scholarly journals Assessment of the data assimilation framework for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System v0.1 and impacts on forecasts of convective storms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivette H. Banos ◽  
Will D. Mayfield ◽  
Guoqing Ge ◽  
Luiz F. Sapucci ◽  
Jacob R. Carley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is currently under development and aims to replace the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational suite of regional and convective scale modeling systems in the next upgrade. In order to achieve skillful forecasts comparable to the current operational suite, each component of the RRFS needs to be configured through exhaustive testing and evaluation. The current data assimilation component uses the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In this study, various data assimilation algorithms and configurations in GSI are assessed for their impacts on RRFS analyses and forecasts of a squall line over Oklahoma on 4 May 2020. Results show that a baseline RRFS run without data assimilation is able to represent the observed convection, but with stronger cells and large location errors. With data assimilation, these errors are reduced, especially in the 4 and 6 h forecasts using 75 % of the ensemble background error covariance (BEC) and with the supersaturation removal function activated in GSI. Decreasing the vertical ensemble localization radius in the first 10 layers of the hybrid analysis results in overall less skillful forecasts. Convection and precipitation are overforecast in most forecast hours when using planetary boundary layer pseudo-observations, but the root mean square error and bias of the 2 h forecast of 2 m dew point temperature are reduced by 1.6 K during the afternoon hours. Lighter hourly accumulated precipitation is predicted better when using 100 % ensemble BEC in the first 4 h forecast, but heavier hourly accumulated precipitation is better predicted with 75 % ensemble BEC. Our results provide insight into current capabilities of the RRFS data assimilation system and identify configurations that should be considered as candidates for the first version of RRFS.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Multiscale GSI-Based EnKF and 3DVar Data Assimilation Using Radar and Conventional Observations for Midlatitude Convective-Scale Precipitation Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (8) ◽  
pp. 3087-3108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Johnson ◽  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Jacob R. Carley ◽  
Louis J. Wicker ◽  
Christopher Karstens
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Multiscale Analysis ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Convective Scale

Abstract A GSI-based data assimilation (DA) system, including three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVar) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is extended to the multiscale assimilation of both meso- and synoptic-scale observation networks and convective-scale radar reflectivity and velocity observations. EnKF and 3DVar are systematically compared in this multiscale context to better understand the impacts of differences between the DA techniques on the analyses at multiple scales and the subsequent convective-scale precipitation forecasts. Averaged over 10 diverse cases, 8-h precipitation forecasts initialized using GSI-based EnKF are more skillful than those using GSI-based 3DVar, both with and without storm-scale radar DA. The advantage from radar DA persists for ~5 h using EnKF, but only ~1 h using 3DVar. A case study of an upscale growing MCS is also examined. The better EnKF-initialized forecast is attributed to more accurate analyses of both the mesoscale environment and the storm-scale features. The mesoscale location and structure of a warm front is more accurately analyzed using EnKF than 3DVar. Furthermore, storms in the EnKF multiscale analysis are maintained during the subsequent forecast period. However, storms in the 3DVar multiscale analysis are not maintained and generate excessive cold pools. Therefore, while the EnKF forecast with radar DA remains better than the forecast without radar DA throughout the forecast period, the 3DVar forecast quality is degraded by radar DA after the first hour. Diagnostics revealed that the inferior analysis at mesoscales and storm scales for the 3DVar is primarily attributed to the lack of flow dependence and cross-variable correlation, respectively, in the 3DVar static background error covariance.

scholarly journals The “ABC-DA system” (v1.4): a variational data assimilation system for convective scale assimilation research with a study of the impact of a balance constraint

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross Noel Bannister
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Error Covariance Matrix ◽  
Background Error Covariance ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. Following the development of the simplified atmospheric convective-scale "toy" model (the ABC model, named after its three key parameters: the pure gravity wave frequency, A, the controller of the acoustic wave speed, B, and the constant of proportionality between pressure and density perturbations, C), this paper introduces its associated variational data assimilation system, ABC-DA. The purpose of ABC-DA is to permit quick and efficient research into data assimilation methods suitable for convective scale systems. The system can also be used as an aid to teach and demonstrate data assimilation principles. ABC-DA is flexible, configurable and is efficient enough to be run on a personal computer. The system can run a number of assimilation methods (currently 3DVar and 3DFGAT have been implemented), with user configurable observation networks. Observation operators for direct observations and wind speeds are part of the system, although these can be expanded relatively easily. A key feature of any data assimilation system is how it specifies the background error covariance matrix. ABC-DA uses a control variable transform method to allow this to be done efficiently. This version of ABC-DA mirrors many operational configurations, by modelling multivariate error covariances with uncorrelated control parameters, and spatial error covariances with special uncorrelated spatial patterns separately for each parameter. The software developed (amongst other things) does model runs, calibration tasks associated with the background error covariance matrix, testing and diagnostic tasks, single data assimilation runs, multi-cycle assimilation/forecast experiments, and has associated visualisation software. As a demonstration, the system is used to tackle a scientific question concerning the role of geostrophic balance (GB) to model background error covariances between mass and wind fields. This question arises because, although GB is a very useful mechanism that is successfully exploited in larger scale assimilation systems, its use is questionable at convective scales due to the typically larger Rossby numbers where GB is not so relevant. A series of identical twin experiments is done in cycled assimilation configurations. One experiment exploits GB to represent mass-wind covariances in a mirror of an operational set-up (with use of an additional vertical regression (VR) step, as used operationally). This experiment performs badly where assimilation error accumulates over time. Two further experiments are done: one that does not use GB, and another that does but without the VR step. Turning off GB impairs the performance, and turning off VR improves the performance in general. It is concluded that there is scope to further improve the way that the background error covariance matrices are calibrated, with some directions discussed.

scholarly journals The ABC-DA system (v1.4): a variational data assimilation system for convective-scale assimilation research with a study of the impact of a balance constraint

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 3789-3816
Author(s):  
Ross Noel Bannister
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Error Covariance Matrix ◽  
Background Error Covariance ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. Following the development of the simplified atmospheric convective-scale “toy” model (the ABC model, named after its three key parameters: the pure gravity wave frequency A, the controller of the acoustic wave speed B, and the constant of proportionality between pressure and density perturbations C), this paper introduces its associated variational data assimilation system, ABC-DA. The purpose of ABC-DA is to permit quick and efficient research into data assimilation methods suitable for convective-scale systems. The system can also be used as an aid to teach and demonstrate data assimilation principles. ABC-DA is flexible and configurable, and is efficient enough to be run on a personal computer. The system can run a number of assimilation methods (currently 3DVar and 3DFGAT have been implemented), with user configurable observation networks. Observation operators for direct observations and wind speeds are part of the current system, and these can, for example, be expanded relatively easily to include operators for Doppler winds. A key feature of any data assimilation system is how it specifies the background error covariance matrix. ABC-DA uses a control variable transform method to allow this to be done efficiently. This version of ABC-DA mirrors many operational configurations by modelling multivariate error covariances with uncorrelated control parameters, each with special uncorrelated spatial patterns. The software developed performs (amongst other things) model runs, calibration tasks associated with the background error covariance matrix, testing and diagnostic tasks, single data assimilation runs, and multi-cycle assimilation/forecast experiments, and it also has associated visualisation software. As a demonstration, the system is used to tackle a scientific question concerning the role of geostrophic balance (GB) to model background error covariances between mass and wind fields. This question arises because although GB is a very useful mechanism that is successfully exploited in larger-scale assimilation systems, its use is questionable at convective scales due to the typically larger Rossby numbers where GB is not so relevant. A series of identical twin experiments is done in cycled assimilation configurations. One experiment exploits GB to represent mass–wind covariances in a mirror of an operational set-up (with use of an additional vertical regression (VR) step, as used operationally). This experiment performs badly where error accumulates over time. Two further experiments are done: one that does not use GB and another that does but without the VR step. Turning off GB impairs the performance, and turning off VR improves the performance in general. It is concluded that there is scope to further improve the way that the background error covariance matrices are represented at convective scale. Ideas for further possible developments of ABC-DA are discussed.

scholarly journals Background Error in WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
First Time

WRF model have been tuned and tested over Georgia’s territory for years. First time in Georgia theprocess of data assimilation in Numerical weather prediction is developing. This work presents how forecasterror statistics appear in the data assimilation problem through the background error covariance matrix – B, wherethe variances and correlations associated with model forecasts are estimated. Results of modeling of backgrounderror covariance matrix for control variables using WRF model over Georgia with desired domain configurationare discussed and presented. The modeling was implemented in two different 3DVAR systems (WRFDA andGSI) and results were checked by pseudo observation benchmark cases using also default global and regional BEmatrixes. The mathematical and physical properties of the covariances are also reviewed.

Development of Convective-Scale Static Background Error Covariance within GSI-Based Hybrid EnVar System for Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongming Wang ◽  
Xuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Background Error ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
Background Error Covariance ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Horizontal Momentum ◽  
Reflectivity Data ◽  
Static Background

AbstractA convective-scale static background-error covariance (BEC) matrix is further developed to include the capability of direct reflectivity assimilation and evaluated within the GSI-based 3-dimensional variational (3DVar) and hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) methods. Specific developments are summarized as follows: 1) Control variables (CVs) are extended to include reflectivity, vertical velocity, and all hydrometeor types. Various horizontal momentum and moisture CV options are included. 2) Cross-correlations between all CVs are established. 3) A storm intensity-dependent binning method is adopted to separately calculate static error matrices for clear-air and storms with varying intensities. The resultant static BEC matrices are simultaneously applied at proper locations guided by the observed reflectivity. 4) The EnVar is extended to adaptively incorporate static BECs based on the quality of ensemble covariances.Evaluation and examination of the new static BECs are first performed on the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City supercell. Detailed diagnostics and 3DVar examinations suggest zonal/meridian winds and pseudo-relative humidity are selected horizontal momentum and moisture CVs for direct reflectivity assimilation, respectively; inclusion of cross-correlations favors to spinup and maintain the analyzed storms; application of binning improves characteristics and persistence of the simulated storm. Relative to an experiment using the full ensemble BECs (Exp-PureEnVar), incorporating static BECs in hybrid EnVar reduces spinup time and better analyzes reflectivity distributions while the background ensemble is deficient in sampling errors. Compared to both pure 3DVar and Exp-PureEnVar, hybrid EnVar better predicts reflectivity distributions and better maintains strong mesocyclone. Further examination through the 20 May 2013 Oklahoma supercells confirms these results and additionally demonstrates the effectiveness of adaptive hybridization.

scholarly journals Source backtracking for dust storm emission inversion using adjoint method: case study of northeast China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianbing Jin ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
Hong Liao ◽  
Arnold Heemink ◽  
Richard Kranenburg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Dust Storm ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Trace Back ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Sensitivity Method

Abstract. Emission inversion using data assimilation fundamentally relies on having the correct assumptions on the emission background error covariance. A perfect covariance accounts for the uncertainty based on prior knowledge, and is able to explain differences between model simulations and observations. In practice, emission uncertainties are constructed empirically, hence a partially unrepresentative covariance is unavoidable. Concerning its complex parameterization, dust emissions are a typical example where the uncertainty could be induced from many underlying inputs, e.g., information on soil composition and moisture, landcover and erosive wind velocity, and these can hardly be taken into account together. This paper describes how an adjoint model can be used to detect errors in the emission uncertainty assumptions. This adjoint based sensitivity method could serve as a supplement of a data assimilation inverse modeling system to trace back the error sources, in case that large observation-minus-simulation residues remain after assimilation based on empirical background covariance. The method follows on application of a data assimilation emission inversion for an extreme severe dust storm over East Asia (Jin et al., 2019b). The assimilation system successfully resolved observation-minus-simulation errors using satellite AOD observations in most of the dust-affected regions. However, a large underestimation of dust in northeast China remained despite the fact the assimilated measurements indicated severe dust plumes there. An adjoint implementation of our dust simulation model is then used to detect the most likely source region for these unresolved dust loads. The backward modeling points to the Horqin desert as source region, which was indicated as a non-source region by the existing emission scheme. The reference emission and uncertainty are then reconstructed over the Horqin desert by assuming higher surface erodibility. After the emission reconstruction, the emission inversion is performed again and the posterior dust simulations and reality are now in much closer harmony. Based on our results, it is advised that emission sources in dust transport models include Horqin desert as a more active source region.

Reducing TC Position Uncertainty in an Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: A Case Study of Typhoon Fanapi (2010)

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 561-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuan-Jen Lin ◽  
Shu-Chih Yang ◽  
Shuyi S. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Position Uncertainty ◽  
Background Error Covariance ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Ensemble-based data assimilation (EDA) has been used for tropical cyclone (TC) analysis and prediction with some success. However, the TC position spread determines the structure of the TC-related background error covariance and affects the performance of EDA. With an idealized experiment and a real TC case study, it is demonstrated that observations in the core region cannot be optimally assimilated when the TC position spread is large. To minimize the negative impact from large position uncertainty, a TC-centered EDA approach is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–local ensemble transform Kalman filter (WRF-LETKF) assimilation system. The impact of TC-centered EDA on TC analysis and prediction of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) is evaluated. Using WRF Model nested grids with 4-km grid spacing in the innermost domain, the focus is on EDA using dropsonde data from the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific field campaign. The results show that the TC structure in the background mean state is improved and that unrealistically large ensemble spread can be alleviated. The characteristic horizontal scale in the background error covariance is smaller and narrower compared to those derived from the conventional EDA approach. Storm-scale corrections are improved using dropsonde data, which is more favorable for TC development. The analysis using the TC-centered EDA is in better agreement with independent observations. The improved analysis ameliorates model shock and improves the track forecast during the first 12 h and landfall at 72 h. The impact on intensity prediction is mixed with a better minimum sea level pressure and overestimated peak winds.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone with an Ensemble Kalman Filter in a Chemistry–Climate Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (11) ◽  
pp. 3389-3404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Milewski ◽  
Michel S. Bourqui
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Error Covariance Matrix ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Analysis Error

Abstract A new stratospheric chemical–dynamical data assimilation system was developed, based upon an ensemble Kalman filter coupled with a Chemistry–Climate Model [i.e., the intermediate-complexity general circulation model Fast Stratospheric Ozone Chemistry (IGCM-FASTOC)], with the aim to explore the potential of chemical–dynamical coupling in stratospheric data assimilation. The system is introduced here in a context of a perfect-model, Observing System Simulation Experiment. The system is found to be sensitive to localization parameters, and in the case of temperature (ozone), assimilation yields its best performance with horizontal and vertical decorrelation lengths of 14 000 km (5600 km) and 70 km (14 km). With these localization parameters, the observation space background-error covariance matrix is underinflated by only 5.9% (overinflated by 2.1%) and the observation-error covariance matrix by only 1.6% (0.5%), which makes artificial inflation unnecessary. Using optimal localization parameters, the skills of the system in constraining the ensemble-average analysis error with respect to the true state is tested when assimilating synthetic Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) retrievals of temperature alone and ozone alone. It is found that in most cases background-error covariances produced from ensemble statistics are able to usefully propagate information from the observed variable to other ones. Chemical–dynamical covariances, and in particular ozone–wind covariances, are essential in constraining the dynamical fields when assimilating ozone only, as the radiation in the stratosphere is too slow to transfer ozone analysis increments to the temperature field over the 24-h forecast window. Conversely, when assimilating temperature, the chemical–dynamical covariances are also found to help constrain the ozone field, though to a much lower extent. The uncertainty in forecast/analysis, as defined by the variability in the ensemble, is large compared to the analysis error, which likely indicates some amount of noise in the covariance terms, while also reducing the risk of filter divergence.

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