scholarly journals Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 547-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. M. Firoz ◽  
Alexandra Nauditt ◽  
Manfred Fink ◽  
Lars Ribbe
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Central Vietnam

Abstract. Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

scholarly journals Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in Central Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. M Firoz ◽  
Alexandra Nauditt ◽  
Manfred Fink ◽  
Lars Ribbe
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Central Vietnam

Abstract. Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in Central Vietnam and other regions of South East Asia severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in Central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) river basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB river basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity and frequency was analysed for different time scales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual scale was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. In accordance with the reports from local stakeholders, we found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the anthropogenically impacted reconstructed streamflow. We conclude that the calibrated model setup provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1888
Author(s):  
Yanyun Xiang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Yifei Bai ◽  
Leyuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Glacial Ice ◽  
Kaidu River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively.

Sustainable effect of coal mining on hydrological drought risk: a case study on Kuye river basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 2929-2943
Author(s):  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Jinpeng Wang ◽  
Runjuan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mining ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yao ◽  
Wen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Huai River Basin

: Hydrological droughts were characterized using the run-length theory and the AIC (Akaike information criterion) techniques were accepted to evaluate the modeling performance of nine probability functions. In addition, the copula functions were used to describe joint probability behaviors of drought duration and drought severity for the major tributaries of the Huai River Basin (HRB) which is located in the transitional zone between humid and semi-humid climates. The results indicated that: (1) the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper HRB is higher than that in the central HRB, while the duration of the hydrological drought is in reverse spatial pattern. The drought frequency across the Shiguan River along the south bank of the HRB is higher than the other two tributaries; (2) generalized Pareto distribution is the appropriate distribution function with the best performance in modelling the drought duration over the HRB; while the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution can effectively describe the probabilistic properties of the drought severity. Joe copula and Tawn copula functions are the best choices and were used in this study. Given return periods of droughts of <30 years, the droughts in the upper HRB are the longest, and the shortest are in the central HRB; (3) the frequency of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is higher than tributaries of the HRB. However, concurrence probability of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is lower than the tributaries of the HRB. The drought resistance capacity of HRB has been significantly improved, effectively reducing the impact of hydrological drought on crops after 2010.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

scholarly journals Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5477-5492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Linying Wang ◽  
Tian Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Groundwater Exploitation ◽  
Human Interventions

Abstract. Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 145-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Ashrafi ◽  
H. Gholami ◽  
M. R. Najafi
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Abstract Hydrological drought plays an important role in planning and managing water resources systems to meet increasing water demands due to population growth. In this study, the effects of climate change on the hydrological drought characteristics of the Gharasu basin, as one of the major sub-basins of the Karkheh river basin, are investigated. This river basin has experienced severe droughts, and floods, in recent years. The uncertainties in projected drought conditions are characterized based on a suite of 34 general circulation models (GCMs). Based on hydrological simulations over the historical period, 12 GCMs are selected to estimate projected runoff values and the corresponding streamflow drought index (SDI) in the future period. The ‘run theory’ is applied to evaluate the drought characteristics under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that uncertainties of drought projection under RCP8.5 are higher than under RCP4.5, where among different drought characteristics, the maximum uncertainty is detected for drought severity and maximum drought duration. Moreover, the uncertainty of drought projection in wet periods is greater than that in dry periods.

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