scholarly journals Multi-objective optimisation of a rock coast evolution model with cosmogenic <sup>10</sup>Be analysis for the quantification of long-term cliff retreat rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1505-1529
Author(s):  
Jennifer R. Shadrick ◽  
Martin D. Hurst ◽  
Matthew D. Piggott ◽  
Bethany G. Hebditch ◽  
Alexander J. Seal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Evolution ◽  
Radionuclide Production ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Cosmogenic Radionuclide ◽  
Cliff Retreat

Abstract. This paper presents a methodology that uses site-specific topographic and cosmogenic 10Be data to perform multi-objective model optimisation of a coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model. Optimal parameter estimation of the coupled model minimises discrepancies between model simulations and measured data to reveal the most likely history of rock coast development. This new capability allows a time series of cliff retreat rates to be quantified for rock coast sites over millennial timescales. Without such methods, long-term cliff retreat cannot be understood well, as historical records only cover the past ∼150 years. This is the first study that has (1) applied a process-based coastal evolution model to quantify long-term cliff retreat rates for real rock coast sites and (2) coupled cosmogenic radionuclide analysis with a process-based model. The Dakota optimisation software toolkit is used as an interface between the coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model and optimisation libraries. This framework enables future applications of datasets associated with a range of rock coast settings to be explored. Process-based coastal evolution models simplify erosional processes and, as a result, often have equifinality properties, for example that similar topography develops via different evolutionary trajectories. Our results show that coupling modelled topography with modelled 10Be concentrations can reduce equifinality in model outputs. Furthermore, our results reveal that multi-objective optimisation is essential in limiting model equifinality caused by parameter correlation to constrain best-fit model results for real-world sites. Results from two UK sites indicate that the rates of cliff retreat over millennial timescales are primarily driven by the rates of relative sea level rise. These findings provide strong motivation for further studies that investigate the effect of past and future relative sea level rise on cliff retreat at other rock coast sites globally.

scholarly journals Multi-objective optimisation of a rock coast evolution model with cosmogenic <sup>10</sup>Be analysis for the quantification of long-term cliff retreat rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer R. Shadrick ◽  
Martin D. Hurst ◽  
Matthew D. Piggott ◽  
Bethany G. Hebditch ◽  
Alexander J. Seal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Evolution ◽  
Radionuclide Production ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Cosmogenic Radionuclide ◽  
Cliff Retreat

Abstract. This paper presents a methodology that uses site-specific topographic and cosmogenic 10Be data to perform multi-objective model optimisation of a coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model. Optimal parameter estimation of the coupled model minimises discrepancies between model simulations and measured data to reveal the most likely history of rock coast development. This new capability allows for a time-series of cliff retreat rates to be quantified for rock coast sites over millennial timescales. This is the first study that has 1) applied a process-based coastal evolution model to quantify long-term cliff retreat rates for real, rock coast sites, and 2) coupled cosmogenic radionuclide analysis with a process-based model. The Dakota optimisation software toolkit is used as an interface between the coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model and optimisation libraries. This framework enables future applications of datasets associated with a range of rock coast settings to be explored. Process-based coastal evolution models simplify erosional processes and, as a result, often have equifinality properties, for example, that similar topography develops via different evolutionary trajectories. Our results show that coupling modelled topography with modelled 10Be concentrations can reduce equifinality in model outputs. Furthermore, our results reveal that multi-objective optimisation is essential in limiting model equifinality caused by parameter correlation to constrain best-fit model results for real-world sites. Results from two UK sites indicate that the rates of cliff retreat over millennial timescales are primarily driven by the rates of relative sea level rise. These findings provide strong motivation for further studies that investigate the effect of past and future relative sea level rise on cliff retreat at other rock coast sites globally.

scholarly journals Stratigraphy and sedimentology of a basement-onlapping shallow marine sandstone succession, the Charcot Bugt Formation, Middle–Upper Jurassic, East Greenland

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 893-930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Larsen ◽  
Stefan Piasecki ◽  
Finn Surlyk
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Upper Jurassic ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Shallow Marine ◽  
East Greenland ◽  
Depositional Systems

A rocky shore developed in early Middle Jurassic times by transgression of the crystalline basement in Milne Land at the western margin of the East Greenland rift basin. The basement is onlapped by shallow marine sandstones of the Charcot Bugt Formation, locally with a thin fluvial unit at the base. The topography of the onlap surface suggests that a relative sea-level rise of at least 300 m took place in Early Bathonian – Middle Oxfordian times. The sea-level rise was punctuated by relative stillstands and falls during which progradation of the shoreline took place. Palynological data tied to the Boreal ammonite stratigraphy have greatly improved time resolution within the Charcot Bugt Formation, and the Jurassic succession in Milne Land can now be understood in terms of genetically-related depositional systems with a proximal to distal decrease in grain size. The sequence stratigraphic interpretation suggests that translation of the depositional systems governed by relative sea-level changes resulted in stacking of sandstone-dominated falling stage deposits in the eastern, basinwards parts of Milne Land, whereas thick, remarkably coarsegrained transgressive systems tract deposits formed along the western basin margin. The bulk of the Charcot Bugt Formation consists of stacked sandstone-dominated shoreface units that prograded during highstands. The overall aggradational to backstepping stacking pattern recognised in the Charcot Bugt Formation is comparable to that in the contemporaneous Pelion Formation of the Jameson Land Basin and in correlative units of the mid-Norway shelf and the Northern North Sea. We suggest that the long-term evolution of the depositional systems may have been controlled by long-term eustatic rise acting in concert with relative sea-level changes reflecting regionally contemporaneous phases of rift initiation, climax and gradual cessation of rifting.

scholarly journals No Landward Movement: Examining 80 years of population migration and shoreline change in Louisiana

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hauer ◽  
Dean Hardy ◽  
Deepak R Mishra ◽  
J Scott Pippin
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Population Changes ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
The One

Louisiana lost nearly 5,000 km2 of its coastal land area due to relative sea level rise (including local, regional, and global factors driving relative sea level change) since 1932, mirroring both the hazards associated with sea level rise and the time horizons of sea level rise impacts expected this century. This represents an opportunity to examine the relationship between long-term population changes and shoreline change. Based on detailed land change data for the period 1932–2010 and a small area population estimation technique for the period 1940–2010, we examine intra-parish population changes in relation to shoreline changes for the one million plus residents living in the ten coastal parishes of Louisiana. We find that since 1940, only two of the ten coastal parishes exhibited landward population movement, which we define as movement perpendicular to the shoreline, exceeding 1 km. Three parishes exhibited seaward population movement in excess of 1 km. Overall, we find very little net intra-parish landward population movement for the region. Our findings suggest that coastal Louisiana’s historical population has not moved in concert with observed shoreline encroachment. We also find a potential tipping point related to population migration when a neighborhood loses at least 50% of its land area. Our findings suggest that this lack of landward population movement could be attributable to either localized adaptation strategies or migrations to other landward areas.

Submergence, nutrient enrichment, and tropical storm impacts on Spartina alterniflora in the microtidal northern Gulf of Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 644 ◽  
pp. 33-45
Author(s):  
JM Hill ◽  
PS Petraitis ◽  
KL Heck
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spartina Alterniflora ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Hurricane Disturbance ◽  
Submergence Stress ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise

Salt marshes face chronic anthropogenic impacts such as relative sea level rise and eutrophication, as well as acute disturbances from tropical storms that can affect the productivity of these important communities. However, it is not well understood how marshes already subjected to eutrophication and sea level rise will respond to added effects of episodic storms such as hurricanes. We examined the interactive effects of nutrient addition, sea level rise, and a hurricane on the growth, biomass accumulation, and resilience of the saltmarsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora in the Gulf of Mexico. In a microtidal marsh, we manipulated nutrient levels and submergence using marsh organs in which cordgrasses were planted at differing intertidal elevations and measured the impacts of Hurricane Isaac, which occurred during the experiment. Prior to the hurricane, grasses at intermediate and high elevations increased in abundance. After the hurricane, all treatments lost approximately 50% of their shoots, demonstrating that added nutrients and elevation did not provide resistance to hurricane disturbance. At the end of the experiment, only the highest elevations had been resilient to the hurricane, with increased above- and belowground growth. Added nutrients provided a modest increase in above- and belowground growth, but only at the highest elevations, suggesting that only elevation will enhance resilience to hurricane disturbance. These results empirically demonstrate that S. alterniflora in microtidal locations already subjected to submergence stress is less able to recover from storm disturbance and suggests we may be underestimating the loss of northern Gulf Coast marshes due to relative sea level rise.

scholarly journals A Holistic Framework for Evaluating Adaptation Approaches to Coastal Hazards and Sea Level Rise: A Case Study from Imperial Beach, California

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1324
Author(s):  
David Revell ◽  
Phil King ◽  
Jeff Giliam ◽  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Sarah Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Over Time

Sea level rise increases community risks from erosion, wave flooding, and tides. Current management typically protects existing development and infrastructure with coastal armoring. These practices ignore long-term impacts to public trust coastal recreation and natural ecosystems. This adaptation framework models physical responses to the public beach and private upland for each adaptation strategy over time, linking physical changes in widths to damages, economic costs, and benefits from beach recreation and nature using low-lying Imperial Beach, California, as a case study. Available coastal hazard models identified community vulnerabilities, and local risk communication engagement prioritized five adaptation approaches—armoring, nourishment, living shorelines, groins, and managed retreat. This framework innovates using replacement cost as a proxy for ecosystem services normally not valued and examines a managed retreat policy approach using a public buyout and rent-back option. Specific methods and economic values used in the analysis need more research and innovation, but the framework provides a scalable methodology to guide coastal adaptation planning everywhere. Case study results suggest that coastal armoring provides the least public benefits over time. Living shoreline approaches show greater public benefits, while managed retreat, implemented sooner, provides the best long-term adaptation strategy to protect community identity and public trust resources.

scholarly journals Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bâki Iz ◽  
C. K. Shum ◽  
C. Zhang ◽  
C. Y. Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Vertical Crustal Motion ◽  
Gps Time Series

AbstractThis study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

Relative sea-level rise and climate change over the last 1500 years

Terra Nova ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.C. Varekamp ◽  
E. Thomas ◽  
O. Plassche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise
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