Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Gómara ◽  
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Teresa Losada ◽  
Irene Polo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Marine Food Web ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>Tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, owing to observational data scarcity and bias-related issues in earth system models, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. With recently released reanalysis-nudged global marine ecosystem simulations, these constraints can be sidestepped, allowing full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) constitute a superlative predictability source for tropical Pacific marine yields, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to 2 years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby Atlantic SSTs modulate upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.</p>

scholarly journals Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Gómara ◽  
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Teresa Losada ◽  
Irene Polo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Marine Food Web ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractTropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, owing to observational data scarcity and bias-related issues in earth system models, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. With recently released reanalysis-nudged global marine ecosystem simulations, these constraints can be sidestepped, allowing full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) constitute a superlative predictability source for tropical Pacific marine yields, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to 2 years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby Atlantic SSTs modulate upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.

scholarly journals Impact of Equatorial Atlantic Variability on ENSO Predictive Skill

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleftheria Exarchou ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Maria Belén Rodrıguez de Fonseca ◽  
Teresa Losada Doval ◽  
Irene Polo Sanchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleftheria Exarchou ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Teresa Losada ◽  
Irene Polo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.

scholarly journals Interactions between marine biota and ENSO: a conceptual model analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Heinemann ◽  
A. Timmermann ◽  
U. Feudel
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Radiation Force ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Continuation Methods ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Marine Biota ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract. We develop a conceptual coupled atmosphere-ocean-ecosystem model for the tropical Pacific to investigate the interaction between marine biota and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Ocean and atmosphere are represented by a two-box model for the equatorial Pacific cold tongue and the warm pool, including a simplified mixed layer scheme. Marine biota are represented by a three-component (nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) ecosystem model. The atmosphere-ocean model exhibits an oscillatory state which qualitatively captures the main physics of ENSO. During an ENSO cycle, the variation of nutrient upwelling, and, to a small extent, the variation of photosynthetically available radiation force an ecosystem oscillation. The simplified ecosystem in turn, due to the effect of phytoplankton on the absorption of shortwave radiation in the water column, leads to (1) a warming of the tropical Pacific, (2) a reduction of the ENSO amplitude, and (3) a prolongation of the ENSO period. We qualitatively investigate these bio-physical coupling mechanisms using continuation methods. It is demonstrated that bio-physical coupling may play a considerable role in modulating ENSO variability.

ITCZ rather than ENSO signature for abrupt climate changes across the tropical Pacific?

2009 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Leduc ◽  
Laurence Vidal ◽  
Kazuyo Tachikawa ◽  
Edouard Bard
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Last Glacial Period ◽  
Sedimentary Records ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractLatitudinal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), analogous to its present-day seasonal shifts, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability both potentially impacted rainfall changes at the millennial timescale during the last glacial period. In this study we compare tropical Pacific sedimentary records of paleoprecipitation to decipher which climate mechanism was responsible for the past rainfall changes. We find that latitudinal movements of the ITCZ are consistent with the observed rainfall patterns, challenging the ENSO hypothesis for explaining the rapid rainfall changes at low latitudes. The ITCZ-related mechanism appears to reflect large-scale atmospheric rearrangements over the tropical belt, with a pronounced Heinrich–Dansgaard/Oeschger signature. This observation is coherent with the simulated tropical rainfall anomalies induced by a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in modeling experiments.

scholarly journals The assessment of a global marine ecosystem model on the basis of emergent properties and ecosystem function: a case study with ERSEM

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. de Mora ◽  
M. Butenschön ◽  
J. I. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Function ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Quantitative Metrics ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
Scale Properties ◽  
Meta Analyses

Abstract. Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model–data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation indicates that the model may have an appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large-scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time.A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem.These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

scholarly journals The role of ecosystem function and emergent relationships in the assessment of global marine ecosystem models: a case study with ERSEM

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 6095-6141
Author(s):  
L. de Mora ◽  
M. Butenschön ◽  
J. I. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Function ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Ecosystem Models ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
Scale Properties ◽  
Meta Analyses

Abstract. Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation is a strong indication that the model has a appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

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