Seasonal logging, process response, and geomorphic work
Abstract. Deforestation is a prominent anthropogenic cause of erosive overland flow and slope instability, boosting rates of soil erosion and concomitant sediment flux. Conventional methods of gauging or estimating post-logging sediment flux focus on annual timescales, but potentially overlook important geomorphic responses on shorter time scales immediately following timber harvest. Sediments fluxes are commonly estimated from linear regression of intermittent measurements of water and sediment discharge using sediment rating curves (SRCs). However, these often unsatisfactorily reproduce non-linear effects such as discharge-load hystereses. We resolve such important dynamics from non-parametric Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) of high-frequency (3 min) measurements of stream discharge and sediment concentrations in similar-sized (~ 0.1 km2) forested Chilean catchments that were logged during either the rainy or the dry season. The method of QRF builds on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, and combines quantile regression with repeated random sub-sampling of both cases and predictors. The algorithm belongs to the family of decision-tree classifiers, which allow quantifying relevant predictors in high-dimensional parameter space. We find that, where no logging occurred, ~ 80% of the total sediment load was transported during rare but high magnitude runoff events during only 5% of the monitoring period. The variability of sediment flux of these rare events spans four orders of magnitude. In particular dry-season logging dampened the role of these rare, extreme sediment-transport events by increasing load efficiency during more moderate events. We show that QRFs outperforms traditional SRCs in terms of accurately simulating short-term dynamics of sediment flux, and conclude that QRF may reliably support forest management recommendations by providing robust simulations of post-logging response of water and sediment discharge at high temporal resolution.