivity of ice sheets to external forcing. Basin-wide differences in these forcings, driven by oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and spatial heterogeneity of bed properties likely contribute to the asynchronous pattern of retreat in the eastern and western parts of the embayment, as indicated by marine and terrestrial proxy records.</p>

Deglacial climate and ice sheet evolution of the Ross Embayment, Antarctica

<p>Reconstructing past grounding-line evolution can help inform future sea level projections by constraining marine ice sheet sensitivities to changes in climate. The Ross Embayment, the largest sector of Antarctica, experienced substantial grounding-line retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. However, different interpretations for the timing and spatial pattern of deglacial grounding-line retreat in this region persist, suggesting either very high or low sensitivity to external forcings. Complicating matters is the sparse paleoclimate record, which is limited spatially and temporally. In this thesis, I address these issues by analysing the output of two transient climate simulations in relation to Antarctic ice core and marine sediment records, and performing and analysing the largest ensemble to date of regional ice sheet model simulations of the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. The climate models and paleoclimate proxy records exhibit key differences in the timing, magnitude and duration of millennial-scale climate change events through the deglacial period. Using this diverse set of deglacial climate trajectories as ocean and atmosphere forcings, the ice sheet model ensemble produces a wide range of ice sheet responses, supporting the view that external forcings are the main drivers of past grounding-line retreat in the region. The simulations demonstrate that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, grounding-line position is more sensitive to sub-shelf melt rates as the ocean cavity below the ice shelf expands. Model parameters that control the physical properties of the bed, deformation of the continental shelf, and rheological properties of the ice strongly influence the sensitivity of ice sheets to external forcing. Basin-wide differences in these forcings, driven by oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and spatial heterogeneity of bed properties likely contribute to the asynchronous pattern of retreat in the eastern and western parts of the embayment, as indicated by marine and terrestrial proxy records.</p>

Late Cenozoic behaviour of two Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers

<p>Earth’s climate is undergoing dramatic warming that is unprecedented in at least the last ~2000 years. Outlets of the Antarctic ice sheet are experiencing dynamic thinning, terminus retreat and mass loss, however, we are currently unable to accurately predict their future response. The drivers and mechanisms responsible for these observed changes can be better understood by studying the behaviour of outlet glaciers in the geological past. Here, I use cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure dating and numerical glacier modelling to investigate the past configurations and dynamics of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers, in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. Numerical modelling was first applied to understand the present-day and past behaviour of Skelton Glacier. A suite of sensitivity experiments reveal that Skelton Glacier is most susceptible to atmospheric temperature through its affect on basal sliding near the groundingline. Under past climates, large changes occurred in the lower reaches of the glacier, with basal sliding and bedrock erosion predicted in the overdeepened basins during both the Pliocene and Quaternary. Skelton Glacier was likely much shorter and thinner during Pliocene interglacials, with warm-based sliding that extended along most of its length. Informed by the glacier modelling, I applied surface-exposure dating to constrain past fluctuations in the geometry of Skelton Glacier. The lower reaches of the glacier were likely thicker at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), supporting the idea of buttressing by grounded ice in the Ross Sea during glacial periods. The glacier then thinned to near-modern surface elevations by ~5.8 ka before present (BP). Multiple isotope analysis (²⁶Al-¹⁰Be) and exposure-burial modelling indicates that Skelton Glacier has fluctuated between interglacial and glacial configurations probably at orbital frequencies since the Miocene. These data record a total of >10 Ma of exposure and 2.5 Ma of burial. An unexpected outcome is that the average cosmogenic production rate over this time appears to have been at least twice that of today. The long-term dynamics of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers are further explored at Mackay Glacier. Here, geomorphological evidence reveals that glaciers can both erode and preserve bedrock surfaces during the same glacial episode, with basal erosion controlled primarily by ice thickness. Mackay Glacier likely experienced a widespread erosive regime prior to the Quaternary and a polythermal glacier regime during the LGM. Deglaciation following the LGM is constrained with (¹⁰Be) surface-exposure dating at Mackay Glacier. Samples collected at two nunataks, across four transects, reveal glacier thinning of >260 m between the LGM and ~200 years BP. Ice surface lowering was initially gradual, however an episode of rapid thinning is then recorded at ~6.8 ka BP, during a period of relative climatic and oceanic stability. This accelerated surface lowering occurred at a rate commensurate with modern observations of rapid ice sheet thinning, persisted for at least four centuries, and resulted in >180 m of ice loss. Numerical modelling indicates that ice surface drawdown resulted from ‘marine ice sheet instability’ as the grounding-line retreated through a deep glacial trough on the inner continental-shelf. This research provides new geological constraints and quantitative predictions of the past behaviour of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers. The basal conditions and discharge of these glaciers evolved through the Late Cenozoic in response to climate forcing at orbital timescales, but also to topographically-controlled feedbacks at centennial to millennial timescales. Importantly, under enhanced atmospheric warming, these results imply that such outlet glaciers could experience greater ice loss through increased basal sliding and unstable grounding-line retreat into overdeepened basins.</p>

Late Cenozoic behaviour of two Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers

<p>Earth’s climate is undergoing dramatic warming that is unprecedented in at least the last ~2000 years. Outlets of the Antarctic ice sheet are experiencing dynamic thinning, terminus retreat and mass loss, however, we are currently unable to accurately predict their future response. The drivers and mechanisms responsible for these observed changes can be better understood by studying the behaviour of outlet glaciers in the geological past. Here, I use cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure dating and numerical glacier modelling to investigate the past configurations and dynamics of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers, in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. Numerical modelling was first applied to understand the present-day and past behaviour of Skelton Glacier. A suite of sensitivity experiments reveal that Skelton Glacier is most susceptible to atmospheric temperature through its affect on basal sliding near the groundingline. Under past climates, large changes occurred in the lower reaches of the glacier, with basal sliding and bedrock erosion predicted in the overdeepened basins during both the Pliocene and Quaternary. Skelton Glacier was likely much shorter and thinner during Pliocene interglacials, with warm-based sliding that extended along most of its length. Informed by the glacier modelling, I applied surface-exposure dating to constrain past fluctuations in the geometry of Skelton Glacier. The lower reaches of the glacier were likely thicker at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), supporting the idea of buttressing by grounded ice in the Ross Sea during glacial periods. The glacier then thinned to near-modern surface elevations by ~5.8 ka before present (BP). Multiple isotope analysis (²⁶Al-¹⁰Be) and exposure-burial modelling indicates that Skelton Glacier has fluctuated between interglacial and glacial configurations probably at orbital frequencies since the Miocene. These data record a total of >10 Ma of exposure and 2.5 Ma of burial. An unexpected outcome is that the average cosmogenic production rate over this time appears to have been at least twice that of today. The long-term dynamics of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers are further explored at Mackay Glacier. Here, geomorphological evidence reveals that glaciers can both erode and preserve bedrock surfaces during the same glacial episode, with basal erosion controlled primarily by ice thickness. Mackay Glacier likely experienced a widespread erosive regime prior to the Quaternary and a polythermal glacier regime during the LGM. Deglaciation following the LGM is constrained with (¹⁰Be) surface-exposure dating at Mackay Glacier. Samples collected at two nunataks, across four transects, reveal glacier thinning of >260 m between the LGM and ~200 years BP. Ice surface lowering was initially gradual, however an episode of rapid thinning is then recorded at ~6.8 ka BP, during a period of relative climatic and oceanic stability. This accelerated surface lowering occurred at a rate commensurate with modern observations of rapid ice sheet thinning, persisted for at least four centuries, and resulted in >180 m of ice loss. Numerical modelling indicates that ice surface drawdown resulted from ‘marine ice sheet instability’ as the grounding-line retreated through a deep glacial trough on the inner continental-shelf. This research provides new geological constraints and quantitative predictions of the past behaviour of Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers. The basal conditions and discharge of these glaciers evolved through the Late Cenozoic in response to climate forcing at orbital timescales, but also to topographically-controlled feedbacks at centennial to millennial timescales. Importantly, under enhanced atmospheric warming, these results imply that such outlet glaciers could experience greater ice loss through increased basal sliding and unstable grounding-line retreat into overdeepened basins.</p>

Holocene thinning history of David Glacier, Antarctica

<p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a significant component of the Earth System, modulating Earth‘s sea level and climate. Present day and projected ice mass losses from Antarctica are of paramount concern to human populations in low-lying communities around the world. Ocean freshening from future ice discharge events also has the potential to destabilise global climate patterns. Over 40 years of satellite observations have tracked changes in ice mass, extent and thickness in Antarctica. However, ice sheets respond on timescales that range from annual to millennial, and a geologic perspective is needed to fully understand ice sheet response on timescales longer than a few decades. This research seeks to provide an improved understanding of Antarcticas future by constraining its past. I focus on one of the largest outlet glaciers in Antarctica, the David Glacier/Drygalski Ice Tongue system which drains the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, dissects the Transantarctic Mountains and discharges into the Ross Sea. I seek to answer two questions; (1) what is the timing and nature of David Glacier thinning since the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 20,000 years ago, and (2) what physical processes were responsible for the observed thinning? I answer these questions by mapping the terrestrial and marine geomorphology along the former margins and seaward extension of David Glacier, and by using surface exposure dating of bedrock and glacial erratics to constrain the timing of glacier thinning. I then use a numerical flowline model to identify the processes that drove glacier thinning and retreat. Surface exposure ages from bedrock and glacial erratics at field sites both upstream and downstream of the modern grounding line reveal that David Glacier thinned for two millennia during the mid-Holocene. Near the coast, this thinning occurred at ∼6.5 kya at a rapid rate of up to 2 m/yr. Upstream from the grounding line, the thinning was more gradual but occurred simultaneously with thinning downstream. The timing of glacial thinning at David Glacier correlates with thinning events at other glaciers in the region and is consistent with offshore marine geological records. To identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed thinning of David Glacier, I conduct numerical model sensitivity experiments along a 1,600 km flowline, extending from the ice sheet interior to the continental shelf edge in the western Ross Sea. Offshore, the glacier flowline follows the Drygalski Trough, where it crosses numerous grounding zone wedges of various sizes. The flowline and prescribed ice shelf width is guided by the orientation and distribution of mega-scale glacial lineations as well as overall sea floor bathymetry. I explore the response of a stable, expanded David Glacier to the effects of increasing sub-ice shelf melt rates, and decreasing lateral buttressing which may have occurred as grounded ice in the Ross Sea migrated southward of the David Glacier. These forcings were also combined to explore potential feedbacks associated with Marine Ice Sheet Instability. This modelling demonstrates that David Glacier likely underwent rapid thinning over a period of ∼500 years as the grounding line retreated to a prominent sill at the mouth of David Fjord. After a period of ∼ 5 ka of stability, a second period of grounding line retreat in the model leads to the glacier reaching its modern configuration. This simulated two-phase grounding line retreat compares well with onshore geologically constrained thinning events at two sites (Mt. Kring and Hughes Bluff), both in terms of timing and rates of past glacier thinning. This retreat pattern can be forced by either increased ice shelf melting or reduced buttressing, but when combined, lower melt rates and less lateral buttressing is required to match onshore geologic constraints. Together, the findings in this thesis provide new data to constrain the past behaviour of a significant portion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and critical insights into the mechanisms that control ice sheet thinning and retreat. Incorporation of these constraints and improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving glacier thinning and grounding line retreat will ultimately improve continental scale ice sheet models which are used to project the future behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its influence on global sea level.</p>